Recently, in the wheat market, due to official data showing that the output of summer grain wheat increased by 2.7%, the scale of domestic wheat imports increased significantly, and wheat imports increased by 15.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Superimposed, the high temperature weather in Futian, the purchase and sale of flour is cold, the bran goods have deteriorated, the mixed bran quotation of enterprises in many places has fallen below 0.7 yuan / catty, the spot wheat is under pressure, and the market fundamentals are empty!
However, in the past two days, the wheat market sentiment has improved significantly, the price increase of milling enterprises has gradually increased, and the bullish mentality of the market has become stronger, the specific analysis is as follows:
First, recently, due to the completion of wheat storage plans in many places and local grain depots, the market's concern about the cooling of policy support has become stronger! However, in the past two days, Beijing, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places, China Grain Reserves have added nearly 47 grain stations to increase wheat reserves, which has boosted market sentiment and stabilized the market mentality.
Second, at the end of this week, some milling enterprises mixed bran ex-factory quotation has a certain increase in the phenomenon, due to the low operating rate of enterprises, the supply of by-products is less, the supply pressure is reduced, some enterprises are difficult to make profits, and the price increase mentality has become stronger!
Therefore, with the support of many parties, wheat spot has a trend of stopping falling and rising! However, the situation of loose wheat supply fundamentals is difficult to improve, and milling companies also lack good news in the short term, demand follow-up or will continue to be under pressure, wheat prices are still facing greater resistance, in the short term, the spot market or will maintain a low shock trend!
According to data analysis, at present, the mainstream wheat producing areas in China, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the mainstream milling enterprises offer a stable price, among them, some enterprises in Shandong raised 0.3~0.5 points, the national average price of wheat is 1.244 yuan/jin, and the mainstream milling enterprises are quoted at about 1.225~1.265 yuan/jin!
Refined oil market: In the third quarter, the peak summer energy demand season, according to the experience of previous years, international oil prices are expected to be strong! After the beginning of June this year, the international oil price soared, in early July, the price of oil and cloth oil hit a new high, the domestic refined oil showed a rising trend for two consecutive rounds, and the price of gasoline and diesel rose by 320 yuan/ton and 305 yuan/ton, compared with June 28, up about 0.26 yuan/liter!
However, oil prices "rare reversal", in July, international oil prices showed a trend of rising and falling, in the last three weeks, the center of gravity of crude oil prices continued to decline, among them, WTI crude oil quotations fell by nearly 9.62%, which also contributed to the performance of the 15th oil price decline in the year, however, due to the narrow decline in crude oil prices in the last cycle, domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell by only 145 yuan / ton and 140 yuan / ton respectively!
According to the latest news, based on the downward trend of the crude oil market, entering the 16th pricing cycle of the year, referring to the July 29 WTI crude oil price of 75.81 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil price of 79.78 US dollars / barrel, international oil prices even hit a new low, down 1.35 US dollars in a single day, the third working day of this cycle, the domestic crude oil change rate of -3.82%, gasoline and diesel prices fell 140 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price of 92 gasoline is estimated to fall by about 0.1 ~ 0.13 yuan!
It is reported that recently, international oil prices are weak, on the one hand, demand concerns are still an important key to suppressing the rebound of oil prices, although the United States economy is strong, but due to the major economies in Asia and Europe, the fear of weak fuel demand performance is strong, which exacerbates the pessimistic attitude of the market; On the other hand, as the Palestinian-Israeli situation still has an improving trend, and United States crude oil extraction may increase, the pressure on energy supply will ease!
However, this week, the United States will release a new manufacturing ISM data and ADP employment data, which may temporarily drive the market's sentiment for the Fed's interest rate cut speculation, or support the crude oil market, therefore, this week's international oil prices may have the risk of rebounding against the trend!
To sum up, based on the interweaving of long and short crude oil markets, in the domestic market, the original rate of change in this round of pricing cycle maintains a negative trend, but the market is still facing the risk of bottoming out, and whether the final decline in oil prices can be realized is still facing certain uncertainty! The author will also continue to pay attention to the development of the market, and the next oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on August 8!
Attached: On July 31, the price of No. 92/95 gasoline at gas stations in all provinces and cities across the country
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