The Shanghai Composite Index rose in volume and returned to 2,900 points, and the trading sentiment heated up, focusing on the main line of overlapping industries

Public Securities Journal

2024-07-31 22:22Published on the official account of Jiangsu Dazhong Securities News

Image source: Visual China

On the last trading day of July, the market opened low and went high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising more than 2% to stand at 2,900 points, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rising more than 3%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rising 4.7%. At the same time, the volume of the two cities can be enlarged to 903.3 billion yuan, which is the first time since May 20 that it has risen above 900 billion yuan. So far, the A-share market in July has ended, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 1.07%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.28%. Industry analysts believe that the closing battle in July was active and active, and the trading sentiment heated up significantly, so it is recommended to remain optimistic in strategy, but the rhythm still needs to be controlled, and we can pay attention to the industries where the three main lines of over-falling rebound, policy and performance coincide.

Set the tone positively to help stabilize confidence

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and make arrangements for economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out that macroeconomic policies should continue to be more vigorous and more forceful. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, speed up the full implementation of the identified policy measures, and reserve and launch a number of incremental policy measures as soon as possible. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to coordinate risk prevention, strengthen supervision, promote development, boost investor confidence, and enhance the internal stability of the capital market.

CICC believes that the meeting set a positive tone, and once again stated that it will "boost investor confidence", and the expectation of policy strength will rise, helping the stock market confidence to stabilize and the valuation to recover. Dongguan Securities also believes that the recent monetary and fiscal policy ideas have begun to appear positive adjustments, and the future measures to stabilize growth are still expected to be further increased. Coupled with the risk release in the mid-reporting season in August and the orderly implementation of capital market reform, it may help gradually restore investor confidence, and the market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out.

On July 31, A-shares rose unilaterally. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.06% to 2,938.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.37% to 8,754.09 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.51% to 1,688.14 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 4.7% to 743.37 points. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 903.3 billion yuan, an increase of 303.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

Small and mid-cap index funds have seen significant increases

On the disk, the market reappeared in a general rising pattern, and more than 5,000 stocks rose in all A. Except for banks and public utilities, the rest of the sectors are in the red. Beauty care, social services, medicine and biology, non-bank finance, household appliances and other industries were among the top gainers.

The bull market "standard-bearer" brokerage stocks broke out strongly on the 31st, Jinlong shares took the lead in the daily limit, Guosheng Financial Holdings, Tianfeng Securities, Huaxin shares, and Capital Securities Pacific successively closed the board. Pharmaceutical stocks rebounded across the board, Xiangxue Pharmaceutical's "20cm" daily limit, Tongce Medical, Jinyu Medical, Zhaoyan New Drug Sealing Board, Aier Ophthalmology, Aimeike, Zhifei Biotechnology and other heavyweight stocks rose sharply. Most industries such as cultural tourism, computers, chemicals, and education have all risen sharply.

The high-dividend targets were differentiated, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Mobile, and China Telecom all falling more than 2%. China General Nuclear Power Corporation, China Nuclear Power, Huaneng International, Huaneng Hydropower, etc. have fallen. High-standard group stocks also appeared to concentrate on the cashing of chips, King Long Automobile, Volkswagen Utilities, Jinjiang Online, Volkswagen Transportation and other shares dived intraday, and Tengda Technology staged a quasi-"heaven and earth" board.

It is worth noting that on July 31, the turnover of funds such as CSI 300 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF and SSE 50 ETF continued to expand. The total turnover of the underlying index funds exceeded $17 billion. Among them, the small and medium-cap stock index fund has increased significantly, taking the Southern CSI 1000 ETF fund as an example, with a full-day turnover of 2.878 billion yuan, which is significantly larger than that of the previous days.

Focus on industries where two or more main lines overlap

"On Wednesday, the market moved higher driven by a combination of blockbuster meetings, regulatory personnel changes and the appreciation of the yuan. The yellow line led the white line at the time sharing, the money-making effect was highlighted, and the general rise of individual stocks, especially the varieties that dragged down the index in the early stage, also stopped falling and stabilized, and the market was improving. What's even more surprising is that the long-pent-up amount of energy has been released, which was enlarged by 168.4 billion yuan in the morning and maintained in the afternoon. With the significant return of incremental funds, securities and diversified finance have made concerted efforts, and the market is full of confidence, which has played a key role in improving trading confidence for many days. Wang Yuqian, an investment consultant at Yuanda, analyzed the market rally on the 31st.

Wang Yuqian further analyzed: "This kind of bottoming rebound often needs to be confirmed by a second step, unless it is particularly strong, but it must also be verified by pulling up for many consecutive days." In addition, the sustainability of securities also requires further cooperation from capital and sentiment. In addition, after the general rise, there will also be a process of emotional return to rationality, and differentiation is inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary to be calm in operation, optimistic in strategy, and the rhythm must still be controlled, and the direction should focus on low-level policy-driven fields, such as low-altitude and semiconductors. ”

Everbright Securities believes that if there is a rebound in the market in the future, the main line of over-falling rebound, the main line of policy and the main line of performance are all worthy of attention, considering the winning rate, it is recommended to pay attention to the industries where more than two main lines coincide, including electronics, communications, automobiles, light manufacturing, etc. In the medium and long term, in the current market environment, high-dividend sectors are worth long-term allocation, and the "Kote Valuation" that conforms to the policy is also worth paying attention to.

Reporter Chen Hui

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