TRIZ causal chain analysis tool leverages GPT to solve technical problems

TRIZ causal chain analysis tool leverages GPT to solve technical problems

introduction

A causal chain is an ordered sequence of events, and any one event in the causal chain will cause the next event to occur.

Causal chain analysis is an analytical tool for comprehensively identifying the shortcomings of engineering systems. Causal chain analysis, starting from the initial problem and disadvantage, analyzing its influencing factors, deriving intermediate disadvantages, and then continuing to dig out the influencing factors at the next level until the end disadvantages.

Causal analysis can be carried out in two directions:

• In the direction of seeking causes: analyzing the past from the present;
• Towards the direction of seeking results: analyzing the future from the present.

This paper attempts to use GPT tools to do causal chain analysis.

Air disaster in Ubelingen

The Uberingen crash was a serious aviation accident that occurred in 2002, and the following is a detailed description of the crash:

1. Overview of the accident

• Time: July 1, 2002, 21:35 PM local time (UTC+2).
• Location: Over the city of Uberlingen near Switzerland on the shores of Lake Constance in southern Germany.
• Aircraft involved: Russia Bashklian Airlines flight 2937 (BTC2937) and DHL Express flight 611 (DHX611).
• Result: Two planes collided in mid-air, killing all 71 people on board, leaving no survivors.

2. Details of the accident aircraft

1. Russia Bashklian Airlines flight 2937 (BTC2937)

• Type: Tu-154M airliner. Route: Originally planned to fly from Moscow, the capital of Russia, to Barcelona, Spain. Passengers and crew: 60 passengers (including 45 children from Ufa, Russia traveling to Spain) and 9 crew members.

1. DHL Express flight 611 (DHX611)

• Type: Boeing 757-200SF freighter. Route: The original route was from Bahrain International Airport to Brussels, Belgium via Bergamo International Airport in Italy. Crew: There are only two crew members, the captain is United Kingdom Paul · Philip, and the co-pilot is Canada Brandt · Campioni.

3. The cause of the accident

According to the Switzerland Accident Investigation Team, the main causes of the Uberlingen air crash include:

1. Mishandling of air traffic control systems:

• On the night of the incident, there was only one air traffic controller, Peter · Nelson, on duty at the air traffic control center of Switzerland Air Navigation Services, who was on two consoles at the same time, resulting in the collision time when the two planes were found to be conflicting. Nielsen's instructions in an emergency conflict with TCAS warnings, and the 611 flight he provided to Flight 2937 had incorrect bearing information.

1. Pilot decision-making in an emergency:

• After receiving the descent command from the air traffic controller, the crew of Flight 2937 ignored the climb warning of the collision avoidance system and continued to descend altitude. Flight 611 descended in altitude as prompted by the collision avoidance system, but failed to notify the air traffic controller of its condition in time because it was focused on Flight 2937 on the radar screen.

Fourth, the consequences and impact of the accident

1. Casualties: A total of 71 people on both planes were killed, including 45 elite teenagers from Russia, causing widespread concern and mourning from the international community.
2. Legal & Liability:

• After the incident, Peter ·, the air traffic controller on duty, was transferred from his post, but did not receive substantial punishment. This sparked strong resentment among the victims' families. In 2004, Vitaly · Karloyev, a Russian architect who lost his wife and children in a plane crash, assassinated Nelson and was subsequently sentenced to eight years in prison, but was eventually released early due to various efforts.

1. Aviation Industry Improvements: The crash prompted airlines to revisit their air traffic control systems and pilot training, emphasizing that pilots must follow the air collision avoidance system instructions in the event of a conflict between collision avoidance system recommendations and air traffic control instructions.

5. Accident commemoration and warning

As a serious aviation accident, the Ubelingen air crash not only brought great grief to the families of the victims, but also had a profound impact on the global aviation industry. It reminds us that in the field of aviation safety, negligence at any link can lead to catastrophic consequences. Therefore, it is important to ensure the safety of air transport by continuously strengthening aviation safety management and technology upgrading, and improving the professional quality of pilots and air traffic control personnel.

Prompts

## #参考如下模板, please establish a causal chain analysis of the Uberlingen air disaster!

(specific problems, technical difficulties) of the causal chain analysis, according to the following steps step by step:

1. Identify the initial shortcomings:

- Initial disadvantages: give specific problems.

2. Analyze the reasons layer by layer:

- Why is there Problem 1? Please list all possible causes: Cause 1, Cause 2......

- Why is Problem 2 existing? Please list all possible causes: Reason 3, Reason 4......

- For possible causes, please fully analyze the dimensions of man-machine-material method and environmental measurement, and explain which are the dimensions of man, machine, material, method, environment, and measurement, which are internal factors, which are external factors, and which are the main contradictions (internal factors) and secondary contradictions (external factors/conditions).

- Causes are shortcomings.

3. Establish a chain of cause and effect:

- Disadvantage 1 == > Disadvantage 2 == > Disadvantage 3

- Require all shortcomings to be listed and hung under the correct parent shortcomings.

4. Inspection and Verification:

- Double-check that all the shortcomings (or causes) are listed.

- 明确标识各子缺点的关系和父缺点的关系：OR、AND、+

5. Give a solution:

- Propose possible solutions for each shortcoming.

6. Identify key questions:

- Out of these shortcomings, identify the key shortcomings that lead to them (specific problems, technical difficulties).

7. Look for possible solutions:

- For each critical problem, look for possible solutions. Among the possible solutions, you need to choose the most suitable solution for yourself based on the specific situation.

Through the above causal chain analysis, we can deeply and thoroughly understand the causes (specific problems, technical difficulties) and propose possible solutions.

A thousand questions in the general sense

Okay, let's do a causal chain analysis of the 2002 Uberingen air disaster. The crash occurred near Uberlingen in southern Germany when two planes, a Tu-154 and a BAC 1-11, collided, killing 71 people.

1. Identify the initial shortcomings:

• Initial disadvantages: two planes collided in the air.

2. Analyze the reasons layer by layer:

Why is there a "collision of two planes in the air"?

• Cause 1: Air traffic control system malfunction.
• Reason 2: The pilot did not follow the avoidance instructions.
• Reason 3: TCAS (Airborne Collision Avoidance System) conflict.

Why is there an "air traffic control system failure"?

• Reason 4: Air traffic controllers are tired of working.
• Reason 5: Aging air traffic control equipment.
• Reason 6: Air traffic control software error.
• Reason 7: Inadequate air traffic control training.

Why is there a "pilot did not follow the avoidance order"?

• Reason 8: The pilot misunderstood the instructions of air traffic control.
• Reason 9: Pilot Doesn't React Properly to TCAS Warning.

Why is there a "TCAS conflict"?

• Cause 10: TCAS software logic issues.
• Cause 11: TCAS hardware failure.
• Reason 12: Improper TCAS maintenance.

Analysis from the dimension of man-machine material method environmental measurement:

• People: Reasons 4, 8, 9, 7
• Machine: Reasons 10, 11, 6
• Material: Reasons 5, 12
• Method: Reason 1
• Ring: No direct correlation
• Measure: No direct correlation

3. Establish a chain of cause and effect:

• Disadvantage 1 (collision) == 》Disadvantage 2 (air traffic control system failure) == 》Disadvantage 4 (controller fatigue), Disadvantage 5 (aging equipment), Disadvantage 6 (software error), Disadvantage 7 (insufficient training)
• Disadvantage 1==》Disadvantage 3 (Pilot did not follow instructions) == 》Disadvantage 8 (Misunderstanding instructions), Disadvantage 9 (Improper response)
• Disadvantage 1==》Disadvantage 3==》Disadvantage 10 (TCAS software logic), Disadvantage 11 (TCAS hardware failure), Disadvantage 12 (Improper maintenance of TCAS)

4. Inspection and Verification:

• 缺点4 AND 缺点5 AND 缺点6 AND 缺点7 导致 缺点2
• Disadvantage 8 OR Con 9 leads to Disadvantage 3
• CONS10 OR CONS11 OR CONS12 LEADS TO CONS3

5. Give a solution:

• Solution 4: Increase air traffic controller breaks.
• Solution 5: Update air traffic control equipment.
• Solution 6: Fix air traffic control software bugs.
• Solution 7: Enhance air traffic controller training.
• Solution 8: Improve pilot training to ensure clear understanding of instructions.
• Solution 9: Provide additional TCAS operational training to pilots.
• Solution 10: Upgrade the TCAS software logic.
• Solution 11: Replace the TCAS hardware.
• Solution 12: Maintain the TCAS system regularly.

6. Identify key questions:

• Key Drawbacks: Cause 6 (Air Traffic Control Software Error), Cause 10 (TCAS Software Logic Issue)

7. Look for possible solutions:

• Fix the bug in the air traffic control software urgently and test it thoroughly for Cause 6.
• For Cause 10: Upgrade the TCAS software now to ensure that the logic is correct and conflict-free.

Through this causal chain analysis, we can see that the key problems that led to the Uberlingen air crash were air traffic control software errors as well as TCAS software logic problems. Solving these problems can effectively prevent similar accidents from happening again.

reference

1. Causal Chain Analysis - Zhihu (zhihu.com)