【Reading guide】Blockbuster meeting, the interpretation of the five chief public offerings is here!
China Fund News reporter Li Shuchao, Fang Li, Zhang Ling
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and make arrangements for economic work in the second half of the year.
What positive signals did the Politburo meeting release? How will macro policies be adjusted in the second half of the year? What opportunities in the capital markets are worth paying attention to?
To this end, China Fund News interviewed Li Zhan, Chief Economist of China Merchants Fund Research Department, Wei Fengchun, Chief Economist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, Chen Hongbin, Chief Economist of Pengyang Fund, Yang Gang, Chief Economist of Golden Eagle Fund and Fund Manager of Equity Research Department, and Chen Xianshun, Chief Equity Strategy Analyst of Bosera Fund, to discuss topics such as macro policies, stabilizing the market and promoting consumption, and cultivating and expanding emerging industries.
Li Zhan: The key to boosting consumer demand is to increase residents' income, strengthen service consumption, and strengthen people's livelihood protection.
Wei Fengchun: This meeting has released a positive signal that long-term institutional reform and short-term policy operation go hand in hand, and the policy effect will be more effective starting from the short-term grasp of expanding demand.
Chen Hongbin: The meeting proposed that service consumption should be regarded as an important starting point for consumption expansion and upgrading, and support consumption in cultural tourism, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, etc., which is a powerful measure to deepen the supply-side structural reform and expand the organic combination of effective demand.
Yang Gang: The meeting's objective assessment of the current pressure, the re-emphasis on boosting consumption, and the re-mention of the capital market and other major statements have all made the market's risk appetite tend to pick up.
Chen Xianshun: It is expected that macro policies will be further strengthened in the second half of the year to ensure the continuation of the good economic situation in the first half of the year. 1. The policy effect of releasing positive signals will be more effectiveChina Fund News: What positive signals do you think will be released for this meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee? Which ones are you more concerned about? Wei Fengchun: This meeting has released a positive signal that long-term institutional reform and short-term policy operation go hand in hand, and the policy effect will be more effective starting from the short-term grasp of expanding demand. The following aspects are worth paying attention to: first, macro policies should continue to be more forceful; Second, it is necessary to focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand; the third is to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries; Fourth, it is necessary to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "involution" vicious competition. Chen Hongbin: The overall trend of steady progress and continued upward improvement of the economy has not changed, high-quality development has been solidly promoted, and the overall social situation has remained stable. The positive signals released by the meeting covered many aspects, including enhancing the confidence and stability of the capital market, effectively enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation, cultivating and expanding emerging industries and future industries, boosting consumption, continuing to stabilize real estate, and optimizing hidden debts. Yang Gang: There were important positive statements at the meeting, which may indicate that the policy side is changing from the marginal level. Among them, the objective evaluation of the current pressure (including the proposal of the "involution" of the industry), the re-emphasis on boosting consumption, and the re-mention of the capital market and other major expressions have all made the market's risk appetite tend to pick up. It emphasizes that the current macro policy should pay more attention to implementation, and at the same time, there will still be incremental measures to be launched in a timely manner, which is generally consistent with the short-term economic tone set at the Third Plenum, but the expression is more positive. Chen Xianshun: First, judge the current situation objectively and soberly. The meeting mentioned that the adverse effects of changes in the current external environment have increased, the effective domestic demand is insufficient, and the economic operation has been differentiated. Second, in view of the current situation, the meeting mentioned that macroeconomic policies should continue to be more forceful. After recognizing the situation, the meeting made an effective and timely response. Third, in the process of development, we must not only take the initiative to respond, but also maintain strategic focus. The meeting mentioned that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development and create conditions to accelerate the resolution of debt risks of local financing platforms. Li Zhan: In terms of the overall tone, this meeting set a positive tone and called for "unswervingly completing the annual economic and social development goals and tasks". On the one hand, the meeting believed that under the current economic situation, it is necessary to continue to exert policies; On the other hand, the meeting focused on taking "reform" as the starting point to promote various economic work.
In terms of specific work arrangements, this meeting will focus on expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year. At present, the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand is still the key to restricting economic recovery, combined with the recent policy force, we believe that the central government has a very clear understanding of the outstanding problems facing the current economy, so the economic work in the second half of the year will be very targeted.
2. Fiscal and monetary policies will work together China Fund News: The meeting pointed out that macro policies should continue to be more forceful. It is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and properly implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. What are your expectations for macro policy in the second half of the year? Chen Hongbin: From the perspective of the economic development cycle, both monetary and fiscal policies are very necessary conditions for economic recovery, and it is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together to maintain market stability and economic growth, and ensure that they work in the same direction and form a joint force. Wei Fengchun: First of all, we hope that the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy can be accelerated, the amount of bonds issued will be further increased, and investment in infrastructure construction, scientific and technological innovation, and people's livelihood security will be further increased, with stabilizing expectations as the core goal at present. Second, a prudent monetary policy should remain flexible and moderate, guide the reduction of market interest rates, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and strengthen the guidance of expectations. It is hoped that macroeconomic policies can be better coordinated and coordinated, and a policy synergy can be formed to cope with various uncertainties at home and abroad and maintain stable and healthy economic development. Li Zhan: The most anticipated thing in the second half of the year is fiscal policy. On the one hand, the "two major and two new" is still the focus of the policy. At the end of July, 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds were launched to support the "two new", and there is still some policy space for the use of ultra-long-term treasury bonds in the second half of the year, and the effect is expected to gradually appear. On the other hand, the issuance and use of special bonds in the first half of the year was slower than market expectations, which means that the issuance of special bonds in the second half of the year is expected to be accelerated, the use of space is relatively sufficient, and the corresponding recovery of the physical workload of infrastructure is worth looking forward to.
In terms of the overall tone of monetary policy, the Politburo meeting mentioned that the comprehensive financing cost of the society should be "stable and decreasing", which was weaker than the April Politburo meeting requiring the financing cost to fall. However, considering that the loose money in the first half of the year was constrained by the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, and the probability of interest rate cuts in overseas economies such as the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year increased, the space for the mainland's monetary policy was further opened after the exchange rate pressure eased. Interest rate cuts and RRR cuts can be expected in the second half of the year, and the rate cut may not be low.
Chen Xianshun: It is expected that macroeconomic policies will be further strengthened in the second half of the year to ensure the continuation of the good economic situation in the first half of the year. On the one hand, the acceleration of the issuance of special fiscal policy bonds and the implementation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will really stimulate physical investment; On the other hand, the effect of monetary policy squeezing water is gradually emerging, and the currency will be more stable to support the real economy. 3. Boosting Investor Confidence China Fund News: The meeting mentioned that it is necessary to coordinate risk prevention, strengthen supervision, promote development, boost investor confidence, and enhance the internal stability of the capital market. Wei Fengchun: "Coordinating risk prevention and strong supervision" emphasizes the need to ensure the healthy operation of the market, prevent the emergence of systemic risks, and at the same time increase supervision, maintain market order, and create a fair and transparent environment for investors. "Promoting development" indicates that it is necessary to promote the innovation and development of the capital market and improve the efficiency of its resource allocation. "Boosting investor confidence" is key, and the boost in confidence will help attract more capital to the market and increase market vitality. "Improving the intrinsic stability of the capital market" can help reduce market volatility and make the market more stable. In short, these measures will jointly promote the stable and positive development of the capital market and provide strong support for economic growth. Li Zhan: We think the focus is on emphasizing the "intrinsic stability" of the capital market. Since the beginning of this year, the regulators have implemented the important strategic deployment of the new "National Nine Articles", focused on establishing and improving the market system and institutional mechanisms that are compatible with the high-quality development of the economy, and promoted the steady and long-term development of the capital market and achieved its own high-quality development. It should be said that after the continuous improvement of the system in the first half of the year, the "1+N" policy system has continued to exert efforts in three aspects: strict control of listing, strict and continuous supervision, and increased supervision of delisting, and the internal stability of the capital market has a relatively solid foundation. Chen Hongbin: To understand the internal stability, we first need to understand the "transformation pains" expressed at the meeting, which as an objective law and a necessary stage of economic development, is reflected in both the macro economy and the capital market, and it is not necessary to exaggerate the panic, but also to pay enough attention to the system response. In the throes of the transition between the old and the new drivers, it is even more necessary to enhance the consistency and coherence of macroeconomic and other policies, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the capital market. Chen Xianshun: Risk prevention and control is the eternal theme of financial work, financial services for the real economy is the fundamental purpose, whether it is to prevent and control risks or promote development, reasonable and effective supervision is very necessary. Under the trinity of "risk prevention, strong supervision, and promotion of development", investor confidence is expected to be gradually boosted, and the internal stability of the capital market will be significantly improved. Fourth, there will be positive changes in promoting consumption into key consumer demandChina Fund News: The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand. What is the key to boosting consumer demand? As the focus of economic policies shifts more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, what positive changes will be produced in subsequent consumer demand? Li Zhan: The key to boosting consumer demand is to increase residents' income, strengthen service consumption, and strengthen people's livelihood protection. Combined with the previous policy force, the positive changes in consumer demand in the future are concentrated in the field of bulk consumer goods. In particular, at the end of July, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Several Measures on Supporting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in", and arranged about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the "two new". Chen Hongbin: Consumption is the focus of steady growth in the second half of the year. At present, the consumption demand of residents to improve the quality of life is not only the traditional clothing, food, housing and transportation, the meeting proposed to take service consumption as an important starting point for consumption expansion and upgrading, and support consumption such as cultural tourism, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, etc., which is the correct measure to deepen the supply-side structural reform and expand the organic combination of effective demand. Chen Xianshun: The key to boosting consumer demand lies in the concerted efforts of various aspects, including policy support, market innovation, the improvement of residents' income, and the optimization of the consumption environment. As the focus of economic policies shifts more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, there will be positive changes in subsequent consumer demand, such as the optimization of consumption structure, the growth of service consumption, the improvement of the consumption environment, and the drive of technological innovation to increase demand. Wei Fengchun: The key to boosting consumer demand is to increase residents' income, so as to increase residents' spending power, improve the consumption environment, and enhance consumer confidence. As economic policies shift more to benefit people's livelihood and promote consumption, there may be three positive changes in follow-up consumer demand: first, the consumer market will be more active, and the scale of consumption is expected to further expand; Second, the consumption structure will continue to be optimized, and more attention will be paid to quality consumption and service consumption; Third, the role of consumption in stimulating economic growth will be more obvious. 5. Supporting the development of gazelles and unicorns in the capital market will play an active role China Fund News: The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries. It is necessary to strongly and effectively support the development of gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises. How do you see the role of gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises in the development of new quality productivity? What role can the capital market play in nurturing and expanding emerging industries? Chen Hongbin: For the first time, the meeting proposed to "support the development of gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises". Gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises are prominent representatives of innovative enterprises, an important force for the development of new quality productivity, and the key to developing new kinetic energy and accelerating the transformation of new and old kinetic energy. In addition to the technology of these enterprises themselves, the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries also need to have a good industrial environment and the external force of the capital market to promote.
From the perspective of economics and practice, capital with higher risk appetite has a faster decision-making and response speed for new technologies, and can use the capital market to give full play to the leverage effect of capital, help these enterprises solve the problem of resource constraints in the rapid development stage, enhance market competitiveness, and greatly improve social labor productivity.
Wei Fengchun: In the development of new quality productivity, gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises play an important role. They usually represent enterprises with strong innovation ability, fast growth rate, and great development potential, which can promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and lead the development of emerging industries. The capital market can play a multi-faceted role in cultivating and expanding emerging industries, such as providing financial support, promoting resource allocation, stimulating innovative activities, and enhancing corporate value and popularity. The effective operation of the capital market can provide a good development environment and growth space for enterprises in emerging industries, and help them develop and grow rapidly. Chen Xianshun: Gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises play a vital role in the development of new quality productivity. They are representatives of high-growth science and technology enterprises, with leading and creative technology, and their strong innovation ability and market potential will provide new growth points for the economy, and are the key force to promote economic transformation and industrial upgrading.
In this process, the capital market can provide multi-faceted support for emerging industries. On the one hand, the capital market provides financial support for unicorn companies, and helps them grow rapidly through multiple rounds of financing by private equity investment institutions. On the other hand, the capital market helps unicorns to further expand their scale and influence while providing them with broader financing channels and higher market recognition. The "enablement" investment in the capital market will have a negative effect on enterprises and help them improve their corporate governance and strategic planning.
Li Zhan: Gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises are an important driving force for the development of new quality productivity, and an important vane to measure the innovation ability and innovation ecology of a country and region. The capital market can increase investment and financing policies for gazelle enterprises and unicorn enterprises, mainly to increase the scale of venture capital financing and improve the green channel for listing and financing of science and technology enterprises. By strengthening the financing support for science and technology enterprises, we will realize "early investment", "small investment" and "new investment", and promote the gathering of financial resources in the field of innovation. 6. Escort the steady growth of the economy China Fund News: The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. It is mentioned that it is necessary to implement new policies to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. What positive progress has been made in the current risk mitigation work in the real estate sector and the local debt sector? What will be the intensity and rhythm of subsequent real estate policy regulation? Wei Fengchun: In the field of real estate and local debt, the mainland has made some positive progress, such as the gradual stabilization of housing prices in some areas, and the risk of local debt has been controlled to a certain extent. The follow-up real estate policy regulation and control may be dynamically adjusted according to market conditions, and the pace will be more flexible, so as to achieve the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and the effective prevention and resolution of risks. At the same time, more attention may be paid to the construction of long-term mechanisms to promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. Chen Hongbin: At present, good progress has been made in the resolution of real estate and local bonds, the risks of the real estate industry are controllable, and the credit spreads of local urban investment have remained low, and good results have been achieved. We believe that the goal of regulation in the real estate sector is very clear, which is stability and risk prevention. On the basis of the frequent real estate policies this year, it is expected that the follow-up real estate policies may still be strengthened, but the city-specific policies will still be an important principle. In the context of coordinating security and development, the real estate market should pay more attention to its role in ensuring people's livelihood and meeting the needs of improved housing in the future. Li Zhan: At this stage, the positive tone of the real estate policy has not changed much, focusing on the implementation of the policies that have been introduced, emphasizing that "it is necessary to implement the new policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market", and continue to "adhere to the combination of digesting the stock and optimizing the increment", and the main focus is to "actively support the acquisition of stock commercial housing for affordable housing". Considering that there is still a lot of room for optimization in the promotion of the acquisition of the current stock of commercial housing, the recent policies are more inclined to digest the stock, and the follow-up policies may be more of a digestion policy for the stock of commercial housing. Chen Xianshun: At present, positive progress has been made in the risk mitigation work in the real estate field and the local debt field, the risks in the real estate field have been cleared in an orderly manner, and the local debt debt matters have been gradually promoted. Subsequently, in order to build a new model of real estate development, the real estate policy will continue to adhere to the combination of digesting the stock and optimizing the increment, actively support the acquisition of the stock of commercial housing for affordable housing, and further do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing. 7. Market risk appetite will be boosted, artificial intelligence, new consumption and other fields are worth paying attention toChina Fund News: The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee mentioned the new quality of productivity in an all-round way, and the fields of consumption, infrastructure, and equipment renewal have also been deployed, mapping to the capital market, which investment opportunities are worth paying attention to? Li Zhan: Important meetings have been held, which has boosted the overall risk appetite of the market. There are several points worth paying attention to in the second half of the year: first, the theme of "new quality productivity", focusing on equipment updates, low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence and other directions; the second is to grasp the current phased opportunities in the short-term dimension and focus on automobiles; Third, the medium-term dimension will continue to strengthen the direction of prosperity in the second half of the year, including nonferrous metals, public utilities, coal, agriculture and animal husbandry, etc.; Fourth, the acceleration of government bond issuance in the second half of the year will lead to an increase in physical workload, and some opportunities for the increase in operating rate and demand in the infrastructure chain are also worth paying attention to. Wei Fengchun: First, with the continuous development of artificial intelligence technology, investment opportunities in the field of artificial intelligence and intelligent manufacturing are worth paying attention to. Second, biotechnology and medical health are one of the important directions of the future industry. Third, with the improvement of residents' income level and the change of consumption concept, investment opportunities in the field of consumption upgrading and new consumption patterns are worthy of attention. Chen Xianshun: In the short term, the recovery process of risk appetite is slow, and the market is still dominated by structural markets. From a medium- to long-term perspective, after a continuous correction, the valuation and trading indicators of the A-share market have returned to historical extremes, and the medium-term opportunities in the current position of the market still outweigh the risks. Structurally, the all-round mention of new productivity at the meeting will enhance the certainty of the reform and development of science and technology enterprises, and related investment opportunities are also worth paying attention to. Yang Gang: In the field of technology manufacturing, it is expected that there will continue to be repeated rotation opportunities for high and low switching in the short and medium term, and in addition to the trend of the AI industry, focus on opportunities in the direction of new energy. In terms of consumption, some high-quality targets in the industry that have benefited from strong policy expectations and significant drawdowns in the early stage can be focused on.
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Xu Wen