Recently, Viet Nam Prime Minister Pham Chinh Minh arrived in New Delhi for a three-day visit to India, which is worth mentioning that this is also Viet Nam's first visit to India in 10 years. However, during the meeting, Viet Nam did not forget to use the South China Sea issue as a breakthrough to deepen relations with India, and combined with Viet Nam's other recent developments, we should also be cautious on the South China Sea issue.
From public information, we know that although Pham Zhengming's visit was carried out at the invitation of Prime Minister Modi, Viet Nam also showed a very positive attitude, saying that India is Viet Nam's "top important partner and trusted friend", and the tone of this visit is very high. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India also actively cooperated, saying that Viet Nam is a key pillar of the "Look East Policy" and an important partner of the "Indo-Pacific Vision".
During the meeting, the two sides signed a number of cooperation agreements in the fields of customs capacity building, agricultural research and education, legal fields, radio and television, medicinal plants, etc. On the trade front, the two countries pledged to work together to increase bilateral trade from the current $14.8 billion to the "future" of $20 billion.
But in the area of security, the statements of the two countries seem to be targeted.
[India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) and Viet Nam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh hand in hand]
First, Modi pledged a $300 million credit line to Viet Nam to help Viet Nam strengthen its ability to respond to maritime threats, with a particular emphasis on India's support for "development" rather than "expansion."
Second, the two sides also reached an agreement on the South China Sea issue, emphasizing the importance of ensuring peace, stability, security, freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. To that end, India has pledged to share information with Viet Nam and work together to make the South China Sea a water of peace, stability, friendship and cooperation.
Finally, the two sides agreed to continue to work together to build a free, open, rule-based, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
It is not difficult to find that although the two sides did not clearly indicate where the "threat" came from in their statements, it is self-evident who India and Vietnam regard as potential adversaries in light of the current situation in the South China Sea. Including foreign media reports, they also pointed out that the above statement was made against the background of differences between China and Viet Nam over the South China Sea issue.
【U.S.-Philippines Joint Military Exercise】
The differences in the mouth of foreign media actually refer to the fact that some time ago, Viet Nam submitted to the United Nations the so-called submission of the continental shelf in South China, requesting that the continental shelf be expanded beyond the current 200 nautical miles. Just last month, the Philippines made a similar move.
In addition, the Viet Nam is also preparing for the first joint exercise with the Philippine Coast Guard, and the Philippine side has made no secret of its intention to "confront" China with the Philippines in Viet Nam.
And Viet Nam's desire to pull India into the game has long been traced.
In early July, Viet Nam extended its oil extraction contract with India's state-owned oil company to continue illegal oil and gas exploration activities in waters under Chinese jurisdiction. But according to an India official, the area chosen by Viet Nam and India has no commercial value and is highly risky to exploit, so the two countries chose to sign the agreement out of strategic rather than economic considerations, in order to help India maintain its presence in the South China Sea.
【Viet Nam Coast Guard Ship Goes to the Philippines to Exchange Experience】
If we go back further, we can see that Viet Nam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc visited United States in late May and Japan in early June, during which the South China Sea issue was an important topic of discussion and, like India's statement, stressed the importance of maintaining freedom of maritime navigation and overflight and other legitimate uses of the sea.
From the above series of actions, it can be seen that Viet Nam is becoming more and more proactive in introducing extraterritorial forces to safeguard its own interests, and seems to be willing to take certain strategic risks and exert sufficient strategic pressure on China. Of course, this does not rule out the incitement of some foreign countries, which has caused Viet Nam to have some unrealistic strategic illusions.
Therefore, in my opinion, although Viet Nam will not be willing to become a proxy of foreign countries like the Philippines, it is also being used by other countries when it uses them, affecting the stability of Sino-Vietnamese relations.
In the face of this situation, China also needs to be prepared to resolve conflicts through cooperation and continue to strengthen diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, and on the other hand, through multilateral and bilateral mechanisms, strengthen cooperation with Viet Nam in the economic, cultural and security fields, enhance mutual understanding and trust, and stifle potential conflicts in the cradle.