#文章首发挑战赛#
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Text: Xu Xu.
Edited by Xu Xu.
At a time when global science and technology competition is becoming increasingly fierce, a blockbuster news has stirred up a thousand waves like a stone, instantly igniting a heated discussion of international public opinion.
According to an exclusive report by Reuters, the United States government is considering easing restrictions on allies such as Japan, Korea and the Netherlands to export chip-making equipment to China. This news is like a ray of warm sunshine in the cold winter, bringing long-lost hope to the semiconductor industry.
Is United States' move a sincere expression of détente, or is it a deliberate plan for another purpose? Let's unravel the mystery of this international game.
Tracing back to the source of this chip dispute, we have to mention the new export control rules issued by the United States Department of Commerce in October 2022.
At that time, the United States severely restricted the export of advanced chips and related manufacturing equipment to China on the grounds of "national security" and pressured allies to follow suit.
This move has caused huge shocks in the global semiconductor industry chain, not only affecting the development of China's chip industry, but also causing relevant enterprises in Japan, Korea and the Netherlands to suffer heavy losses.
Less than a year later, however, United States policy appears to have taken a subtle turn.
According to people familiar with the matter, the United States is considering allowing Netherlands' ASML to sell DUV lithography machines to China, while easing restrictions on companies such as Tokyo Electron in Japan and Samsung in Korea.
This change has undoubtedly injected a shot in the arm for the rigid situation.
As soon as the news broke, it immediately triggered a strong reaction from all sides.
The governments of Japan, Korea and Netherlands are cautiously optimistic about this, but have not yet taken a public position.
A senior Japan diplomat, who asked not to be named, told me: "We are closely following the development, but we cannot make any conclusions at this time." "
A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said at a regular press conference:
"We hope that relevant countries will abandon the zero-sum mentality and stop politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing economic and trade issues."
The United States Department of Commerce issued a statement saying:
"Our policies are constantly being evaluated and adjusted to ensure that they are able to respond effectively to the changing global situation."
On the surface, United States' move appears to be a compromise with its allies, but in reality it contains deep strategic considerations.
This is a clever move by the United States in the geopolitical game. Through moderate deregulation, the United States has appeased the discontent of allies such as Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands on the one hand, and maintained the stability of the "small courtyard and high wall" alliance; On the other hand, it can control the development speed of China's chip industry to a certain extent and achieve "precision strikes".
This reflects United States' rebalancing of the global semiconductor supply chain. A senior Wall Street analyst told me:
"The United States realizes that it is unrealistic to completely cut off China's ties with the global semiconductor industry, and may instead accelerate China's independent research and development process." The current strategy is to maintain a moderate degree of openness, while firmly controlling the advantages in the high-end chip field. "
This is also the consideration of United States's own economic interests. Strict export controls have not only affected the earnings of United States companies, but also raised concerns in the domestic technology community.
Relaxing restrictions can alleviate these stresses to some extent.
This policy adjustment will have a profound impact on the global semiconductor industry pattern.
In the short term, related enterprises in Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands and other countries will usher in a rebound in performance, and the tension in the global semiconductor supply chain will also be eased to a certain extent.
However, in the long run, this could exacerbate the fragmentation of the global semiconductor industry. As one international relations expert noted:
"United States' strategic intent is to create a 'controlled and open' environment that maintains pressure on China while maintaining technological leadership." This may lead to the formation of a 'dual circulation' pattern in the global semiconductor industry. "
For China, this is both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the easing of restrictions has provided a respite for Chinese companies; On the other hand, it may also affect China's sense of urgency to accelerate independent research and development to some extent.
Looking ahead, the international game in the field of chips will continue.
United States is likely to adopt a more flexible "precision control" strategy, setting differentiated thresholds in different technology areas.
China, for its part, is likely to continue to ramp up its R&D efforts while seeking technical cooperation with other countries.
It is worth noting that with the rise of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the chip dispute may spread to the wider tech sector. An industry insider revealed to me:
"The next battlefield is likely to be AI chips, and whoever takes the lead in this field will be able to take the initiative in the future scientific and technological competition."
Netizens are hotly discussed: There are different opinions
This incident quickly aroused heated discussions among netizens on the Internet, with different opinions and opinions.
Some netizens believe that the United States' move is to ease the pressure on the global semiconductor supply chain:
"This is the inevitable trend of globalization, and no country can truly monopolize the entire industrial chain. The deregulation of the United States shows that they are also aware of the disadvantages of isolationism. "
Some netizens expressed doubts about United States' intentions:
"What kind of kindness is this, it's clearly a scheme! United States wants China to rely on imports for mid-range chips, thereby dampening our enthusiasm for independent research and development. We can't be fooled! "
There are also netizens who analyze from an economic point of view:
"Don't forget, the chip industry is a community of interests. United States companies also need the Chinese market, and this deregulation may also have pressure from Wall Street. "
Some netizens showed optimism:
"In any case, this is good news for the mainland chip industry. We can take this opportunity to 'overtake in corners' and accelerate independent innovation." "
Some netizens put forward unique insights from a global perspective:
"This may be that United States is paving the way for a future 'chip alliance'." They want to bring their allies together and work together to set new rules of the game. We have to be prepared. "
There are even netizens who think of environmental protection issues:
"Semiconductor manufacturing consumes a lot of energy, and if the industry really moves to China, what about our carbon neutrality goal? This question also needs to be carefully considered. "
These comments fully reflect the wisdom and insight of netizens, as well as the complexity and multifaceted nature of the issue.
The chip war, on the surface, is a technical battle, but in fact it is a deep game related to national strength and the global pattern.
United States' current policy adjustment is neither a good-natured concession nor outright malice, but a careful layout after weighing the pros and cons.
For China, it is necessary not only to seize the rare respite, but also to maintain a sober strategic determination and unswervingly follow the road of independent innovation.
In this war without gunpowder, only by maintaining strategic concentration and speeding up independent innovation can we remain invincible in future international competition.
Let's wait and see how this chip game plays out and how it will reshape the global technology map.
Finally, I would like to ask the question: In this global competition for technology, which side will the balance of cooperation and confrontation ultimately tilt towards?
This answer may determine the future direction of human scientific and technological civilization.