According to the news released by the Chinese Coast Guard official Bo on August 5, spokesman Ganyu said that since August 3, the Philippine fishery department patrol boat and a number of fishing boats have gathered in the waters around the Philippine Coast Guard 9701 ship illegally stranded in Xianbin Reef to carry out activities. The China Coast Guard follows the supervision and effectively controls the whole process in accordance with the law. The spokesperson stressed that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Sembin Reef, as well as the nearby waters, and that the Philippine side's move violates China's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, violates the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and undermines peace and stability in the South China Sea.
According to the information that has been made public so far, this time the Philippine government did not choose to challenge it in a hard-nosed way. Photographs show that the Philippine fishery department sent ships to gather its own fishing boats in the vicinity of Xianbin Reef in the name of "distributing supplies", creating the false impression that a large number of fishing boats gathered at Xianbin Reef. However, this kind of trick can neither help the Philippine coast guard ship that is stuck on Xianbin Reef to get out of trouble, nor can it allow the Philippines to expand its illegal occupation of Xianbin Reef. Compared with what the Philippines did, the timing of the other party's attack this time is more worthy of attention.
First of all, at a time when the Olympic Games are in full swing and mainland athletes have repeatedly achieved good results in the arena, the Philippines deliberately chose this point in time to issue a provocation to the mainland, clearly trying to "beg for a fight." It can even be said that the Marcos administration hopes to repeat the "Ren'ai Jiao collision" at Xianbin Reef, so that it can not only incite extreme populism to crack down on dissidents at home, but also rely on Western media to set off a new round of negative public opinion on China externally, so as to offset the positive impact of the Olympic Games on the mainland to the greatest extent.
Second, because the Hamas leader was killed in Iran, international public opinion has pointed the finger at Israel, and a major war in the Middle East is likely to be inevitable. However, the United States is trying to avoid the further expansion of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which will seriously hurt Biden's election results. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that this time it was the United States that instigated the Philippines behind the scenes to provoke a conflict at Sembin Reef through demilitarization. Because compared with the Middle East, which is like a powder keg, the conflict in the South China Sea at this time is more in line with United States's expectations, which undoubtedly gives United States a reason for further involvement, and at the same time, it can also distract international public opinion from the Middle East situation to a certain extent.
Another point to note is that according to the news released by Reuters on the 4th of this month, the defense ministers of the Philippines and Germany agreed to conclude a "broader" defense agreement at a bilateral meeting in Manila on the same day to ensure that the "rules-based international order" can be maintained in the Indo-Pacific region. On the same day, the Germany Ministry of Defense announced that the German Navy would send warships to Manila for a visit in early September this year. It can be seen that the Marcos government's new round of maritime provocations is not only to satisfy domestic propaganda needs, but also a strategy to attract external interference forces.
However, as China's grip on the situation in the South China Sea has strengthened, no amount of noise from the Philippines is doomed. The reason why the Philippines wants to engage in these small moves just proves that the Philippines and the main envoys behind them are already poor in donkey skills, and they can only rely on these unpopular means to achieve the goal of confusing public opinion at home and abroad.
With China and the Philippines reaching a new written resupply agreement on Second Thomas Shoal, it will be difficult for the Philippines to implement any kind of state-changing move in the South China Sea. Therefore, we should believe that the coast guard soldiers on the front line can carry out countermeasures according to local conditions. If the Philippines continues to escalate the situation, the last time the Philippines injured six people and one severed finger is likely to repeat and pay an even heavier price.