Text丨Niu Ben
Huawei HiSilicon, which was still imposing yesterday, took a breath today, and by the end of the day, the big A that lacked the theme staged a scene of more than 4,600 companies waiting to rise.
Has the Huawei HiSilicon concept been hyped up? Apparently not. It's just a succession of speculation, and the related concept stocks have accumulated huge gains, and the main force has begun to take profits, after all, most of these companies have not yet cashed in their performance. According to past experience, Huawei HiSilicon will make a comeback in a few days, but at that time, it is necessary to embrace the core of the industrial chain and high-performing companies (for the specific list, please refer to the headline article on this official account yesterday), otherwise there is still a risk of taking over at a high level.
The hype of Huawei's HiSilicon concept is the main line of technology, which belongs to the category of growth stocks, and while the main force is taking profits, a large amount of funds has flowed to the high-dividend (dividend) sectors represented by banks, home appliances, and nonferrous metals, which have once become one of the few industries in the market that have turned red. Many of the stocks performed well, such as home appliance stocks Chen Yi Intelligent, non-ferrous stocks Yi'an Technology, etc., have touched the "20CM" limit, in addition, the "workers and peasants in the establishment of diplomatic relations" five major state-owned banks continued to hit a record high intraday, home appliance stocks Huaxiang shares, non-ferrous stocks Rongjie shares, Huayou Cobalt, etc. have followed up.
Since the beginning of this year, the high-dividend sector has been one of the most beautiful in the market. If it closes at noon today, only 4 of the 31 major industries in Shenwan have a positive year-to-date increase, and the sub-sectors with high dividends account for the majority, of which the highest annual increase is banks, close to 20%, followed by utilities and household appliances, which are about 7% and 2% respectively (see attached chart). Now back to the C position, it is also expected, for this kind of opportunity, the author has been highlighted in the previous release of the July, August strategy, details can be seen in "July, will add a new strong main line!" "In August, the main line pushed by the top ten brokerages appeared".
Why would the main force choose high dividends at this time? The main reason may be the higher certainty of performance, which is the opposite of growth stocks such as Huawei's HiSilicon concept. For example, banks, at present, 10 companies have released interim reports, and all 10 companies have achieved profitability and year-on-year growth, of which Bank of Hangzhou's profit growth rate has exceeded 20%, and Qilu Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Sunong Bank are also above 10%.
The same is basically true for utilities, home appliances, nonferrous metals and other industries. Among them, 28 utility stocks released interim reports, with 27 profits and a year-on-year increase of 18 earnings; 23 home appliance stocks released interim reports, with 21 profits and a year-on-year increase of 16; 33 non-ferrous stocks released interim reports, with 31 profits and 22 year-on-year earnings. Gauss Bell, Yongshan Lithium, Xinke Materials and other related constituents have doubled their performance (see Table 1).
Since entering the second half of the year, the investment logic of these high-dividend industries has been continuously strengthened. For example, banks benefit from the decline in interest rates, and in the view of an industry institution, there is still a need and space for the mainland interest rate to fall in the medium and long term, so high-dividend bank stocks may have investment and allocation value in a long time. It pointed out that the current round of bank stocks is mainly due to the increase in the allocation demand for high-dividend banks and index weighted stocks, and the allocation of institutions is expected to further increase while the capital side remains relatively stable.
Another example is nonferrous metals, one of the most direct fuses is the price increase, and the current gold, copper, antimony, tin, tungsten and so on have an upward trend. Among them, boosted by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the recent spot gold price exceeded $2,500 per ounce for the first time, refreshing the highest record set just last month, and some industry insiders expect that gold will rise to $2,700 next. Therefore, gold stocks have recently moved in the secondary market, and today it has been adjusted, but under the endorsement of the continuous rise in gold prices, gold stocks will still receive the attention of the main force.
Copper, antimony, tin, tungsten and other metals are almost the same logic, and the author here focuses on the small metal variety antimony.
Antimony is known as "industrial monosodium glutamate", with a wide range of downstream applications, which can be used to manufacture alloys, often used in the manufacture of lead-acid batteries, chemical pipelines, etc., and high-purity antimony metal can be used to produce semiconductors, electric heating devices, far-infrared devices and military products, etc., the United States, Japan, etc., have long included antimony in strategic resources. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that from September 15, the mainland will implement export controls on antimony and other items (including antimony ore and raw materials, antimony metal and products, antimony oxides, etc.). In the view of a number of research institutions, the price is expected to increase as the strategic value of antimony emerges.
From the perspective of the main business composition, there are currently three listed companies with antimony-related products, namely Huayu Mining (domestic self-produced antimony concentrate, foreign self-produced antimony), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (antimony concentrate) and Hunan Gold (Chenzhou Mining Antimony Trioxide), combined with the latest annual report, Huayu Mining's antimony-related products may account for a higher proportion of revenue, and Hunan Gold's antimony products have the most complete categories (see Table 2).
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(The individual stocks mentioned in this article are for example analysis only and are not intended as a recommendation for trading.) ）