PVC Futures Analysis
On September 11, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5332, the highest price: 5395, the lowest price: 5245, the open interest: 980595, the settlement price: 5320, yesterday's settlement: 5360, down 40, the daily volume: 1503536 lots, the precipitation funds: 3.700 billion, and the outflow: 11,000.
A comprehensive list of prices by region
RMB/ton
PVC spot market
The mainstream transaction price trend of the domestic PVC market was slightly differentiated, and the price was slightly adjusted in various regions. Valuation comparison: North China fell 20 yuan/ton, East China was stable, South China fell 20-30 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell 50 yuan/ton, Central China fell 30 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell 50 yuan/ton. Some upstream PVC production enterprises have lowered by 40-50 yuan/ton, including the synchronous decline in the price of off-site warehouses, and some enterprises have maintained a stable wait-and-see, but the decline in ex-factory prices has not heard of more orders. Futures fell first and then rose, the spot market price offer in the morning slightly downward, in the afternoon part of the upward repair, but the downstream feedback on this is flat, basis offer slightly adjusted, including East China basis offer 01 contract - (100-150-200), South China 01 contract - (0-140), North China 01 contract - (230-270-330), southwest part of the low-price supply heard 01 contract - (510). In the late afternoon, the price rose at the end of the day, and the spot market did not show good feedback, but the enthusiasm for inquiry was weak.
From a futures perspective
The night price of the PVC2501 contract fell significantly at the open, with an intraday low of 5245, and then bottomed out and rebounded. The price began in the morning in a narrow range, and the direction of intraday fluctuations was not clear, and the price rose at the end of the afternoon. The 2501 contract fluctuated in the range of 5245-5395 throughout the day, the spread was 150, the 01 contract increased its position by 38839 lots, and the position was 980595 so far, and the 2505 contract closed at 5638, with a position of 139632 lots.
PVC market outlook
Futures: PVC2501 the low point of the contract price refreshed the previous low of the main connection, and the lowest point of today's disk was 5245, but then bottomed out and rebounded, and there was a certain reduction of more than 38,800 hands, and the short order took profits. In terms of transactions, the short opening is still the mainstay, but the empty level has also increased accordingly. At midday closing, the main domestic futures contracts were mixed. The European line rose by more than 12%, lithium carbonate rose by nearly 8%, and coke, apples, Shanghai silver and coking coal rose by more than 2%. In terms of declines, asphalt and styrene fell by more than 2%, LPG, pulp, SC crude oil, hogs, low-sulfur fuel oil, and glass fell by more than 1%, and the cultural commodity index also hit a new low today. On the whole, the PVC market may still be dominated by a low and wide range in the short term, and the performance of the range of 5250-5500 is observed.
Spot: futures disk in the night session after the refresh of the low, the morning began to be in the late stage of the two markets in the atmosphere of the downturn, the merchant offer in the morning session also appeared a certain downward performance, but in the late afternoon price rise, the spot market also followed the rise to recover the decline, the downstream feedback on this is flat, regardless of the price of the rise and fall of the inquiry enthusiasm is not good, and at the current time node, the expectation of the golden nine and silver ten is stifled, the traditional peak season is currently delayed under the trend of weak overall commodity performance. PVC supply and demand level is still not a big novelty, PVC plant load is stable, but the calcium carbide market has been strong recently, and the price has risen all the way. It is a standout among the weak chlor-alkali products, but PVC has always performed poorly. The constraints of high inventory have led to the two cities being empty and the opportunities for operation are reduced, and the profits of the spot are also compressed, and the PVC spot market may continue to be low-level and narrow-range in the short term.
PVC spread arbitrage analysis
Domestic PVC index
According to Tu Duoduo data, on September 11, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5235.85, down 17.12, or 0.326%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5519.14, down 24.49, or 0.442%, the calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide index spread was 283.29.
PVC warehouse receipt daily report
PVC long and short positions are on the list
The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only