Is Mexico boxing star Carneiro Alvarez in decline? Is he still the same fighter he was a few years ago? Opponents argue that discussing Alvarez's decline is an excuse for his poor performances in the past few games, but the reality is that the 34-year-old Alvarez is not young anymore, and more importantly, the data speaks for itself, so Alvarez's decline is a natural law that cannot be reversed.
Alvarez competed in the 140-pound super-welterweight division at the age of 15 and rose through the ranks to 154-pound super-welterweight, but in 2024, he's a different story.
On his way to becoming a professional leader, Alvarez has completed 14 fights at 154 pounds, four fights at 160 pounds in the middleweight division, and most of his 11 fights in recent years have been in the 168-pound super middleweight division, including two in the 175-pound light heavyweight division.
Back around 2010, at 154 pounds, Alvarez defeated the likes of Matthew Hatton, Carlos Baldomir, Comit Cinteron, Josecito Lopez, and after losing to Floyd Mayweather, Alvarez quickly got back on track with wins over James Corkland, Miguel Cuto, Amir Cahan and others.
According to the famous CompuBox data, Alvarez averaged 39.4 punches per round and hit 17.8 punches, a 45.1 percent shooting rate, while averaging 27.2 punches and 13.6 punches per round, a 50 percent hit rate.
Going into 160 pounds, Alvarez beat Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on points, battling Gennady Golovkin twice before fending off New Yorker Daniel Jacobs.
From a stats perspective, Alvarez was more active at 160 pounds, averaging 45.8 punches per round, but his hits slipped to 16.4 punches and his shooting percentage slipped to 35.8 percent, while at 160 pounds, he averaged 25.9 punches per round and hit 10.9 punches and 42 percent.
Entering 168 pounds and 175 pounds, Alvarez averaged 38.3 punches per round and hit 13.4 punches, a 34.9% shooting rate, while the number of heavy punches and hits plummeted, with an average of 20.8 punches per round and an average of only 9.7 punches, but it is worth noting that although the number of punches and hits continued to decline at 168 and 175 pounds, the shooting percentage exceeded that of the 160-pound period, reaching 46.6%.
CompuBox founder Bob Canobbio believes that although Alvarez's number of strikes and hits has decreased, less is more, and this strategy of less is more suitable for veterans in the boxing world, just like the famous "executioner" Bernard Hopkins.
Hopkins, who dominated the 160-pound game for a long time and later achieved great success at 175 pounds, has also seen a significant decline in output over time, averaging 57.1 punches per round in the early stages of his career, but in 22 fights from 2003 to 2016, Hopkins averaged almost 20 fewer punches per round, but like Alvarez today, Hopkins still has a strong shooting percentage.
In the second half of Hopkins' career, he became a shrewd counter-attacker, and now Alvarez has that flavor too, he no longer seems to rely on strong attacks, but instead is comfortable on counter-attacks, and in short, Alvarez has strengthened his defense, which makes him look more well-rounded.
The same CompuBox data, Alvarez at 154 pounds, the opponent's average shooting rate was 25%, after entering 160 pounds, the opponent's average shooting rate rose to 25.8%, but at 168 pounds and 175 pounds, Alvarez's opponent's average shooting rate was only 20.9%, as he got older and his form declined, Alvarez did change, at least he was hit less often, which is also the most direct withdrawal to adapt to the reality.