According to data released by China's FMCG online retail monitoring agency, on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival from August 14 to September 13, the sales of mooncake products in major stores decreased by 45.17% over the same period last year; The number of moon cake sales decreased by 40.67% year-on-year, and the number of moon cake gift box sales decreased by 49.04% year-on-year.
This is the second consecutive year of decline in the domestic mooncake market.
The three data on mooncake sales in the same period on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2023 are as follows: 10.49%, 13.46%, and 8% year-on-year respectively, and it is not difficult to see that there will be a significant decline in 2024.
When you see the moon cake sales data, there is a high probability that you can understand why the liquor sector has fallen sharply in the near future, although there is no relatively authoritative industry sales data disclosure, but the news from various channels is almost the same, that is, the Mid-Autumn Festival liquor sales are weak.
In addition, the performance of the theater industry is also very poor, with a box office of 389 million in 3 days of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, and 368 million in the 1-day box office of the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2023, and the retail consumption of theaters is also sluggish.
In other words, in 2024, the overall consumption of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in the retail industry has seen a large drawdown, which generally exceeds market expectations.
It should be pointed out that there are actually big differences in the retail industry during the epidemic, for example, liquor is basically not affected, the moon cake industry is not affected online, offline sales are greatly affected, and the cinema industry has the greatest impact, which will have a significant recovery in 2023 after the epidemic, and a sharp retreat in 2024.
In general, there are big differences between the retail industry, and in the field of securities investment, some of them belong to the category of compulsory consumption, and some of them belong to the category of optional consumption.
The situation of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2024 is that there is a clear downward trend in both optional consumption and "mandatory consumption" in the retail industry. The decline in mandatory consumption data is a signal that it has fallen into the lowest trough, and if it is not reversed, there will be big trouble.
Xianxian Finance believes that this is directly related to the lack of consumer confidence.
Of course, due to the unprecedented intensity of "trade-in" this year, which has stimulated the sales of bulk products such as automobiles and home appliances, these retail industries are relatively stable.
In other words, policy stimulus cannot take care of all aspects of consumption, and industries that have not been stimulated are relatively much more sluggish.
To be honest, this is still a certain gap from the inference at the beginning of the year.
The tone set in 2024 is a year to boost domestic consumption, and fundamentally the recovery after the epidemic in 2023 will begin to fall, and it is a consensus to stimulate domestic demand. In addition, due to the post-interest rate hike cyclical factors of the Federal Reserve, it is believed that the slowdown in world economic growth will inevitably lead to sluggish external demand.
The real situation is that in the first eight months of 2024, the total import and export value of mainland trade in goods was 28.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. In other words, in 2024, foreign trade will still be the driving force of China's economy, and domestic demand will obviously lag behind.
You must know that the global macro economy is dynamic, and the Fed is on the verge of cutting interest rates in September, which means that weak external demand will appear in the next few months, and the importance of domestic demand is more prominent.
Then again, it is precisely because foreign trade exports exceeded expectations in the first eight months that we are more tolerant of the lack of pull in some retail consumption.
Consumer confidence is weak, and Leisure Finance believes that it is fundamentally related to the long-term decline of the two core assets. The long-term decline in real estate and the stock market at the same time also occurred in 2011-2013, and the end result was similar to the current one, with sluggish retail sales and a deep correction in the liquor industry.
However, there has been a "dynamic change" in the current situation, and boosting domestic consumption will become a necessary option to replace the lack of foreign trade. Especially in 2025, the "trade-in" stimulus policy will be withdrawn, and a new power engine will be needed.
It is imperative to push the price of core assets higher.
Is house prices stabilizing and rising, or is the stock market bullish?
Compared with these two options, the stock market is actually easier, as long as A-shares rise in the medium term in the months at the end of the year, consumer confidence will naturally return. It is clear that the stock market has reached a point where it has to go up. In 2025, even more will be done.