Hot Spotlight //
1. Comparing the four historical bottoms in the past 20 years, it can be found that the current A-share market has entered the value investment area in terms of overall valuation and cash dividend return. Since 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 10 times on the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a 62.5% probability of rise. Since 2008, within 5 trading days after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the largest number of rises are in medicine and biology and electronics, both of which have risen 13 times, with a rise probability of 81.25%.
2. The front page of the China Securities News said that the People's Bank of China has recently released a positive signal that there is still room for RRR cuts. Industry experts said that the People's Bank of China will continue to adhere to supportive monetary policies and more effectively support high-quality economic development. In order to better maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and guide banks to enhance the stability and sustainability of loan growth, monetary policy may increase counter-cyclical adjustment, and the new RRR cut is expected to be implemented within this year.
3. In the early morning of September 19, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market expects the Fed to announce a rate cut at this meeting, and the difference is whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Although market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut have been rising since Friday, the probability that the Fed will start this cycle of interest rate cuts at a pace of 25 basis points is still high considering the fundamentals of the United States economy.
Global Markets //
1. The three major United States stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.04% at 41606.18, the S&P 500 up 0.03% at 5634.58, recording its seventh consecutive day of gains, and the Nasdaq up 0.2% at 17628.06. Walmart fell 2.41% and Verizon Telecom fell 2.01%, leading the Dow. The Wind United States TAMAMA Technology Index rose 0.36%, Amazon rose 1.08%, and Tesla rose 0.48%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Dada Group up 21.7% and Li Auto up 12.28%.
2. The three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.5% at 18726.08 points, France's CAC 40 index up 0.51% at 7487.42 points, and United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index up 0.38% at 8309.86 points.
3. Major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed mixed, and the Korea stock market was closed today for a holiday. The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.03% at 36,203.22 points, with most of the constituent stocks falling, of which 42 stocks rose more than 1% and 65 stocks fell more than 1%. In terms of heavyweights, Tokyo Electron fell 5.24% and SoftBank Group fell 3.1%. In terms of gains, Sino-foreign pharmaceuticals rose 2.19%. Australia's S&P 200 index closed up 0.24% at 8,140.9 points. New Zealand's S&P 50 index closed down 0.26% at 12,671.95. The India SENSEX30 index closed up 0.11% at 83,079.66 points, while Bharti Aircom rose 1.63% to a new all-time high.
4. International oil prices rose across the board, with the October contract of U.S. oil rising 1.48% to $71.13 per barrel. Brent oil November contract rose 1.21% to $73.02 a barrel.
5. International precious metal futures generally closed down, COMEX gold futures fell 0.48% to $2596.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.27% to $31.05 per ounce.
6. London base metals closed down across the board, LME copper fell 0.12% to $9379 / ton, LME zinc fell 0.75% to $2924 / ton, LME nickel fell 1.04% to $16115 / ton, LME aluminum fell 0.87% to $2506.5 / ton, LME tin fell 0.15% to $31880 / ton, LME lead fell 1.35% to $2011 / ton.
7. The main contract of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed mixed, with soybean futures up 0.27% at 1007.25 cents / bushel; Corn futures rose 0.37% to 412.25 cents a bushel, while wheat futures fell 0.35% to 576.5 cents a bushel.
8. European bond yields collectively closed higher, with United Kingdom's 10-year yield up 0.9 basis points to 3.766%, France's 10-year yield up 2.7 basis points to 2.854%, Germany's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points to 2.141%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 3.495%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.4 basis points to 2.935%.
9. U.S. Treasury yields mostly closed higher, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 5.3 basis points at 3.619%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 5.4 basis points at 3.476%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 3.1 basis points at 3.449%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 3 basis points at 3.65%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 1.4 basis points at 3.962%.
10. At the end of New York, the dollar index rose 0.35% to 101.02, most of the non-US currencies fell, the euro fell 0.17% to 1.1113, the pound fell 0.43% to 1.3160, the Australian dollar rose 0.07% to 0.6756, the dollar rose 1.28% to 142.41, the dollar rose 0.28% to 0.8471, and the offshore yuan fell 140 basis points to 7.1109 against the dollar.
Macro//
1. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Italy Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Tajani in Rome. The two sides had an in-depth and frank exchange of views on issues such as the EU's anti-subsidy investigation on electric vehicles against China and cooperation with small and medium-sized enterprises.
2. During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, traffic travel will be stable, safe and orderly, and the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is expected to exceed 600 million. The cross-regional flow of people is expected to exceed 205 million per day, an increase of 28.2% over the same period in 2023. Among them, the railway passenger volume is expected to exceed 42.99 million passengers. The national civil aviation is expected to send a total of 5,111,600 passengers, and the popular routes are concentrated between the four major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, and Chengdu-Chongqing.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. Hong Kong stocks continue to climb driven by optimism. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 1.37% at 17,660.02 points, recording six consecutive positive days, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.12% to 3,536.57 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.41% to 6,176.03 points, and the market turnover was 63.078 billion Hong Kong dollars. Most of the popular technology stocks rose, with Xiaomi Group, Meituan, and Alibaba strengthening. Domestic bank stocks are strong, Bank of Communications, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, etc. have risen. Midea Group's Hong Kong stock closed up 7.85% on the first day of listing.
2. The expectation of macro fundamental improvement has been continuously strengthened, the valuation advantage has become increasingly prominent, coupled with the vigorous repurchase and increase of industrial capital, institutions generally believe that the current A-share market has obvious bottom characteristics, and the market should not be overly pessimistic in the short term.
3. Since the beginning of this year, China's capital market has continued to deepen high-level opening-up in a complex and volatile international environment. Many foreign-funded institutions said that in the face of a complex and volatile external environment, China's capital market has always adhered to deepening reform and continued to promote the opening up of institutions, markets and products in multiple dimensions. Executives from a number of foreign institutions, including banks, securities firms, and public offerings, said they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's capital market.
4. According to China Fund News, recently, the National Association of Dealers interviewed major securities companies with large investment advisory business scales, urging them to strictly isolate different business lines and standardize investment consulting business and service methods. For securities companies that fail to truthfully reflect the problems in their self-inspection, the dealers association said that it will take further self-discipline measures according to the situation.
5. CITIC Securities said that the trend of weak macro price signals continues, and the response to internal policies still needs to be observed, while external signal disturbances are not enough to affect domestic policies; Since September, the inflow of funds has decreased, the accelerated stock price fully reflects market expectations, the process of grinding the bottom is expected to be shortened, and the short-term capital game is expected to still dominate the market before the introduction of the incremental policy; In terms of configuration, it is recommended to extend the dividend and add the bottom position to the sea, and wait patiently for the inflection point signal.
6. According to the latest data from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as of the end of August, the interim dividend of 248 listed companies is expected to exceed 100 million yuan; From January to August, 1,127 listed companies newly disclosed 1,204 repurchase plans, and the repurchase participation hit a new high; Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of fines and forfeitures in the securities and futures cases investigated and handled by the China Securities Regulatory Commission has exceeded the total amount of last year...... The policy effect of the "toolbox" of the capital market is emerging. Market participants believe that the "toolbox" of the capital market will continue to be upgraded to inject new momentum into the high-quality development of the capital market.
7. In the first half of this year, 249 of the 287 A-share listed companies in the automotive industry made a profit, accounting for more than eighty percent. According to a report released by the China Association of Listed Companies (hereinafter referred to as the "China Association"), in the first half of this year, the operating income of the automotive industry increased by more than 8%, and the net profit increased by more than 20%. Among them, nearly seventy percent of the companies in the automotive industry in Shanghai have achieved positive growth in performance, and there are 13 companies with a growth rate of more than 100%.
8. The social security fund, known as the "national team", is increasing its A-shares. On Tuesday evening, SDIC Power announced on the Shanghai Stock Exchange that the company intends to issue A-shares to the Social Security Foundation to raise no more than 7 billion yuan. The participation of the Social Security Foundation in the above-mentioned issuance as a strategic investor is conducive to giving full play to the "ballast" function of long-term funds, effectively transmitting positive signals and enhancing investor confidence.
9. According to brokerage China, recently, Moutai's share price fell below 1,300 yuan, hitting a new low since November 1, 2022. There are still large differences between public funds, with some fund managers choosing to clear Kweichow Moutai or even the entire liquor sector, and some fund managers still firmly optimistic about the high-end consumer sector and choosing to increase their positions against the trend.
10. In response to the accidental fire of a Xiaomi SU7 in Nanjing, the official Xiaomi Auto issued an official document saying that it was suspected that the battery was hit internally and caused a local short circuit, with short-term smoke and open flames, and downward pressure relief.
11. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a big explosion. Rising expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut may be one of the main reasons for the strength of the Hong Kong market. CICC believes that as the Hong Kong stock market is very sensitive to changes in external liquidity and is affected by Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system, Hong Kong stocks may respond more significantly to the Fed's interest rate cut than the A-share market.
12. In the current Hong Kong stock market, the phenomenon of stock repurchase has increasingly become a significant trend. Wind data shows that on September 16 alone, 32 Hong Kong-listed companies implemented share repurchases, of which 6 repurchases exceeded 10 million Hong Kong dollars. Since the beginning of this year, the repurchase amount in the Hong Kong stock market has exceeded HK$200 billion, exceeding that of 2022 and 2023. Among them, Tencent has made several moves this year, repurchasing a total of 157.7 million shares, with a repurchase amount of nearly HK $60 billion, becoming a veritable "repurchase king" in the Hong Kong stock market.
13. The issue price of Tongguan Mine Construction, which was subscribed online on Wednesday, was 4.33 yuan per share, which was the "cheapest" new stock this year. Wind data shows that there have been 9 new stocks listed this year with an issue price of less than 10 yuan per share, but the average increase on the first day of listing was more than 168%. Zhu Haibin of Kaiyuan Securities believes that Tongguan Mine Construction's "double super" mine development service is in the leading position in the domestic industry, and at the same time, it actively expands overseas markets in cooperation with customers, which is expected to fully benefit from the growth of demand in downstream industries.
14. Huawei Mall shows that the number of reservations for Huawei's three-fold mobile phone, Huawei Mate XT, which opened for pre-order at 12:08 on September 7, has reached 6.259 million. The new product was officially released on September 10, with a starting price of 19,999 yuan, and will go on sale at 10:08 on September 20.
Finance//
1. Since the beginning of this year, a number of banks have been ordered by the China Securities Regulatory Bureau to correct the problem of fund distribution violations, among which unlicensed employment has become the "hardest hit area" of banks. Industry insiders said that as an important channel for fund distribution, banks should do a good job in product review and access before selling, pay attention to investor suitability management in sales, and retrospectively track the distribution process after sales.
Housing//
1. According to the monitoring report of the foreclosure market of the China Finger Index, from January to August, about 73,000 foreclosure residential units were sold nationwide, with a clearance rate of 29.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous year, and the transaction value of foreclosure residential buildings was 103.33 billion yuan, a decrease of about 880 million yuan over the same period of the previous year. Among the cities of each energy level, the clearance rate of foreclosure residential properties from January to August was 42.4% in 4 first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and 34.7% from January to August in 36 second-tier cities.
2. Since the beginning of this year, the land market has remained flat overall, but the "low-density residential land" launched in some core cities has set off a small upsurge in land auctions, which has been popular among developers. Behind the popularity of low-density residential land, on the one hand, is the relaxation of policies, and on the other hand, the recognition of the market. In some second- and third-tier cities, after low-density real estate products were put on the market, there were hot-selling scenarios such as "sold out in 10 minutes" and "more than 2,000 people signed up for the lottery".
3. Nanjing will issue a limited-time housing purchase subsidy at the 2024 Golden Autumn Housing Exhibition held from September 20 to 22, and an additional 1% subsidy will be given on the basis of the current housing purchase subsidy policy in each district.
4. Fengcheng City, Jiangxi Province issued the "Several Measures on Continuously Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market (Provisional)", which proposes to reasonably determine the starting price of "foreclosure houses" in accordance with the law to ensure that the prices of commercial housing are generally stable; In principle, all organs, hospitals, state-owned enterprises, and other organs, enterprises, and institutions shall not start the construction of new office buildings, dormitories for cadres and workers, turnover rooms, and talent rooms.
Industry//
1. Although this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is sandwiched between the summer vacation and the National Day holiday, the number of bookings still exceeds that of other 3-day holidays in the year. Fliggy's data shows that the total number of travel bookings for this year's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday has increased significantly compared with the New Year's Day, Qingming Festival and Dragon Boat Festival, which is the highest point of the three-day holiday this year. Among them, the per capita booking volume of domestic tourists increased by 5% compared with the Dragon Boat Festival, and the per capita booking volume of outbound tourists was basically the same as that of the Dragon Boat Festival.
Overseas//
1. JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon: The Federal Reserve will announce interest rate cuts as scheduled, but the magnitude will be "not earth-shattering".
2. According to brokerage China, at present, the market's concerns about liquidity mainly come from the reversal of arbitrage trading. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that the financial system is prone to repeat volatility, as was the case with market volatility triggered by the collapse of a popular hedge fund strategy this summer.
3. Wall Street investors predict that the United States Federal Reserve has about a 64% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut this week. Since late last week, investors in the futures market have raised expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
4. United States retail sales rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, with an expected decline of 0.2%, and the previous value was revised to 1.1% from a 1.0% increase. Core retail sales rose 0.1% month-on-month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous increase of 0.4%. United States industrial production rose 0.8% month-on-month in August, with an expected increase of 0.2%, and the previous value was revised to a decline of 0.9% from a decline of 0.6%. Manufacturing output rose 0.9% m/m versus 0.1% expected.
5. The NAHB real estate market index in United States in September was 41, expected 40, and the previous value was 39. United States business inventories rose 0.4% month-on-month in July, with an expected 0.3% increase and a 0.3% increase in the previous value.
6. Japan's tertiary industry activity index rose 1.4% month-on-month in July, with an expected increase of 0.9% and a previous decline of 1.3%.
7. Among the land prices announced by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan, the areas around ski resorts such as Hokkaido and Nagano Prefecture have increased significantly. Due to the historical weakness of the yen and the strength of the dollar, Japan real estate is increasingly undervalued from an overseas perspective. The construction of vacation homes for foreigners and long-stay hotels has sprung up.
8. Thailand's finance minister said that the first relief package boosted GDP growth by 0.35 percentage points; there is an urgent need to stimulate the economy; funds have been prepared for the second phase of the relief plan; and additional stimulus measures are planned.
9. Ernst & Young said that after declining trading volumes in 2023 and 2022, AI and lower interest rates will drive transactions of $100 million or more. After two years of decline, the total number of M&A deals is expected to increase this year, but remain well below the record 2021. EY forecasts a 21% increase in corporate deals of $100 million or more, followed by an 18% increase in 2025.
International Stock Market //
1. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 1.83%, Dada Group up 21.7%, Bit Digital up 10.98%, GDS up 10.61%, Daqo New Energy up 9.9%, VNET up 9.89%, Futu Holdings up 4.92%, Canaan Technology up 4.85%, and iQiyi up 4.06%; In terms of decline, Structure Biotech fell 3.9%. China's new energy vehicle stocks rose collectively, with NIO up 0.28%, Xpeng up 1.51%, and Li Auto up 12.28%.
2. BlackRock is preparing to launch a more than $30 billion AI investment fund with tech giant Microsoft to build data centers and energy projects to meet the growing demand for AI.
3. Apple's iPhone16 series TSMC 3nm family process is selling well, and it is rumored in the industry that Apple has determined the follow-up package of TSMC 2nm and the first batch of subsequent A16 production capacity, of which the 2nm production capacity is expected to be fully introduced as soon as next yeariPhone17Pro. TSMC has never commented on single customers and market rumors, and Apple has not commented on relevant information.
4. Intel's CEO has made Amazon's cloud service AWS a customer for the company's manufacturing operations, which could bring business to the factory it is building in the United States and help reverse the struggling chipmaker's decline. In addition, Intel said it would further separate its chip manufacturing and design operations as part of a series of new measures to address one of the worst crises in the company's 50-year history.
5. Nomura has joined the race to acquire KKR's India investment bank Avendus, conducting due diligence and the final offer will be submitted by the end of this month.
6. According to people familiar with the matter, The Carlyle Group has relaunched the IPO plan of the chemical company Nouryon. The IPO could take place as early as early 2025.
7. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy officially announced that from now until January 2 next year, Amazon requires employees to gradually return to the working state of 5 days a week before the epidemic. In addition, Andy Jassy also demanded that Amazon's organization be flattened and that the ratio of ICs to managers should reach at least 15%. However, flat management will inevitably lead to organizational consolidation, with some middle managers losing their positions, which is also considered to be Amazon's management layoffs.
8. SAFTSE partners with IBM to provide AI and autonomous agents to improve decision-making, productivity and efficiency.
Commodity//
1. During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the international gold price soared again. After hitting a new high on the evening of September 12, international gold prices continued to rise strongly in the following trading days, constantly breaking through the previous high. Wind data shows that London gold hit an intraday high of $2,589.68 per ounce on September 16, a record high. As of Sept. 17, London gold is now trading around $2,580 an ounce and is still at a high level. Liu Siyuan, chief analyst of Lingxiu Finance, said that the recent rise in gold prices has overdrawn the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the follow-up gold price has a short-term pullback demand after the Fed's interest rate cut landed, but the medium term is still bullish on gold.
2. According to data released by the World Gold Council, gold ETFs in Asia saw inflows of about US$438 million in July, the 17th consecutive month of inflows. The largest inflows from the India market were driven by the reforms included in the recently announced budget. As part of this reform, the long-term investment recognition period has been shortened and the relevant tax rate has been reduced, so that gold-backed ETFs can enjoy the same tax rate as other assets in this environment. The strong gold price, denominated in local currency, also played a role.
3. Brazil's National Commodity Supply Corporation: Brazil's soybean production will increase by 13% to 166.3 million tons in 2024-25.
4. United States API crude oil inventories increased by 1.96 million barrels in the week to September 13, with an expected decrease of 167,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.79 million barrels.
Bond//
1. A senior Korea government official said Korea has positive expectations that its government bonds will join the world's major bond index next month, but some large banks say this time is unlikely.
2. Japan will sell 500 billion yen of debt on September 24.
3. Thailand plans to issue up to 322 billion baht of government bonds between October and December, and plans to issue 1.25 trillion baht of government bonds in fiscal 2025.
Important Economic Agenda //
Review of historical articles
"Heavy! The opening of the interest rate cut race", "The dollar has collapsed", "Apple and Huawei escalate competition, and a new round of vicious war begins? "Heavy! The dollar collapsed! Gold Price Impact 2600", "Cash is King", "Mysterious Funds Shot"
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