The Mid-Autumn Festival holiday ended successfully, and the overseas market changed during the holiday. As the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts continue to change, the Dow Jones and gold once hit record highs, the RMB continued to appreciate, and Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut officially landed in the early morning of Thursday Beijing time, which has a certain impact on the domestic market this week.
List of holiday events //
1. The probability of the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut has risen sharply
The focus of financial markets this week is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced in the early morning of September 19, Beijing time. Traders are continuing to ramp up bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the latest data from CME Group's Fed Watch tool, markets are now pricing in a 59% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, up from 15% last week's low.
2. The performance of major assets during the holiday is good
During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, overseas 2 trading days, a number of major asset classes rose. Wind market shows that the Dow hit a record high as scheduled on Monday ("Major Variables Are About to Be Revealed!"). has been predicted in advance), Hong Kong stocks also fluctuated and closed up; The international gold price continues to refresh record highs, and the upward trend is strong. The U.S. dollar weakened and the renminbi continued to appreciate.
A number of major asset classes fell slightly on Tuesday, but European stocks and Hong Kong stocks still rose strongly. Overall, in the two trading days, the accumulation of global assets is still more up and down, of which crude oil rose 3.61% to rank first among all assets, and Hong Kong stocks rose 1.67% stronger than European and American stock markets.
3. Domestic policies are expected to increase
Financial data for August drew market attention. The central bank said that the monetary policy will be more flexible, moderate, precise and effective, increase regulation and control, accelerate the implementation of the financial policy measures that have been introduced, and start to introduce some incremental policy measures to further reduce the cost of corporate financing and household credit, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity.
According to the analysis of GF Securities, counter-cyclical policies are still the key to follow-up, and the potential policy space includes RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates, expansion of policy support for collection and storage, and continued adjustment of real estate financial policies in first-tier cities. CICC pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a RRR cut in the "incremental policy" option is greater than that of an interest rate cut.
4. The tourism industry rebounded during the small and long holidays
According to the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday Travel Express released by Fliggy, the total number of travel bookings for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2024 has increased significantly compared with the New Year's Day, Qingming Festival, and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, which is the highest point of the three-day holiday in the year. Among them, the per capita bookings of domestic tourists increased by 5% compared with the Dragon Boat Festival, and the per capita bookings of outbound tourists were basically the same as those of the Dragon Boat Festival. According to the data, the number of domestic car rental bookings during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday increased by 31% compared with the Dragon Boat Festival; The number of domestic hotel bookings far exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, of which high-star hotels and characteristic homestays accounted for as much as 60%.
5. Apple's new product sales are cold
Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known Apple analyst, said that the iPhone 16 series is estimated to sell about 37 million units in the first weekend, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7% from the first weekend sales of the 15 series last year. "iPhone16 Pro pre-sale is cold" and "iPhone16 series up to 1200 yuan" rushed to the hot search during the holiday. It is understood that most scalpers are mainly competing for the iPhone16pro and pro max versions, and the merchants who recycle mobile phones have repeatedly emphasized that the iPhone 16 may face "breakage".
Affected by the poor sales of new products, Apple's stock price opened low on Monday, September 16, falling sharply by 2.78%, hitting a new low in more than a month. In addition, macOS Sequoia was released, bringing a number of new features to the Mac, such as iPhone mirroring and Apple Smart. iOS 18 is expected to introduce Apple's smart features starting next month. vOS 18 is now available as a free software update for Apple TV 4K and Apple TV HD.
6. Suggestions for the latest asset allocation of institutions
Huatai Securities: A game of chips in an uncertain environment
Overseas risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of stocks and bonds has eased. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and the magnitude of the rate cut remains uncertain. The domestic bond market is expected to reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, the stock market stock game, the fundamental expectations still need to be boosted, and the policy strength is expected to be strengthened.
Tianfeng Securities: The Fed may cut interest rates gradually, and continue to be optimistic about Hong Kong stocks
Since the first quarter of 2024, the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market has continued to rise, and since late April, multiple internal and external factors have resonated, and the market has ushered in a continuous surge, and the Hong Kong stock market closed slightly higher in May. The overall performance in June was relatively strong, hovering around 18,000 points. It bottomed out in August and rose steadily for four consecutive weeks, approaching the 18,000-point mark. Compared with the global market, Chinese assets are still cost-effective. On the basis of the expectation of gradual recovery and the gradual improvement of the follow-up fundamentals, it is believed that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still attractive, and the risk-return ratio is high.
Ping An Securities: The evolution of the structure of A-share investors and the reference of international experience
The mainland is still in the process of institutional reform, and the development of institutional investors is a key link in the improvement and expansion of the capital market, which will help improve efficiency and better serve the real economy. As of the end of 2023, the total shareholding of mainland institutions accounts for about 14% of the total circulating market value of all A, corresponding to the level of US stocks in the 1960s; Among them, public funds accounted for 8%, corresponding to the level of US stocks in the 1990s, close to the level of Japan in 2018; Foreign ownership accounts for 3%, which is about the level of Taiwan stocks in the 1970s; It can be seen that there is still much to be done to promote the development of institutional investors through the reform of the governance of listed companies, the reform of the capital market and the reform of the pension system, and the long-term capital reform will also help to further enhance the internal stability of the capital market.
List of post-holiday market events and data //
1. This week, the lifting of the ban on A-share restricted shares has decreased significantly
Wind data statistics show that excluding new listings, a total of 45 companies' restricted shares have been lifted this week, with a total of 2.989 billion shares, and the market value of the ban is 26.257 billion yuan according to the latest closing price, a sharp decrease of 52.03% from the market value of 54.734 billion yuan last week, and the pressure to lift the ban has been greatly reduced.
In terms of specific stocks, the largest market value of the lifting of the ban this week is the science and technology innovation board stock Shengke Communications-U, which reached 5.152 billion yuan, accounting for 19.62% of the total scale of the weekly lifting of the ban, accounting for a relatively high proportion. Followed by 5 companies such as Waifu Holdings and Neway CNC, the market value of the lifting of the ban is also larger, all exceeding 1 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the type of shares lifted, the scale of the lifting of the restricted shares of the original shareholders in the initial offering was the largest, with a total market value of 10.663 billion yuan for 17 companies. Subsequently, the scale of the lifting of the ban on the placement of shares by private placement institutions is not small, and 8 companies have lifted the ban with a total of 9.091 billion yuan. The scale of the rest of the lifting of the ban is much smaller, most of them are less than 1 billion yuan. Attached is a list of stocks with a market value of more than 100 million yuan that will be lifted this week:
2. There are many major financial events this week
Review of historical articles
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