UEFA Champions League 3:00 Atalanta VS Arsenal Pre-match intelligence gathering analysis and match prediction

Atalanta vs Arsenal

Cup: 2024-2025 UEFA Europa League Champions Cup

UEFA Champions League 3:00 Atalanta VS Arsenal Venue: Arena Blue Weather: Thundershowers Temperature: 20°C~21°C

Atalanta (home team) has 26 players, the whole team is worth €426.1m, 19 members of the national team, the average age is 26.8 years, the league: Italy Serie A:

Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 16 goals scored in the last 10 games, 22 goals conceded, goal difference -6.

Last 10 home results: 7 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses

Personnel situation: (main central defender) Scalvini, (substitute central defender) Ben · Godfrey, (main central defender, captain of the team) Rafael· Toloy, (main central striker) Scamacca Injured and unavailable.

Atalanta's last three goals came from different players, and the team showed a multi-point situation.

Atalanta's Lookman contributed one goal and one assist in the last game, and was the biggest contributor to the team's victory, and his individual performance was eye-catching.

Atalanta under Gasperini's tactical system is mature, the team is good at defending and counter-attacking, and the players are more resolute in tactical execution.

Fighting spirit: The game is played at Atalanta's home stadium, and the support of the home fans and the team's familiarity with the home stadium could give Atalanta some advantages, and the team will be looking to make a difference.

Team update: Monaco are unbeaten in the new season, most recently beating AJ Auxerre 3-0. They are currently ranked 3rd in Ligue 1.

Monaco have won seven of their last nine matches against Spain and have a lot of experience against Spain.

Monaco have an excellent history in the Champions League, reaching one final and three semi-finals despite having only played nine times.

Monaco have conceded 1 goal in the last 5 games, an average of less than 1 goal per game, and the defensive performance is excellent.

Atalanta vs Arsenal

Arsenal (Away) has 22 players, the whole team is worth €1170m, 19 members of the national team, the average age is 26.6 years, the league: English Premier League:

Record in the last 6 games: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 18 goals scored in the last 10 games, 7 goals conceded, and 11 goal difference.

Last 10 away results: 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

Personnel situation: (new central defender) Calafiori, (substitute left-back) Zinchenko, (main left-back) Tierney, (substitute right-back) Tomiyasu Takehiro, (new central midfielder) Mikel · Merino, (main central midfielder, captain of the team) Martin · Odegaard are injured and cannot play.

Arsenal has a strong lineup, with Thomas, Rice and other powerful players in the midfield, and on the offensive side, players such as Jesus, Havertz, and Martinelli have outstanding individual abilities, rich and diverse offensive means, and have strong scoring ability.

Gabriel scored the only goal of the game last time out to help Arsenal to victory.

Arsenal will welcome Declan Rice back for this game, having been given a valuable rest last week, while Bukayo Saka picked up an injury in the game but returned to training on Wednesday and has little problem playing. Italy defender Calafioli has also returned from injury and will be in the squad for this game.

The absence of Odegaard, the core of the team's midfield, is due to injury, which will have a certain impact on the team's attacking organization. Odegaard's playmaking and organisational ability in midfield is important to Arsenal's attacking system, and his absence could lead to a decline in the team's fluidity in attack.

Team spirit: Arsenal are now gaining momentum, and they will be hoping to continue their winning streak even if they are playing away from home.

Team update: Arsenal beat Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 away in their last game, with three wins and one draw at the start of the league season.

Arsenal have won all of their last five away matches and are very competitive on the road.

As a traditional powerhouse in the Premier League, Arsenal has a wealth of experience in European competition. The players are familiar with the pace and intensity of Champions League matches, and will be more comfortable with all kinds of scenes.

Arsenal have conceded just one goal in their last five games in total, and the team has been solid defensively.

Arsenal have just experienced a north London derby against Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, a game in which the players have spent a lot of energy. After this Champions League game, the team will face Manchester City at the weekend, and the tight schedule may affect the players' fitness to a certain extent.

Recent all-time meetings between the two teams: The two sides have not faced each other in recent years, and this is an encounter for both teams.

In terms of the same handicap: Initial handicap: The home team concedes half a half, and the home team has played the same handicap trend in the past 6 games as this game: win, win, lose, win, lose, lose. The last 6 games of the away team have played the same handicap trend as this game: win, win, win, lose, win, lose.

Atalanta vs Arsenal

Pre-Match Briefing:

Atalanta are the current Europa League winners and they will be looking to continue their excellent run in Europe. In the first round of the Champions League group stage, Atalanta will face Premier League powerhouse Arsenal in Bergamo.

Thursday's game will be the first meeting between the two teams on European stage and it will be an important game for both sides. However, for Atalanta, beating a top-tier European team like Arsenal means even more.

Atalanta have been in poor form of late, losing two of their first four Serie A games and claiming just two wins. Arsenal, on the other hand, are second in the Premier League and unbeaten, picking up 10 points from their first four games.

Arsenal have a challenging schedule this week. After a 1-0 win over London derby rivals Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal travel to Bergamo before taking on Premier League leaders Manchester City this weekend. This week could play a crucial role in Arsenal's season, with manager Mikel Mikel · Arteta hoping the team can continue their excellent form Italy.

Arsenal have excelled defensively this season, conceding just one goal. Atalanta, on the other hand, have struggled defensively and have conceded eight goals in Serie A, six of which have come in the last two matches. However, Atalanta were also impressive in attack, scoring eight goals and winning 3-2 against Fiorentina in their last Serie A fixture. Atalanta have scored over 2.5 goals in all four Serie A games combined.

Arsenal's attacking side is led by Kai · Kai Kai, who has scored two goals in the Premier League, while Bukayo · Bukayo Saka have four assists. However, Bukayo Saka is currently injured and could miss the game. In addition, Arsenal's Martin· Odegaard, Mikel· Merino and Tomiyasu will also miss out through injury. However, Declan · Rice could return, having been absent from the game against Tottenham through suspension.

For Atalanta, Mateo · Retegui was their top scorer with four goals in Serie A, while Marco · Bresciani contributed two. Can Atalanta beat Arsenal at home? Looking at the numbers, Arsenal are in significantly better form and they are likely to emerge victorious away from home in the first round of the Champions League.

Atalanta coach Gasperini will be unavailable for several key players, including Ben · Godfrey (back injury), Rafael · Toloi (muscle injury), George · Scalvini (cruciate ligament tear) and Gianluca · Scamacca (cruciate ligament tear). Atalanta are expected to go through a 3-4-2-1 formation and the starting line-up is likely to include: Marco· Carnesecchi, Marten· Drouen, Isak· Sheehan, Siad· Kolasinac, Raul· Bellanova, Matteo· Ruggieri, Mario· Pasalic, Ederson, Ademola· Lukeman, Charles · De Ketelaere and Mateo · Retegui.

Arsenal boss Mikel Mikel · Arteta are also facing some injury concerns. Oleksandr· Zinchenko (calf injury), Ricardo · Calafiori (calf problems), Kieran · Tierney (hamstring injury), Martin · Odegaard (sprained ankle), Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee injury) and Mikel · Merino (shoulder injury) will all miss the game. Arsenal are expected to opt for a 4-3-3 formation and the starting line-up is likely to include: David ·Raya, Ben · White, Willian· Saliba, Gabriel, Jurien· Timber, Thomas· Partey, Declan · Rice, Leandro· Trossard, Bukayo· Saka, Gabriel· Martinelli and Kai· Havertz.

Atalanta vs Arsenal

1. Strength Analysis:

• Atalanta last 10 games: Goals scored 16, goals conceded 22, goal difference -6.
• Arsenal last 10 games: 18 goals scored, 7 goals conceded, goal difference 11.
• Arsenal have a 1.7 goal advantage in the absolute theoretical world.

2. State Analysis:

• Atalanta last 6 games:2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, points 6.
• Arsenal last 6 games: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 16 points.
• Points difference: 10 points, indicating that Arsenal are clearly in better form than Atalanta. Considering the importance of Atalanta's injured players, their main defender Scalvini, backup defender Godfrey, captain Toloy and center Scamacca are all absent, and the substitutes in these positions are not strong enough to fill the gap, which will greatly affect Atalanta's defense and attack. As for Arsenal, despite Odegaard's absence due to injury, important players such as Rice and Bukayo Saka are available, and the overall form remains at a high level.

3. Analysis of Fighting Spirit:

• Atalanta: Despite having home advantage, due to injury issues and the team's poor recent form, Atalanta may be more inclined to play on the defensive end and avoid conceding too many goals and have a middling mentality.
• Arsenal: As a Premier League powerhouse with excellent performances in the league and Champions League, Arsenal have a strong desire to fight, especially in the Champions League, where they have a lot of experience and want to win more European honours.

4. Asian Indices & Handicap Analysis:

• The initial handicap is a handicap for the home team, with the water level being 0.84 for the home team and 1.00 for the away team.
• The current live handicap is the home team handicap hemisphere, the water level is 1.06 for the home team and 0.87 for the away team.
• From 1 September to 10 September, the water levels for both the home and away teams were relatively stable. The water level in Atalanta has remained roughly between 1.04-1.06 and Arsenal in the range of 0.82-0.85, and there has been basically no major adjustment in the institution's handicap setting.
• This time frame reflects the market's initial confidence in Arsenal's victory, and while Atalanta have home advantage, it is not enough to turn market expectations.
• Since September 15, the water level of the home team Atalanta has fluctuated and risen to a maximum of 1.14, which means that the market expects Atalanta to win the game at home is getting lower and lower.
• Arsenal's water level was relatively low during this period, and although there were small fluctuations, it remained generally between 0.78-0.83, indicating that the market's confidence in Arsenal's ability to win has increased, and institutions have adjusted the water level to cope with the flow of funds.
• By game day, water levels in Atlanta had retreated slightly from their previous highs and were stable between 1.06-1.07, but still at high levels, indicating limited institutional confidence in Atlanta.
• Arsenal's water level fluctuated slightly, but it remained around 0.83, and the market's expectations for Arsenal remained largely unchanged, and the odds of winning were higher.

5. Institutional Bottom Line Forecasting Method:

• 胜：3.60 / 4.40 ≈ 0.818
• Draw: 3.75 / 3.62 ≈ 1.036
• Negative: 1.80 / 1.60 = 1.125
• The values are all lower than 1.2, indicating that all possibilities will occur, and one cannot be directly ruled out.

6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend

• Arsenal has a high probability of winning, and the away win level fluctuated after the initial handicap, but eventually fell back to 1.83, and the return rate gradually stabilized. The index shows that institutions have a strong confidence in Arsenal's victory, and more money in the market is flowing to away winning options.
• The probability of Atlanta winning is low, the home win level is rising, and institutions attract buyers by raising the home win level, but the index shows that the risk of home win is greater, and institutions do not think that the home win will be played.
• The probability of a draw is more subordinate, the draw water level fluctuates less, and the index is at a high level, indicating that the probability of a draw outcome is medium, and the player's confidence in the draw is more limited.

Win transaction data

7. Transaction data analysis

• The home win price gradually increased from 4.0 to 4.6, indicating that the market's confidence in Atlanta's victory has weakened. From the perspective of trading volume, although the price of 4.5 is the most traded, the overall trading volume is relatively low, indicating that the market is not very optimistic about the main win. Buying for the main win was more dispersed, with prices higher (around 4.5) and buyers cautious about Atlanta's victory.
• The price fluctuation of the away win is relatively small, moving between 1.85 and 2.02. This less volatile scenario indicates that the market's confidence in Arsenal's victory is relatively stable. The volume is very high, especially at the price of 1.89, showing a lot of money bullish on the Arsenal victory. Lots of buying around 1.89 can be seen in the volume chart, with very strong market support for Arsenal. Buying between 1.84 and 1.88 for an away win is very strong, showing that a large number of players are willing to buy an Arsenal win at a price close to 2.0, which shows that the market has a high level of confidence in an away win. Sellers with an away win of 1.92 or more are more positive, indicating that institutions believe that Arsenal is more likely to win, so they are willing to accept sell orders at high prices.
• The price volatility of the draw is relatively smooth, basically staying between 3.8 and 4.3. The trading volume is relatively concentrated at the price level of 3.9, but the overall trading volume is still low relative to the guest wins, indicating that the market is less concerned about the draw.

Final lottery prediction suggestion: home +1 win 1 to 1

Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.