Atletico Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Cup: 2024-2025 UEFA Europa League Champions Cup
UEFA Champions League 3:00 Atletico Madrid VS RB Leipzig Venue: Civitas Metropolitano Stadium Weather: Cloudy Temperature: 20°C~21°C
Atletico Madrid (home team) has 24 players, the whole team is worth €259.5m, 16 members of the national team, the average age is 28 years old, and the league belongs to: Spain First Division:
Record in the last 6 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 23 goals scored in the last 10 games, 5 goals conceded, and 18 goal difference.
Last 10 home results: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
Personnel situation: (substitute striker) Galces Moreno is injured and cannot play.
Atletico Madrid's last three goals came from different players, and the team showed a multi-point flowering situation.
Atletico Madrid scored a goal in the last game, which was also the first goal of his Atletico Madrid career, and his personal form has recovered.
In the off-season, the management of Atletico Madrid showed extraordinary courage, with the addition of new signings such as Alvarez, Lenormand, Soros and Gallagher to inject new vitality into the team.
Team spirit: Atletico Madrid are in good form right now, and the home team will definitely be hoping to continue their winning streak and have plenty of fighting spirit.
Team update: Atletico Madrid beat Valencia 3-0 at home in their last game, and the team started the league unbeaten with three wins and two draws.
Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last three home matches, and the team's performance at home is worthy of recognition.
Atletico Madrid have conceded just two goals in their last five games and have been solid defensively.
Atletico Madrid is a traditional powerhouse in La Liga, known for its tenacious defense and efficient attacking ability.
Atletico Madrid vs RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig (away) has 24 players, the whole team is worth €513.9m, 17 members of the national team, the average age is 25 years old, the league belongs to: Germany First League:
Record in the last 6 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 17 goals scored in the last 10 games, 11 goals conceded, and 6 goal difference.
Last 10 away results: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss
Personnel situation: (main central midfielder) Schrager, (substitute central midfielder) Voozan · Odraogo injured and unable to play.
In the off-season, RB Leipzig made targeted reinforcements, and the addition of new signings such as Antonio · Nousa, Van der Wroth and Athan · Oderaugo injected new vitality and hope into the team.
Team spirit: RB Leipzig have had a number of exciting performances in the Champions League in recent years, and the team will certainly be looking to get the Champions League off to a good start.
Team update: RB Leipzig drew 0-0 at home to Union Berlin last time out and are on a six-game unbeaten streak in all competitions.
RB Leipzig are unbeaten in their last nine away matches, winning six of those games, and are highly competitive on the road.
RB Leipzig have scored a total of 11 goals in their last five games, and the team's attacking performance has been impressive.
RB Leipzig are known for their young, dynamic players and fast-changing style of play. As a strong team in Germany football, RB Leipzig has repeatedly achieved great results in the Bundesliga and European competitions in recent years, showing excellent ability.
Recent meetings between the two teams: the two sides have met once before, in the quarter-finals of the 2019/2020 Champions League, RB Leipzig beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 at home to advance to the semi-finals, and that season the Champions League quarter-finals were eliminated in a single game due to special circumstances.
In terms of the same handicap: Initial handicap: The home team has handicap half a goal/one goal, and the home team has played the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win and lose win and lose. The last 6 games of the away team have opened the same handicap trend as this game: win, lose, win, lose, win, lose.
Atletico Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Pre-Match Briefing:
On Thursday evening, Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig will conclude the first round of the 2024-25 Champions League group stage in the Spain capital.
Both teams are unbeaten this season and have made strong starts in their respective domestic leagues, but Thursday's clash will be a tough test for them.
Atletico came in a comfortable 3-0 win over Valencia on Sunday, allowing just one shot on target. Former Chelsea midfielder Conor · Gallagher opened his account for his new club, with Antoine · Griezmann and Julian · Álvarez scoring in the second half.
Simeone's side have won three and drawn two in La Liga, conceding just two goals. Atletico have won their last five home Champions League matches, scoring over 1.5 goals in each of those games, so they are confident of another positive result.
RB Leipzig drew 0-0 with Union Berlin last weekend, despite having 68 per cent possession at home and completing 15 shots on goal. Even so, Leipzig are unbeaten in the 2024-25 season, with three wins and one draw in all competitions.
Last month, Leipzig ended Bayer Leverkusen's long unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, beating the Germany champions 3-2. However, Leipzig have been shaky defensively in their most recent Champions League fixtures, failing to keep a clean sheet in eight consecutive matches.
The only meeting between the two teams was in the 2019/20 season, when the Champions League was played over a single knockout leg due to the pandemic. RB Leipzig won 2-1 against Atletico Madrid in that fixture, with Taylor · Adams, now playing for Bournemouth, scoring the winner in the 88th minute.
Atletico midfielder Pablo · Barrios missed the game against Valencia due to injury and will not play in this game, while Thomas · Lemar is also out injured.
Atletico are expected to go for a 3-5-2 formation, with the starting line-up including: Jan· Oblak, Robin· Lenormand, Jose· Gimenez, Cesar· Cesar Cesar, Cesar· Azpilicueta, Marcos· Llorente, Rodrygo De Paul, Koke, Samuel· Dias· Lino, Rodrygo· Riquelme, Antoine· Griezmann and Julian· Alvarez.
Leipzig coach Marco · Rose is facing injury problems with a number of players. Xavier · Schrager (Cruciate ligament tear) and Athan · Ouedraogo (Knee injury) will not be able to play.
Leipzig are expected to play in a 3-4-2-1 formation and are expected to start from: Peter· Guraci, Lutscher· Hertruda, Willy· Orban, Castello· Lukeba, Benjamin· Henrichs, David ·Raum, Artur· Fermelen, Kevin · Kanpur, Benjamin· Sesko, Xavi· Simmons and Icoma· Lois· Opponda.
It is expected to be a close matchup, with the two unbeaten teams this season battling it out for a good start to the Champions League on Thursday.
Atletico Madrid vs RB Leipzig
1. Strength analysis
- Atletico Madrid: 23 goals scored, 5 goals conceded, goal difference 18
- RB Leipzig: 17 goals scored, 11 goals conceded, goal difference 6
- Atletico Madrid have an advantage of 1.2 goals in the absolute theoretical world.
2. State analysis
- The last 6 games of both teams have 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 14 points from Atletico Madrid and 14 points from RB Leipzig. The points difference is 0 points, indicating that the recent form of the two sides is basically on the same level.
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Atletico Madrid have been solid at home, with seven wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 10 home games, and a solid defense, conceding just two goals in five games.
RB Leipzig are also very competitive on the road, with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 away games.
- Combined with the injury situation: Atletico Madrid's substitute striker Galcez Moreno is absent and has little impact on the team. RB Leipzig's main central midfielder Schrager and substitute central midfielder Voozan · Odraogo are both out due to injury, and the depth of the midfield is greatly affected.
3. Analysis of fighting spirit
- Atletico Madrid: Playing at home, the team is full of fighting spirit, and the goal is to continue the winning run, especially in the Champions League.
- RB Leipzig: They have performed well in the Champions League in recent years, and this game will also hope to get off to a good start to the new season in the Champions League.
- Both sides have the will to fight, so it is necessary to further judge in this regard in combination with their state and strength.
4. Asian Indices
- The initial handicap is a half/one goal for the home team, and the water level is 0.84 for the home team and 1.00 for the away team.
- The current live handicap is a half/goal for the home team, with the water level at 0.97 for the home team and 0.95 for the away team.
- The earliest initial handicap was opened on August 31, when the handicap was half-ball/one-goal and the water level was 0.84 for the home team Atletico Madrid and 1.00 for the away team RB Leipzig. Since then, the handicap and water level have experienced some fluctuations, but the overall change has not been significant, and the handicap has always remained at the hemisphere/one goal without a large handicap change. However, sometime on September 18, there was a noticeable downward adjustment in the home team's water level, reaching a low of 0.76, which was the strongest moment of confidence in Atletico Madrid. Subsequently, the water level of the home team gradually recovered, and by the instant market on September 19, the water level fluctuated between 0.95-0.97, showing that the funds in the market flowed to the home team, and the institution adjusted the water level of the home team accordingly.
- From the early days of the handicap to the present, the home team has maintained the handicap half/one goal handicap, and the institution has considerable confidence in the home team's victory. Over time, the home team's win rate is expected to be high, despite multiple fluctuations.
5. Institutional Bottom Line
- Win: 1.70 / 1.61 = 1.056
- Flat: 3.90 / 3.70 = 1.054
- Negative: 4.00 / 4.20 = 0.952
- All values are below 1.2, indicating that there are no exclusions and the values are relatively close.
6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend
- Home wins from the initial handicap to the instant handicap, the home win level and winning rate have risen steadily, and the index is also within a reasonable range, indicating that institutions are still optimistic about Atletico Madrid's home win, although some institutions have slightly raised the water level, but this is likely to be a strategy to balance the market. The probability of Atletico Madrid winning remains high.
- The draw level has increased in the instant market, and the draw index of some institutions is also more conservative, indicating that the probability of a draw has increased, especially since some institutions have raised the draw level, possibly to attract funds to the draw.
- Although RB Leipzig's win is generally not optimistic, the fluctuation range of the away win water level is large, and some institutions have raised the away win water level, which shows that the chance of RB Leipzig upset still exists, but the index is slightly higher than the home win, indicating that the risk of away win is greater.
Home win transaction data
7. Transaction data analysis
- The price of the home win is slowly declining from around 1.9 to 1.81, which shows that the market's confidence in Atletico Madrid's victory is growing. A large amount of money went into the buy order in the direction of the home win, indicating the increasing support for the home team. The main win turnover accounts for about 74% of the total turnover, which can be seen that the home win has become the mainstream direction of market funds. Looking at buy and sell orders, the number of buy orders for home wins in the current market significantly exceeds sell orders, which means that even if sellers are willing to accept buying, there are still more buyers who are optimistic about Atletico Madrid's victory. Home wins are clearly dominated by buyers, with turnover significantly higher than away wins and draws, indicating that most players in the market are more optimistic about Atletico Madrid's performance at home.
- The price of the away win is higher, and the price basically remains around 5.0. The market's confidence in RB Leipzig's away win is weak. With about 16% of the total turnover, it is clear that the market is less optimistic about Leipzig. Despite the low turnover, the price of 5.00 showed an attractive rate of return, but there was no huge influx of money into the wins. Judging from the charts and pending orders, sellers have placed a large number of pending orders at the high level of 5.0, and buyers have shown little interest in this, indicating that the market generally does not expect Leipzig to win in an upset. The large number of sell orders indicates that the seller is not optimistic that RB Leipzig can win, and the buyer's limited transaction volume at the high price also indicates that the chances of winning the house are relatively slim.
- The draw level remained stable between 4.0-4.2, and while the turnover of the draw was relatively small compared to the turnover of home and away wins, there were some inflows. Draws accounted for about 9.7% of the total turnover, and the market's expectations for draws were relatively low. Sellers of a tie are more active, indicating that some sellers are willing to buy, probably because they believe that a tie is not highly likely. As a result, a large number of sell orders are placed in the range of 4.0-4.1. The pending orders for the draw are relatively scattered, and there are no large buy and sell orders, indicating that the market is more cautious about the draw.
Final Lottery Prediction Suggestion: Home Win Two to One (3-4 Goals)
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.