A number of experts pointed out that in the future, the mainland's electricity demand will maintain steady growth, and carbon peaking will be a "incremental peaking" process with a huge increase in electricity consumption. In this process, it is very important to scientifically and rationally design the construction path of the new power system.
"At present, the mainland's power industry is actively complying with the requirements of the development of new quality productivity, actively building a new power system, implementing the 'dual carbon' goal, promoting the construction of a unified national power market and accelerating innovation-driven development. How to deal with the dialectical relationship between planning and market, competition and cooperation, power grid and power supply, central and local, industry and enterprise, development and security is a major issue facing the industry. At the 2024 China Electric Power Planning and Development Forum held recently, You Min, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Electric Power Development Promotion Association, said.
A number of experts at the meeting pointed out that in the future, the mainland's electricity demand will maintain steady growth, and carbon peaking will be a "incremental peaking" process with a huge increase in electricity consumption. In this process, it is very important to scientifically and rationally design the construction path of the new power system.
Electricity demand continues to grow rapidly
Since the "dual carbon" goal was proposed, the construction of the mainland's new power system has been accelerated, and the power production structure has undergone profound changes. According to data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of July 2024, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 3.1 billion kilowatts, of which about 740 million kilowatts were solar power and 470 million kilowatts were wind power, accounting for 38.7%.
At the same time, the mainland's electricity demand has maintained rapid growth. According to the data, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the mainland was 7.5 trillion kWh in 2020, and the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2023 has reached 9.2 trillion kWh, with an average annual growth rate of 530 billion kWh in the first three years of the "14th Five-Year Plan", with an average growth rate of about 7.0%. In the first half of 2024, the mainland's electricity consumption will be 4.7 trillion kWh, a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1%.
"The digital economy represented by 5G and artificial intelligence will become a new growth pole for mainland electricity." Liu Qiang, president of the Electric Power Development Research Institute of the Electric Power Planning and Design Institute, said that in the next 5-10 years, the mainland's annual new electricity consumption will remain at 500 billion to 600 billion kilowatt hours, which is equivalent to Germany's current one-year electricity consumption level. Different from the "natural peaking" of developed countries, the peak of carbon dioxide in the mainland will be an "incremental peaking" process with a huge increase in electricity consumption.
Liu Qiang pointed out that the new industrialization path determines that the proportion of electricity consumption in the mainland's secondary industry will remain at about 50% in the long term. "With the gradual transformation of the manufacturing industry from high energy consumption and low added value to low energy consumption and high added value, the unit consumption of electricity in the secondary industry is declining as a whole, but it will still be significantly higher than the unit consumption of electricity in the whole society, and 30% of the added value of the secondary industry will provide about 50% of the electricity demand. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry, represented by the high-tech industry, is an important engine for the rigid growth of electricity consumption in the secondary industry. ”
In addition, with the gradual rise of new technologies such as information and communication, the Internet, and big data, the modern service industry and emerging service industry represented by the digital economy have developed rapidly. It is estimated that by 2030, the electricity consumption of data centers, new energy vehicle charging, 5G base stations and other industries will exceed 50% of the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry. It is estimated that by 2030, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry will account for more than 22% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and it will increase to more than 27% by 2040.
Safe and reliable operation is challenging
In the context of increasing electricity demand, the mainland is facing multiple pressures to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
Liu Qiang said: "According to preliminary estimates, in the 15th Five-Year Plan and the medium and long term, there are different degrees of power gaps in all regions of the country, and it is necessary to coordinate measures such as reliable substitution of new energy, new energy storage on the grid side, supporting power supply, and new external power to ensure power supply." ”
"In order to achieve the goal of 25% of non-fossil energy in 2030, it is estimated that by 2030, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the mainland will reach 2.2 billion to 2.4 billion kilowatts, that is, at least 170 million to 190 million kilowatts of new wind and solar power will be added annually from 2024 to 2030; Further considering the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% in 2030 compared with 2005, by 2030, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power in mainland China needs to reach 2.7 billion to 3.1 billion kilowatts, that is, the average annual installed wind and solar capacity needs to be increased by 230 million to 300 million kilowatts from 2024 to 2030. Zhang Yiguo, vice president of the General Institute of Hydropower and Water Conservancy Planning and Design, pointed out that the rapid growth of new energy installations will continue to push up the pressure of consumption, not only large-scale development, but also high-level consumption, but also to ensure the safe and reliable supply of energy, renewable energy "stable, reliable" facing multiple challenges.
Wang Le, deputy director of the Development Planning Department of the State Grid Corporation of China, pointed out: "At present, the development of conventional power sources lags behind the growth of loads, and the peak supply capacity of new energy power generation is insufficient. At the same time, the contradiction between the homogenization and consumption of new energy power generation is prominent. Under the characteristics of the power system with a high proportion of new energy and a high proportion of power electronic equipment, the safe operation is facing challenges. ”
"During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the development of energy in mainland China will undergo major changes, and all kinds of power sources will face new functional positioning, market environment and development requirements. The development of the energy industry will face challenges such as increased competition, lower project yields in the spot market, and power consumption and system stability issues. Zeng Wu, deputy director of the strategic planning and development department of the State Power Investment Group, said.
Overall planning needs to be strengthened
For the future power system development plan and the construction path of the new power system, a number of experts at the meeting gave suggestions.
"In the context of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and the construction of a new power system, the coupling between the power system and the economy and society, other related industries and other fields of energy has been further increased. From the perspective of national economy and market economy, a new optimal planning model of the whole industry chain and the whole link under the constraints of multiple objectives should be gradually established. Liu Qiang pointed out that it is necessary to refine the research and analysis of electricity demand in key industries, strengthen the coordinated planning of the four ends of the source, grid, load and storage, establish a multi-phase optimal planning model for cross-provincial and cross-regional channels, and strengthen the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and power planning, enrich and expand the main body of power balance, and incorporate new models and new formats such as reliable substitution of new energy, vehicle-network interaction, virtual power plants, and distributed microgrids into the power planning and research system as soon as possible, and gradually build a diversified power supply guarantee system and new energy consumption system.
Wang Le said: "The key to coordinating development and security, reliable power supply and clean and low-carbon transformation is to build and operate a new power system. First, we must strengthen planning and guidance and actively serve the green transformation of energy. Second, we must make concerted efforts on both sides of supply and demand to consolidate the foundation for energy and power supply. Third, we must innovate the development model of the power grid and improve the level of safe operation of the system. Fourth, we must adhere to inheritance and innovation to build a power engine for energy transition. Fifth, we must strengthen the construction of mechanisms to provide a strong guarantee for the development of energy transition. ”
Zeng Wu suggested: "It is necessary to stabilize the price of new energy electricity and ensure the reasonable income of the project; At the planning level, we should strengthen the complementarity of multiple power sources to achieve the coordinated development of source and network; Accelerate the promotion and implementation of a high-proportion clean energy supply model integrating source, grid, load and storage; At the same time, strengthen the application of new consumption technologies and promote the innovation of new power system dispatching models. ”