Spain vs Villarreal
League: 2024-2025 Spain First Division (20 teams in total)
La Liga 1:00 Spain VS Villarreal Venue: RCDE Stadium Weather: occasional clouds Temperature: 25°C~26°C
Spain (home team) has 26 players, the whole team is worth €68.3m, 2 members of the national team, average age 26 years:
Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 8 goals scored in the last 10 games, 11 goals conceded, goal difference -3.
League Standing: 6 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 7 points, ranked 14th (midstream)
Home results: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss
Personnel situation: No main players have been injured or suspended, and the lineup is complete.
Team spirit: The Spain have been playing well at home recently, and the team will definitely be hoping to win at home in this game.
Team update: Spain have won their last two home games and their home performances are commendable.
The Spain have scored in three consecutive games and the team has improved a lot in attack.
Spain ended their winning streak with a 4-1 defeat away to Real Madrid last time out.
Spain have conceded a total of eight goals in their last five games, and the team has not been solid enough defensively.
Spain vs Villarreal
Villarreal (Away) has 24 players, the team is worth €196.2m, 10 members of the national team, and the average age is 26.8 years:
Record in the last 6 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 15 goals scored in the last 10 games, 22 goals conceded, goal difference -7.
League Ranking: 6 matches, 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 11 points, 6th place (middle and upper reach)
Away results: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses
Personnel situation: No main players have been injured or suspended, and the lineup is complete.
Andreas Pereira scored a goal in the last game to help the team avoid an embarrassing clean sheet.
Fighting spirit: Villarreal have the psychological advantage and will want to make a difference even if they play away from home.
Team update: Villarreal are unbeaten in their last six away matches and are highly competitive on the road.
Villarreal have scored a total of 10 goals in their last five games and the team's performance in attack is commendable.
Villarreal ended their unbeaten run with a 5-1 defeat at home to Barcelona in their last game.
Villarreal have conceded a total of 11 goals in their last five games, and the team has not been solid enough defensively.
Recent all-time meetings between the two teams: In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, Villarreal have the upper hand with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
In terms of the same handicap: Initial handicap: the home team has a draw/hemisphere, the home team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: loss win or loss win or lose, and the away team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win win lose win lose.
Spain vs Villarreal
Pre-Match Briefing:
Spain will host Villarreal in one of the key battles of La Liga in 2024-25.
Ahead of this round, Spain are 13th with seven points, just three points above the relegation zone. Villarreal, on the other hand, are sixth with 11 points, just one point off the top four. The Spain lost 4-1 to Real Madrid in their last fixture, ending their three-game unbeaten run in the league.
That unbeaten run includes two straight wins at home. Now, the Spain will be hoping to get back on winning ways, but Villarreal will be a tough opponent. The visitors have won three games so far this season, drawn one and lost just one. That defeat, however, came in the previous round, where they suffered a 5-1 defeat to Barcelona.
Villarreal will be hoping to erase the shadow of that defeat quickly and rely on their away form to turn things around. They have won two of their three away league games this season and drawn one and will be hoping to continue that good run. Interestingly, Villarreal have scored in each of their six La Liga games this season.
Spain are likely to go for a 3-5-2 formation with a predicted starting line-up: Joan Garcia· Omar· El· Hillary, Marash· Kumbra, Leandro· Cabrera, Alvaro · Tejero, Hofre· Carreras, Alex· Kral, Alvaro · Aguado, Carlos · Romero, Javier· Puado and Alejo · Belis.
Villarreal are likely to go for a 4-4-2 formation with a predicted starting lineup: Diego· Kounde, Kiko, Raul· Albiol, Eric · Bay, Sergi· Cardona, Ilias· Ahommachi, Daniel· Parejo, Santi· Comesania, Alejandro· Baena, Tieno· Bari and Ayose· Pérez.
Spain vs Villarreal
1. Strength Analysis:
- Spain: Last 10 games: 8 goals scored, 11 goals conceded, goal difference -3.
- Villarreal: Last 10 games: 15 goals scored, 22 goals conceded, goal difference -7.
- The home team, Spain, has a 0.4 goal advantage in the absolute theoretical world.
2. State Analysis:
- Spain: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, score = 7 points.
- Villarreal: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, score = 11 points.
- The difference in form points is 4 points, indicating that Villarreal have a clear advantage in recent form.
3. Battle Spirit Analysis:
- Spain are currently 14th in the table, and although there is no relegation pressure for the time being, the team has a poor record, and the team needs to recover and boost morale through wins, so there is plenty of fighting spirit.
- Villarreal are sixth in the table and still have hopes of qualifying for Europe, so they are also strong.
- On the whole, both sides are full of fighting spirit.
4. Asia Index Analysis:
- In the initial handicap, the home team received a draw/half, and the water level was 0.80 for the home team and 1.08 for the away team.
- The current live handicap is a draw/half for the home team, with the water level being 1.00 for the main team and 0.90 for the away team.
- The water level of Spain has fluctuated, which indicates that the market's confidence in Spain has been adjusting, especially during the period from September 17 to September 18, when Spain once received more support. However, with the gradual adjustment of the market and water level, the market's support for them has weakened in the future.
- Villarreal's water levels are more stable, and even during Spain's water level fluctuations, the relatively small changes in Villarreal's water levels suggest that the market's confidence in them has not weakened significantly. This also means that Villarreal are still considered to be competitive even away from home.
5. Institutional Bottom Line:
- 胜：3.00 / 3.10 ≈ 0.968
- Draw: 3.50 / 3.25 ≈ 1.077
- 负：2.30 / 2.01 ≈ 1.144
- The values are all below 1.2, so the three possibilities cannot be directly ruled out, and the home win value is the lowest, which is more advantageous.
6. Handicap Fixing:
- In La Liga, Villarreal belongs to the upper middle team, while Spain belongs to the middle team. According to the theoretical handicap calculation, the middle and upper teams should concede 0.5 goals away from the middle team. The game opened with a handicap of 0.25 goals for the home team, which was slightly lower than the theoretical handicap, and the game opened low.
7. Analysis of the trend of wins, draws and losses
- In the initial stage, the institution is significantly optimistic about Villarreal's away win, and the home win has a high water level and is inducing. By setting a high home win mark and a low index, the institution hopes to attract more people to choose the home win.
- In the instant market, the home win level has decreased, and the market's support for the home win has increased, but the index and water level trend show that institutions still have reservations about away wins, and at the same time, appropriately raise the away win water level to attract players. The likelihood of a draw is relatively stable and has not changed significantly.
Win transaction data
8. Transaction data analysis
- The highest trading price of the main win transaction is 3.45, and the current trading price is 3.40. The trading volume of the main win showed a gradual upward trend from the beginning, but the trading volume slowed down over time. Although some funds continued to enter, the overall trading volume was relatively low relative to away wins and draws. From the perspective of buying and selling orders, most of the buyer's pending orders are between 3.30 and 3.40, indicating that the market does not have strong confidence in the main win, and the buy order funds are small, and the main funds have no obvious support action. In the seller's pending order, more funds are around 3.45, which indicates that the seller's confidence in the home win is relatively weak, and there is more abandonment of the phenomenon, which means that the dealer has reservations about the possibility of the home win.
- The highest transaction price of Kesheng is 2.3, and the current transaction price is 2.32. Villarreal's trading volume is significantly higher than home wins and draws, and the market's interest and support for away wins is obvious. Especially recently, the price of the away win has risen from a low of 1.95 to 2.32, indicating that the market's confidence in the away win has fluctuated, and some funds may enter the market at a higher price. The pending order data shows that Kesheng's buyer pending orders are relatively dense, especially in the range of 2.10 to 2.22, there is a large amount of funds, which indicates that a large number of funds are looking forward to entering the market in this range. Sellers' pending orders show that sellers are more defensive about prices above 2.30, which means that their confidence in away wins is not completely solid. Despite the high volume of transactions, the seller did not give up on receiving the goods completely.
- The highest traded price of a draw is 3.6, and the current traded price is 3.55. Judging from the trading volume, there is relatively little market interest in the draw, but some funds enter the market in the higher price range. The market did not expect too much for a draw. The pending orders show that the buyer pending orders for the tie are more scattered, indicating that retail investors are less willing to buy on the draw. Seller orders are more concentrated around 3.6, indicating that the bookmaker is more defensive about the possibility of a draw, but this outcome is not completely ruled out.
- Judging from the existing transaction data at the moment, the risk of winning is high, although the market funds have poured into the company, but the price has not fallen, which reflects that the institutional or main funds are not confident in the victory of Villarreal.
- The combination of high prices and large trading volumes may be that institutions are deliberately directing more funds to flow to away wins, thereby reducing the focus on other outcomes (especially home wins and draws). Therefore, it is necessary to be wary of this kind of operation of the institution against the guest victory.
Final Lottery Prediction Suggestion: Home +1 Win Two to Two
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.