On October 8, the first trading day after the National Day holiday, a huge number of A-share investors were paying attention to the moment when the market opened at 9:30.
A-shares opened with an astonishing increase. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 10.13% higher, the ChiNext Index rose 18.44% at the open, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 12.67% at the open. In the face of this epic market, many investors have expressed their feelings:
"The bank and securities can't be transferred, it's all 'server errors'."
"Fortunately, there is still half a position, otherwise it would be a big loss."
"A-shares" and "open and get off work" have become instant hot search keywords on the Internet platform. Trading data shows that 72 minutes after the opening of A-shares, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 650 billion yuan from the same time on the previous trading day.
On October 8, the market was volatile, and the Shanghai Composite Index pulled back intraday and rose again in the afternoon. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.59% to close at 3,489.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 9.17% to close at 11,495.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 17.25% to close at 2,550.28 points, Wind data showed. From the perspective of industry performance, Wind 24 secondary industries rose across the board. In terms of turnover, the full-day turnover of A-shares exceeded 3.45 trillion yuan, a record high.
Brokers grab customers
During the National Day holiday, Li Hui, an investment consultant of Western Securities, did not rest. His sales department arranges for employees to take turns on duty to receive customers who come to inquire.
Li Hui said that during the National Day holiday, there was an endless stream of shareholders who came to the business department to consult account opening and investment. He was on duty for one day and helped more than a dozen clients open securities accounts.
On October 4, Li Hui posted on WeChat Moments: Open an account without closing! On weekends and during the National Day, you can consult, open an account, and extend credit to the two financial institutions (financing and securities lending), which will not be closed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
On October 7, Western Securities issued a notice that on October 8, the time for bank-securities transfer was adjusted, of which the time for ICBC, CCB, Bank of China and China Merchants to start handling bank-securities transfer was 8:10. On October 8, Li Hui threw himself into his busy work at 8 o'clock.
In addition to Western Securities, on October 7, a number of securities firms such as CICC Wealth, GF Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities coordinated with banks to open the bank-securities business in advance, as early as 6:50.
On the morning of October 8 alone, Li Hui received more than 30 customers who came to consult account opening and other related businesses. Li Hui said that since the "9·24" new policy, there have been more customers to the sales department. Some customers forgot their passwords to activate, some customers asked to open a new account, and some customers came to open trading qualifications on the Beijing Stock Exchange......
Since 2010, Li Hui has worked in the securities industry for more than 14 years, and has also witnessed the "bull market" in 2014. Li Hui felt that this wave of market came more violently than the previous wave, especially on the morning of October 8, when the Shanghai Composite Index opened up by more than 10%, which was the first time he saw such a sharp rise in the market.
"The number of new accounts opened in the past two weeks has been almost the same as last year. I also have hundreds of videos recorded by clients who have forgotten their passwords. On the afternoon of October 8, Ms. Song, the account manager of a brokerage branch in Beijing's international trade area, said that she was busy guiding customers to open accounts online, change passwords, activate dormant accounts and other businesses during the National Day holiday; On October 7, he returned to work ahead of schedule to handle commission adjustment, account activation, margin financing and securities lending for customers, and responded to customers' inquiries about the opening conditions of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and ChiNext Board.
Ms. Song's branch was upgraded from the brokerage's previous business department in ITG, and it is also one of the largest branches of the brokerage in Beijing. After the close of trading on October 8, the company was still busy, "I found out that this customer XX opened an account", "Wait a while, I am queuing" and other voices are endless. It is understood that in addition to the people on duty during the holidays, the employees of the branch have been answering questions online during the holidays, and some have returned to work in advance.
"Today, some staff in the office building came directly to our branch to handle account opening and other business. After a while, we may go to the office building to distribute flyers, so that everyone knows that there is a brokerage in the office building, which is convenient for opening an account. The general manager of the branch told the Economic Observer. "In the past, [we] needed to attract customers, but now we don't need this kind of market at all," he said. We used to do institutional client business, and institutional clients were very busy in the past two days, so we gathered the strength of all the staff of the branch to do a good job in account opening, activation and other services. ”
Drop the bag for safety or queue up to enter the venue?
"I really want to sell houses and speculate in stocks. This is an unprecedented opportunity. On October 8, an investor said this on social platforms.
Some real estate agents also said that they have recently heard that some customers have even begun to list their properties on the second-hand trading platform in order to collect funds for stock speculation.
In the face of an epic market, some investors can't contain their excitement and are eager to try.
An investment consultant from the business department of a brokerage firm in the western region told the Economic Observer that during the holidays, investors' willingness to enter the market is not reduced. In terms of the age structure of the customer group, the post-80s and post-90s age groups are the majority, and there are even some post-00s customers.
On October 8, A-shares opened sharply higher and then fell rapidly, making many investors wary.
Wind data shows that today's main funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen had a net outflow of 169.815 billion yuan throughout the day. Among them, the net outflow of the main funds of the GEM was 45.182 billion yuan, and the net outflow of the main funds of the CSI 300 was 55.736 billion yuan.
On October 8, when A-shares opened, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 10%, and the ChiNext Index rose by nearly 18%. In just 20 minutes after the opening of the market, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, refreshing the previous historical record. By 72 minutes after the market opened, the turnover climbed further to 2 trillion yuan. The market rally did not last, with the Shanghai Composite Index narrowing its gains to 2% at one point, while the ChiNext Index's gains fell to about 10%.
At the same time, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market and FTSE China A50 Index futures was relatively weak. The Hang Seng Index fell more than 9% at one point, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell more than 14% at one point, almost erasing the gains of the entire National Day holiday. FTSE China A50 Index futures fell as much as 10%.
Some investors said that before the holiday, the family took out all the financial management to invest in stocks, and today the chasing high has already occurred a floating loss, and the current loss is nearly 30,000.
At the same time, the Economic Observer Network noticed that on the morning of October 8, some old shareholders were in their pockets after untying.
A post-80s investor told the Economic Observer that he sold one stock in the morning and settled in the bag. There are two other stocks that are still trapped, and he wants to wait for the market to pull back even further.
A senior professional shareholder also told the Economic Observer that this morning, he also carried out a position reduction operation. He feels that the market has risen too much in the short term, and it is estimated that there will be a pullback in the short term; When the market pulls back sharply again, it may be an opportunity to re-enter the market.
Li Hui feels that in recent trading days, the index has skyrocketed, most stocks have risen, and there may be a pullback in the short term, so it is recommended that investors do not chase higher.
How will the follow-up market go?
Recently, the confidence and expectation of some foreign investors in the A-share market is also improving.
Citi said in a post that China is embarking on a new round of massive leverage increases in the stock market, which could keep the rally going for some time. Fiscal policy is also accompanied by this leverage to provide additional demand growth, but with a somewhat lag. This momentum is likely to continue if earnings growth can pick up in time with valuations.
In addition, Goldman Sachs Research's equity strategy team upgraded China equities to "overweight" in its latest report and raised its price targets on the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index. Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its allocation views for several sectors.
China Securities Construction Investment believes that the current market sentiment has returned to the high zone after 3 years, and has returned to the excitement zone after 4 years. The current high investor sentiment means that the A-share market has entered a new stage.
Chen Guo of China Securities Construction Investment further pointed out that the overbought and oversold indicators are still far from the highs of April 2019 and July 2020, and the current pressure on overselling and falling is limited. Since then, there may be some correction in the market as sentiment has fallen, but this adjustment does not mean the end of the bull market.
The Economic Observer noted that Hua Sheng, an economist and professor at Southeast University, posted on Weibo that the V-shaped reversal in the securities market was mainly because the central government's decision changed market expectations and greatly increased people's confidence and expectations. Watson believes that the market will rise another 10% to 20% at today's point with effective support from policy, capital and economic fundamentals. Only by reaching and standing firm on that platform can the majority of shareholders and the basic people of public equity funds be able to basically turn losses into profits. Therefore, since this battle is struck, it cannot be defeated. Of course, emotional outbursts and hype from market participants can push the market to much higher levels.
Watson reminded that history has repeatedly proven that the mad bull market will eventually lead to a market crash, and the worst losses at that time have always been mainly retail investors. It should be said that the vast majority of stocks with a market value of 7 to 8 trillion yuan sold in the skyrocketing market trading in the first five days of the holiday have been thrown by retail investors. Therefore, both market investors and regulators should be wary of the stock market soaring out of control. A wave-like slow bull with a gradual improvement in economic fundamentals, rather than a big upheaval and a big upswing, will obviously be the goal of governments and regulators as well.
(Li Hui is a pseudonym in the article)