At 10 a.m. on October 8, a press conference attended by Zheng Shajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Liu Sushe, Zhao Chenxin, Li Chunlin, and Zheng Bei, deputy directors of the National Development and Reform Commission, was held as scheduled. Two days ago, the market was already looking forward to this press conference. The press conference did not clearly put forward the "big stimulus policy" expected by some market participants and suggested by some economists, but explained the whole picture of the "incremental policy package".
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on September 26 proposed that "we should grasp the key points, take the initiative, effectively implement the stock policy, and strengthen the introduction of incremental policies"; At the executive meeting of the State Council held on September 29, it was proposed to "study and deploy the implementation of a package of incremental policies".
At the press conference on the same day, Zheng Shajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in view of the new situation and new problems in the current economic operation...... While effectively implementing the stock policy, we will focus on five aspects: increasing the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, expanding effective domestic demand, increasing assistance to enterprises, promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilizing, and boosting the capital market.
The package of incremental policies "not only attaches importance to solving the current difficulties and problems, but also pays more attention to solving major problems in the medium and long-term development of the economy, strengthens the foundation, benefits the long-term and sustainable, and promotes high-quality development".
Wu Yaping, a researcher at the Investment Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that an important policy idea released by the package of incremental policies is to combine short-term macroeconomic control and long-term development, "The current policy not only focuses on consolidating the foundation for a short-term economic rebound, but also focuses on long-term high-quality development and high-level security." It also means that you can't solve short-term problems without creating more problems in the long term."
Judging from the current statement, this conference released the following signals worthy of attention:
First, judging from the information of the press conference, there has not yet been a signal to significantly boost investment.
In late September, a number of economists suggested the implementation of a package of stimulus policies, such as some researchers using 10% of GDP as the line to deduce a "10 trillion" stimulus policy; In an interview with this newspaper, Yu Yongding also said: "There are only three months left in 2024, and rushing into battle may cause many problems. The central government could start by coming up with a comprehensive stimulus package that tells the market what the government intends to do to further reverse expectations. ”
Yu Yongding's calculation is that if the growth rate of consumption in 2024 is 5% (in line with the planned GDP growth rate) and the growth rate of real estate and manufacturing investment is the same as that in 2023 (-9.6% and 6.5%), to achieve the GDP growth target of 5%, the growth rate of infrastructure investment should reach double digits and the scale should reach more than 20 trillion yuan.
These proposals generally focus on investment and emphasize the further strengthening of fiscal policy.
However, judging from the signals released by the press conference, it may be difficult for investment to rise as steeply as during the "four trillion" policy - the monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2009 once hit a historical high of 50%. Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in response to a reporter's question: "Coordinate the expansion of effective investment incremental policies and stock policies to promote the steady and orderly growth of investment."
Some policies have also signaled increased investment, but more focus on early release and full use of existing policy tools. For example, it is planned to issue a list of 100 billion yuan of "double" construction projects and a 100 billion yuan central budget investment plan in advance according to the procedures at the end of this month; intensify the promotion of 102 major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan; Urge the relevant localities to complete the issuance of the remaining 290 billion yuan of local government special bonds by the end of October.
Wu Yaping said that the meeting has released some important signals, reminding local governments to further do a good job in project planning and reserve work in advance, and do a good job in preliminary work such as project demonstration and decision-making, which is also to prepare for further expansion of effective investment.
A person familiar with the policy said that according to the process, if the fiscal policy is to be significantly adjusted, such as the issuance of additional special treasury bonds, it will need to be approved by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress at the end of October before it can be disclosed and implemented.
Some of the press conference was also about fiscal policy. For example, "we should strengthen support for local debt swaps to resolve debt risks" and "we should strengthen support for local governments to carry out debt swaps and resolve debt risks".
Second, promoting consumption will be a more important starting point for expanding domestic demand, and expanding domestic demand will be combined with benefiting people's livelihood.
One of the main problems facing the Chinese economy at present is the lack of aggregate demand. To boost domestic demand, investment and consumption are two important starting points, which side should be given priority to boost? There have been many rounds of discussion in the market.
In this press conference, Zheng Shajie said: "In view of the lack of effective domestic demand and other problems, the expansion of domestic demand incremental policy focus more on benefiting the people's livelihood and promoting consumption, and actively play an effective role in driving investment" "In terms of consumption, the focus is to combine the promotion of consumption and the people's livelihood, promote the income of low- and middle-income groups, and implement actions to boost consumption." ”
The specific policy involves three aspects: First, increase support for specific groups. For example, raising the standard of student financial assistance and expanding policy coverage, increasing the amount of national student loans for undergraduate students and graduate students, and promoting the reduction of loan interest rates; the second is to combine the "two new" to promote the continuous expansion of commodity consumption; The third is to expand the consumption of services such as pension and childcare.
Wu Yaping said that this is also one of the points worth paying attention to at this press conference, reflecting that the current idea of boosting consumption is more focused on precision and effectiveness, rather than the universal "money and coupons" discussed by some market participants before. Relatively speaking, the consumption elasticity of low-income groups is greater and the marginal benefits are better, and accurately increasing the support of low- and middle-income groups can more effectively boost consumption. In addition, the combination of promoting consumption and benefiting people's livelihood has also realized "one money for two purposes".
Third, the study and judgment of the current economic situation is still constantly adjusted.
The intensity of counter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies needs to be adjusted according to the macroeconomic situation.
The latest research and judgment of the current economy at this conference is: "Comprehensive analysis, from the perspective of the development trend, the fundamentals of the mainland's economic development have not changed, the favorable conditions such as large market potential and strong economic resilience have not changed, as the effect of various stock policies continues to be released, especially the introduction and implementation of incremental policies, the recent market expectations have improved significantly, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has rebounded rapidly, the stock market has picked up and risen, and the market consumption is strong during the 'Eleventh' holiday." We are full of confidence in achieving the goals and tasks of economic and social development for the whole year, and in maintaining sustained, stable and healthy economic and social development. ”
Zheng Shajie said at the press conference: "We believe that to accurately grasp the reality of China's economy, we must be comprehensive, objective and calm, look at the overall macro situation, look at the development trend, not only look at the present, but also look at the future." ”
Wu Yaping said: Macroeconomic policy decisions should be made in conjunction with the economic situation in the third quarter. At present, it will take more than 10 days for the overall economic operation in the third quarter to be fully presented, and then we can better judge the focus, intensity, and implementation rhythm of macroeconomic regulation and control policies.
Fourth, the package of incremental policies that are being implemented emphasizes comprehensiveness, systematization, pertinence, precision, effectiveness, and sustainability.
Zheng Shajie said at the press conference that the implementation of the package of incremental policies is a comprehensive and systematic work, and it is necessary to improve pertinence and accuracy, and enhance effectiveness and sustainability.
Zheng Shajie said that the package of incremental policies reflects three "more attention", that is, more attention is paid to improving the quality of economic development, more attention is paid to supporting the healthy development of the real economy and business entities, and more attention is paid to coordinating high-quality development and high-level security. The planning and formulation of these policies also embodies the four "persistences". The first is to adhere to the goal orientation, anchor the annual goals and tasks, make good use of the policy space, and strive to stimulate greater development potential; The second is to adhere to the problem-oriented, focus on the main business entities and social concerns, closely follow the economic and social development and the difficult problems in the production and operation of enterprises, and take more targeted measures; The third is to adhere to systematic policies, coordinate policies in various fields such as finance, finance, consumption, investment, real estate, stock market, employment, and people's livelihood, enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, and strengthen policy synergy; Fourth, adhere to the combination of long and short, coordinate the convergence of policies this year and next, promote the sustained, stable and healthy development of the economy, and ensure the smooth conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
Wu Yaping said that the package of incremental policies mentioned in the press conference is not limited to macroeconomic policies, but shows a stronger comprehensive and systematic nature. In addition to economic policy, it also involves many aspects of policies such as pension, employment, childbirth and even the rule of law. For example, law enforcement in different places and profit-seeking law enforcement in violation of regulations cannot be arbitrarily fined, inspected, or sealed indiscriminately. Promptly remind the places where the increase in fines and confiscation income is abnormal, and conduct supervision when necessary. In addition to short-term policies, it also involves cross-cyclical policies such as supporting future industrial development and encouraging and supporting childbirth, as well as "soft construction" such as many reforms, which show that the package of incremental policies focuses on the combination of short-term and long-term, soft construction and hard investment, and consumption and investment.