Text| Eye entertainment
As of 8 p.m. on October 7, the box office of the 2024 National Day stalls has approached the 2.1 billion mark, but the results are basically fixed here, a decrease of 700 million from last year, falling back to the level of 2018.
After experiencing a sharp decline in the box office of the summer vacation stalls compared with last year, and the box office of the Mid-Autumn Festival stalls returned to the level of 2014, the domestic film market showed a complex ambivalence towards the National Day stalls.
On the one hand, the industry expects that high-quality works can turn the tide and prevent the decline of the film market from spreading, so as to avoid a negative impact on the more important Spring Festival stalls in the future;
On the other hand, except for the "Volunteer Army", which has formed a reputation for IP, various film and television companies have hardly been able to launch more weighty works to actually boost the market. The sequel to the previously high-profile "Nezha's Demon Boy Descends to the World" and "Sauce Garden Lane" directed by Chen Kexin did not appear in the list of new films on the National Day, and the withdrawal of the movie "In and Out of Peace" has made "withdrawal" a common phenomenon in the 2024 film market.
However, looking back at the box office trend, this year's box office decline is not entirely caused by the market downturn.
Different from the steady trend of the National Day box office in the past few years, which first rose month-on-month and then gradually declined, the box office of this year's National Day stalls sold nearly 500 million on the first day, a year-on-year increase of nearly 36%, showing the market's enthusiasm for National Day movies. But then, the box office growth momentum did not continue, and the box office fell sharply by 26.4% month-on-month on the next day, setting a new high for the next-day decline in recent years, and the month-on-month decline on the third day was still as high as 16%.
The reason for this may need to be found in the work itself.
Open the film list, there is no theme I want to see
The main theme movie, as a "frequent visitor" of the National Day file, has occupied an important position in the National Day file in recent years. "Changjin Lake", which will be released in 2021, has become the champion of the Chinese film box office. However, with the enthusiasm of the market, the main theme film is also facing the problem of overcapacity and uneven quality.
During this year's National Day schedule, the much-talked-about main theme movie "Volunteers: The Battle of Survival" continued the success of director Chen Kaige in this field. The film received high ratings of 7.3 and 9.7 points on Douban and Maoyan platforms respectively, maintaining the word-of-mouth advantage of its predecessor. Despite this, the audience still seems relatively limited in terms of choice, and the market presents a certain singularity.
At the same time, several other major commercial films such as "749 Bureau" and "In and Out of the Peace" failed to meet market expectations. Among them, "749 Bureau" was on the hot search on the second day of its release due to negative reviews, and the Douban score fell from 5.0 to 4.6 points, and the box office trend also declined all the way. and "In and Out of Peace" was quickly eliminated from the market due to problems such as forced sensationalism in the plot and far-fetched story development.
Although "Volunteers: The Battle for Survival" leads the National Day schedule, it still faces huge challenges in surpassing the box office performance of its predecessor "Changjin Lake". The audience appeal of the main theme has shown a rapid downward trend in the past two years. This trend is clearly reflected in the box office changes of the "Volunteers" series of films: in 2021 and 2022, the box office of the two "Changjin Lake" exceeded 3.2 billion and 4 billion respectively, while the box office of "Volunteers: Heroes Attack" released in 2023 is only 498 million.
In addition, the case of Xiang Ling, an audience, also reflects a problem in the current market. She originally planned to go to the cinema with her friends to watch a movie during the National Day holiday, but when she opened the film list, she found that she couldn't find a movie she wanted to watch in terms of themes.
The films in the National Day schedule show a certain "sense of obsolescence" in the selection of topics, which is not only reflected in the genre themes, such as "In and Out of Peace", which is not completely in line with the current audience's emotions. It is also reflected in the level of production and technology. In the case of "749 Bureau", due to the funding gap and the years-long production cycle, it is questionable whether its visual effects can meet the aesthetic needs of the current audience.
Looking back at historical data, from 2014 to 2018, the domestic National Day box office was mainly dominated by comedy, action and crime films. However, since "My Motherland and Me" in 2019, the main theme film has gradually become the mainstream of the market, and the success of "Me and My Hometown" in 2020, "Changjin Lake" in 2021 and "Ten Thousand Miles Home" in 2022 has further consolidated the status of the main theme film in the National Day file. This trend has led to a relatively limited choice of audiences in 2024, and the market presents a path dependence on the main theme theme.
Despite this, the National Day file has also made some attempts in diversifying themes. For example, "The Road to Fire" takes the theme of abduction as the core, and attracts the audience through the narrative mode of crime and coolness; "Panda Project" relies on Jackie Chan's kung fu film brand and family temperament, showing market potential beyond expectations. However, the surprises of these films are often based on low market expectations, and it is difficult to become a dark horse to save the market.
On the whole, the 2024 National Day film market presents a complex situation. Although the main theme film still occupies an important position, it faces the problems of audience fatigue and uneven quality. Although "Volunteers: Survival Battle" once again won the box office championship, indicating that the main theme movie is still a popular theme to chase on the National Day, this is only beneficial to the box office of a single movie, but it weakens the appeal of the entire schedule to the audience. Although the attempt to diversify the subject matter has made progress, it is still difficult to meet the increasingly diverse needs of the audience.
Withdrawn and scolded, there is no masterpiece in the National Day file
In this year's National Day film market, there is an obvious lack of discussion in social communication. The lack of film works that can arouse a wide range of curiosity and topics among the audience has made it difficult to sustain the heat of the film market, and the box office performance is "weak to follow".
In terms of box office and ratings, although the war film "Volunteers: The Battle for Survival" ranks in the forefront, as a series of Chen Kaige's main theme films, its "freshness" is seriously lacking, and it is difficult to make big waves in the audience and communication. The bottom four at the box office, "749 Bureau", "Road to Fire", "Panda Plan", and "Crisis Route", their Douban scores all hovered around 6.4, and the quality was not enough to support the heavy task of the National Day box office topic.
On the contrary, the hot topics of this year's National Day movies are almost occupied by negative content. Among them, "749 Bureau", as a high-profile National Day blockbuster, sparked extensive discussions in the early days of its release. However, despite topping the National Day box office on the first day, its reputation suffered a waterloo. Douban's opening score was only 5.0, and it quickly dropped to 4.4, becoming a relatively rare low-score case among blockbusters in recent years.
Previously, the publicity strategy of "749 Bureau" achieved remarkable results in the early stage, using mysterious elements and historical stories, as well as director Lu Chuan's personal experience as a selling point, which successfully attracted a lot of attention. During the pre-sale period, the film topped the pre-sale list, and won the box office crown on the first day of release, with strong market appeal.
However, after the release of the film, the audience's feedback was very different from expectations, and the content was seriously inconsistent with the promotional materials, resulting in the spread of audience disappointment and dissatisfaction. Negative reviews are frequent on social media, and there are more than 10,000 negative reviews on the Maotao platform, with a negative review rate of about 40%. #749难看#的热搜词条更是在上映首日便赫然在榜, it has sparked extensive discussion and attention.
Faced with the grim situation of the collapse of word-of-mouth, director Lu Chuan responded quickly, posting three Weibo posts in a row to express his willingness to take all responsibilities, and asked the audience not to point the finger at the actors and the main creative team.
However, the negative impact of word-of-mouth has already appeared, and the day after its release, the daily box office of "749 Bureau" fell off a cliff from the predicted 120 million to 70 million. With the continuous fermentation of word-of-mouth, the box office of the film showed a trend of comprehensive collapse in the follow-up.
Also facing negative public opinion is director Liu Jiangjiang's other masterpiece "In and Out of Peace" after "Life Events". The film is based on the true story of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and tells the touching story of more than 40 prisoners who assisted in the rescue after the earthquake. Although it was highly anticipated because of its unique theme and background when the official announcement of the National Day file, the film's word-of-mouth and box office performance were sluggish after its release, and it was finally announced that it would be withdrawn only a few days after its release.
According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, as of October 3, the box office of "In and Out of Peace" was only 17.899 million yuan, far lower than other films in the same schedule.
This box office performance is not only not comparable to the head film "Volunteers: The Battle for Survival", but even inferior to some small and medium-budget films. The reason for the withdrawal of the film is mainly due to two aspects: first, the focus of the plot is not properly grasped, and the emotional entanglements are too shown, which does not match the tense and exciting rescue process expected by the audience; The second is that the reality of the posters and trailers is too strong, which is contrary to the general family-watching appeal of the audience on the National Day.
The dismal results of the National Day schedule undoubtedly increase the difficulty of the next cold schedule. In the current situation of limited new film lineup, it is not easy for most projects to break 100 million. The next opportunity for the film market to regain confidence may have to wait until the arrival of next year's Spring Festival.