Text: Yan Xiang and Xu Ruchun's mainland CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year in September, a smaller increase than in August and flat month-on-month. Affected by factors such as fluctuations in international commodity prices and insufficient effective demand in the domestic market, PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, a larger decline than in August, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, which was smaller than that in August. The core conclusion: month-on-month, clothing and food prices rose in the CPI in September; On a year-on-year basis, sub-prices mostly increased. In September, food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped significantly compared with August. Clothing prices rose 0.8% month-on-month, 1 percentage point faster than in August. On a year-on-year basis, the prices of clothing, food, tobacco and alcohol all rose, with clothing prices rising by 1.3% year-on-year in September. The prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 2.3% year-on-year in September, and the growth rate expanded. In terms of services, with the decrease in travel at the end of the summer vacation, the prices of transportation and communication decreased month-on-month, falling by 1.3% month-on-month in September, and the prices of education, culture and entertainment fell by 0.3% month-on-month, both of which were larger than those in August. In September, the CPI rose by 0.15 percentage points month-on-month by food, tobacco and alcohol. Among them, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits drove the CPI up by 0.11 and 0.04 percentage points month-on-month, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, prices of fresh vegetables and fruits rose by 4.3% and 2.1% respectively in September. It is worth noting that on a year-on-year basis, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 22.9% in September, a large increase. The year-on-year decline in PPI means of production intensified, and the marginal improvement from the previous month improved; The decline in the price of means of subsistence widened slightly. In September, the price of PPI means of production fell by 3.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from August, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8%, and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August. In terms of means of living, prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year in September, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from August, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August. Among the main sub-items of PPI, the prices of means of production fell significantly year-on-year. In September, the prices of all sub-items of means of production fell year-on-year. The prices of raw materials, mining and processing under the means of production decreased by 3.2%, 2.5% and 3.3% respectively year-on-year. The declines widened by 2.4, 3.4 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from August. In terms of means of living, except for clothing prices, which fell by 0.3% year-on-year, the decline narrowed, and the prices of other sub-items all fell year-on-year and the decline widened compared with August. In September, the prices of most industries in the PPI sub-industry decreased year-on-year, among which the decline in raw material-related industries was more obvious. The price of coal mining and washing industry fell by 2.6% year-on-year, which was wider than that in August, but with the heating season approaching, coal prices have been repaired, and the price level of related industries is expected to be repaired. With the impact of the decline in international oil prices, the price of oil and gas extraction fell by 10.1% year-on-year, an increase of 6.8 percentage points compared with August. Prices in utilities increased slightly year-on-year, with gas production and supply prices up 0.4% year-on-year, and water production and supply prices up 0.8% year-on-year. Risk warning: first, macro changes exceed expectations, second, geopolitical emergencies, third, large fluctuations in overseas markets, etc. Report text 1 The month-on-month decline in PPI narrowed slightly in September, the year-on-year month-on-month decline in CPI expanded, and the month-on-month decline in PPI narrowed. In September, the mainland CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year, which was smaller than that in August and flat month-on-month. Affected by factors such as fluctuations in international commodity prices and insufficient effective demand in the domestic market, PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, a larger decline than in August, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, which was smaller than that in August.
2 The month-on-month increase in food prices slowed down, and from a month-on-month perspective, clothing and food prices rose in the CPI in September; On a year-on-year basis, sub-prices mostly increased. In September, food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped significantly compared with August. Clothing prices rose 0.8% month-on-month, 1 percentage point faster than in August. On a year-on-year basis, the prices of clothing, food, tobacco and alcohol all rose, with clothing prices rising by 1.3% year-on-year in September. The prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 2.3% year-on-year in September, and the growth rate expanded. In terms of services, with the decrease in travel at the end of the summer vacation, the prices of transportation and communication decreased month-on-month, falling by 1.3% month-on-month in September, and the prices of education, culture and entertainment fell by 0.3% month-on-month, both of which were larger than those in August.
In September, the CPI rose by 0.15 percentage points month-on-month by food, tobacco and alcohol. Among them, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits drove the CPI up by 0.11 and 0.04 percentage points month-on-month, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, prices of fresh vegetables and fruits rose by 4.3% and 2.1% respectively in September. It is worth noting that on a year-on-year basis, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 22.9% in September, a large increase.
3. The price of means of production declined, and the year-on-year decline in PPI means of production intensified, and the marginal improvement from the previous month improved; The decline in the price of means of subsistence widened slightly. In September, the price of PPI means of production fell by 3.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from August, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8%, and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August. In terms of means of living, prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year in September, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from August, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August.
Among the main sub-items of PPI, the prices of means of production fell significantly year-on-year. In September, the prices of all sub-items of means of production fell year-on-year. The prices of raw materials, mining and processing under the means of production decreased by 3.2%, 2.5% and 3.3% respectively year-on-year. The declines widened by 2.4, 3.4 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from August. In terms of means of living, except for clothing prices, which fell by 0.3% year-on-year, the decline narrowed, and the prices of other sub-items all fell year-on-year and the decline widened compared with August.
In September, the prices of most industries in the PPI sub-industry decreased year-on-year, among which the decline in raw material-related industries was more obvious. The price of coal mining and washing industry fell by 2.6% year-on-year, which was wider than that in August, but with the heating season approaching, coal prices have been repaired, and the price level of related industries is expected to be repaired. With the impact of the decline in international oil prices, the price of oil and gas extraction fell by 10.1% year-on-year, an increase of 6.8 percentage points compared with August. Prices in utilities increased slightly year-on-year, with gas production and supply prices up 0.4% year-on-year, and water production and supply prices up 0.8% year-on-year.
4 Risk Warning
The first is that the macro changes exceed expectations, the second is the geopolitical emergency, and the third is the large fluctuations in overseas markets.
This article is from the report "Inflation Data Commentary: CPI Fluctuates Slightly, PPI Under Pressure YoY" released by Huafu Securities Research Institute on October 14, 2024.
Analyst:
燕翔， S0210523050003
许茹纯， S0210523060005
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