The bottom of the 3,200-point shock box was tested again, and the countercyclical fiscal policy led the second wave
Today's news:
[The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, Tesla fell more than 8%] The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up last Friday night, with the Dow up 0.97%, up 1.21% this week; The Nasdaq rose 0.33%, up 1.13% for the week; The S&P 500 rose 0.61% and is up 1.11% for the week. The Dow and S&P 500 continued to hit new closing highs. Large technology stocks were mixed, Tesla fell more than 8%, the company's robotaxi robotaxis failed to meet investors' expectations, Broadcom fell more than 2%, and Amazon and Meta rose more than 1%. Cryptocurrencies, diversified banks, and non-ferrous metals were among the top gainers, with Coinbase up more than 7%, Bit Digital up more than 6%, Wells Fargo and Century Aluminum up more than 5%, Bank of United States, JPMorgan Chase up more than 4%, and Citigroup and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial up more than 3%.
Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press conference today that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will take the following measures to promote and support the development of unicorn enterprises in the mainland. The first is to establish a unified national unicorn enterprise cultivation system with linkage between ministries and provinces. The second is to support the technological innovation of unicorn enterprises, encourage and guide unicorn enterprises to carry out technical research around national strategic needs, and master more "unique skills". The third is to increase financial support for unicorn enterprises, give full play to the role of industry and finance cooperation platforms, and support the listing, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring of unicorn enterprises. Fourth, we will look forward to the layout of future industries, focusing on new fields and new tracks such as atomic-level manufacturing, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G, and develop and expand unicorn enterprises. Fifth, support unicorn enterprises to integrate into the global innovation network and carry out innovation cooperation. We especially welcome international innovation teams to start businesses in China, as well as foreign investment in unicorn enterprises in China, and we are willing to share the development opportunities of China's innovation and entrepreneurship with the world.
On October 12, Minister of Finance Lan Foan introduced at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that the Ministry of Finance will launch a package of targeted incremental policy measures in the near future on the basis of accelerating the implementation of the determined policies, focusing on stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and reducing risks. At the same time, other policy tools are also being studied, and the central government still has a lot of room for borrowing and deficit improvement. Experts said that the package of incremental measures launched by the Ministry of Finance this time is very strong and targeted, which is expected to bring benign guidance to the market and inject strong confidence into the current steady growth of China's economy.
[Weekend swipe! Market opportunities may move towards a structured A-share three main lines! On October 12, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, at which the Ministry of Finance introduced a package of targeted incremental policy measures that will be launched in the near future around stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and reducing risks. Some professionals believe that although some of the policy directions mentioned in this meeting are "expected", the official positive statement is really "unexpected". According to the analysis, the conference may be better than expected for equity assets, and if the follow-up fiscal stimulus is implemented, it will enhance risk appetite and boost market confidence. However, judging from the trend of interest rate bonds on Saturday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell by 0.5BP and the 10-year bond rose by 0.15BP, which means that the market is still divided on this release.
[Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: The Market Bottom is Basically Proven and the Stock Market Will Regain Strength! CITIC Securities: The fiscal policy exceeded expectations, and the market entered a shift period; CICC: The bottom of the market is basically proven, and the market is expected to stabilize and rebound in the future; Huatai Securities: Marginal benefits of the high G-end receivable exposure industry; Haitong Securities: The market may have entered a stage of shock, Guotai Junan: After the adjustment, the stock market will regain its strength.
In the first half of 2024, 41 listed companies will carry out data asset entry work, with a total amount of 1.364 billion yuan, an increase of 1634.65% compared with the first quarter. The entry of data resources into tables is accelerating, and data assetization is gradually becoming an important part of enterprise assets.
In order to sprint to the "last mile" of the official commercial use of HarmonyOS and further prosper the HarmonyOS ecosystem, Huawei recently released the HarmonyOS Native Application Developer Incentive Program. According to the announcement, developers will complete the development of HarmonyOS native apps from October 10 to December 31, 2024 and launch them on the HarmonyOS NEXT app marketplace, and meet the corresponding incentive conditions to have a chance to receive incentives. The cumulative maximum reward for a single individual developer is 100,000 yuan, and the cumulative maximum reward for a single enterprise developer or service provider is 1 million yuan in cash. According to the research report of Zhongtai Securities, the native application ecology of Hongmeng is maturing, and the large-scale commercialization of Hongmeng is about to be implemented in 2024, which is expected to drive a large number of application software manufacturers to adapt, migrate, and develop work, and Hongmeng industry chain companies will benefit.
[New energy is good for sudden transmission! ] The wind power track ushered in major results! There is good news from the new energy track. First of all, the wind power track has ushered in major results. Secondly, the latest sales data of new energy vehicles also exceeded expectations. At the same time, China's auto exports also continued to grow strongly last year, with both passenger cars and new energy vehicles hitting a record high in September.
As of October 11, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 823.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.426 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 746.634 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.383 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total financing balance of the two cities was 1.57002 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.809 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
This morning, the market opened 24 points 3241 points higher, bottomed out 3203 points, and closed at the highest point of 3271 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose 1.56%, 1.52%, 1.66%, 1.64%, 0.91%, 0.64%, 1.57% and 2.25%. The ratio of individual stocks is 4586:674, and the ratio of price limit is 104:5. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 961 billion, a decrease of 22.6 billion from the previous trading day.
When the long holiday fell for four consecutive days, from the highest point of 3674 points to 3187 points, a decline of nearly 500 points, although many people in the market mistakenly thought that this round of rally was over. But I firmly believe that this is a reasonable suppression and normal adjustment of the 9-day 1000-point market, and the 3200-point shock box is expected to become the bottom of the shock box. Sure enough, under the guidance of the counter-cyclical and unexpected fiscal policy of the Ministry of Finance on 10.12, the market only bottomed out again at 3203 points in the morning, and then reflexively went up. All 12 indices showed a strong rebound.
If the first wave of 2748-3674 points and 926 points of rocket-like soaring market was ignited by the central bank's larger-than-expected supportive monetary policy and stock market policy, then the second wave of the market starting from 3200 was detonated by the unexpected countercyclical fiscal policy. Although the number of expansionary fiscal policies has yet to be approved by the National People's Congress at the end of October, good expectations themselves are a force that leads the stock market upward. The best gains in the morning were diversified finance, aviation, real estate, construction materials, banks and other sectors, all of which directly benefited from the expansionary fiscal policy.
However, as of last Friday, 12.8 trillion trading volume had piled up above 3,200 points, forming a huge hedge plate. Therefore, the "fast bull" that soared like a rocket before will no longer exist, and with the "slow bull" trend as the new normal, there will still be fierce fighting between the long and short sides. Therefore, there will be a lot of shocks in the range of 3200-3300 points, mainly structural sectors and individual stocks. Performance (including three quarterly reports), high growth, new quality productivity, as well as real estate, infrastructure, mergers and acquisitions and restructuring sectors that benefit from favorable policies, will become the main line of market rotation and rise.
The CSI A500ETF, which will be listed tomorrow, is a good choice for investors with lighter positions, which is equivalent to China's most liquidity, weight, coverage and quality United States S&P 500, which has medium-term investment value.
Afternoon attention: Can the market close above 3250 points below? Can the upper side close above 3280? 4586:674 can the disparity between individual stocks rise and fall and expand? Can the trading volume be above 1.5 trillion?