The Ili River: the "Achilles heel" of Kazakhstan?
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Kazakhstan, the name, for many, may be just a blurry patch of color on the map. The land is vast and sparsely populated, and it is rich in minerals, which seems to be associated with words such as "distant" and "desolate".
But if you dig deeper, you will find that this Central Asian country is far more complex and important than you think. And the key to understanding Kazakhstan lies in one river - the Ili River.
The river, which originates in China's Tianshan Mountains, nourishes Kazakhstan's richest land and is the country's biggest ecological concern. It is like the heel of Achilles in Greece, a source of strength and a hidden crisis.
1. Footnotes of geography: The Ili River, the intersection of transnational destinies
If you flip through the map, you will see that the Ili River Valley resembles a giant wedge, embedded in the western foothills of the Tien Shan Mountains.
This river valley, which stretches for 360 kilometers from east to west and 275 kilometers from north to south, is surrounded by mountains on three sides, and the terrain is low in the west and high in the east, like a natural funnel, gathering the snowmelt and precipitation of the Tianshan Mountains into a powerful stream.
But the fate of this river does not belong to one country alone. It crosses national borders and connects China's Xinjiang and Kazakhstan, becoming a common geographical heritage of both regions.
And Kazakhstan undoubtedly has a larger share of this cross-border resource distribution – it owns about 70% of the Ili Valley, equivalent to 72,800 square kilometers. This figure is enough to show the importance of the Ili River for Kazakhstan.
Not only that, but the Ili Valley is also the population and agricultural center of Kazakhstan. The Trans-Ili Basin, a region fed by the Ili River, is one of the most densely populated regions in Kazakhstan.
Almaty, located on the edge of the basin, is the largest city in Kazakhstan and even the five Central Asian countries, with a population of more than 2 million. The history of the city is also intertwined with the fate of the Ili River.
From the military fortress "Verne" in the mid-19th century, to the capital of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic during the Soviet era, to the signing place of the "Almaty Declaration" that witnessed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the history of Almaty is a condensed modern history of Central Asia.
And all this is inseparable from the silent nourishment of the Ili River.
Second, the lifeblood of the economy: the Ili River, the "rice bowl" of Kazakhstan
For Kazakhstan, the Ili River is not just a river, but also the economic lifeblood of the country. Its influence permeates Kazakhstan's agriculture, industry, urban development, and even national security.
First of all, the Ili Valley is the "granary" of Kazakhstan. With fertile land and abundant water resources, it is one of the most important agricultural regions in Kazakhstan.
The Ili Valley, along with the West Siberian Plain of the Irtysh River Basin, constitutes Kazakhstan's vast arable land and has made the country the largest food producer in Central Asia.
With an annual grain output of more than 21 million tons, it is not only able to meet domestic demand, but also can be exported in large quantities, earning valuable foreign exchange for the country.
Secondly, the Ili River also provides an important support for the industrial development of Kazakhstan. Abundant water and energy are the cornerstones of industrial development. Industrial cities such as Almaty have been able to grow and develop precisely because of the resources provided by the Ili River.
Kazakhstan's industrial base, partly inherited from the former Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union's industrialization program, Kazakhstan was an important industrial region.
Today, Kazakhstan's metallurgical industry, machinery manufacturing industry, food processing industry, automobile manufacturing industry and other industries still occupy an important position in the national economy.
In 2023, industrial and manufacturing output accounted for 27% of Kazakhstan's GDP, which is enough to prove the importance of industry in this country.
Thirdly, the Ili River also plays a crucial role in the urban development of Kazakhstan. Almaty, the largest city in Central Asia, is inseparable from the resources and geographical location of the Ili Valley.
From a military fortress in the mid-19th century, to the capital of Kazakhstan, to today's economic center, every transformation of Almaty is inseparable from the nourishment of the Ili River.
The Ili River Valley, which provides Almaty with the resources and space it needs to develop, also shapes the unique charm of the city.
Finally, the Ili River is also a guarantee of water security in Kazakhstan. In arid Central Asia, the importance of water resources cannot be overstated.
The Ili River provides more than half of the freshwater resources of southeastern Kazakhstan, with a per capita water resource of more than 5,000 cubic meters. This figure is particularly precious in Central Asia, where water resources are scarce.
It can be said that the Ili River is the lifeline of Kazakhstan, without which there would be no prosperity and stability in Kazakhstan.
3. Ecological Alarm Bell: The Ili River, a "Time Bomb" in Danger
However, the Ili River, the "lifeline", is now facing severe ecological challenges. Overexploitation, climate change, and human intervention have overwhelmed the river and cast a shadow over Kazakhstan's future.
It's like a "ticking time bomb" that could detonate at any time and bring great disaster to the country.
The Sarysik Atyrau Desert, the "Sea of Death" in southeastern Kazakhstan, is expanding at an alarming rate. The lower reaches of the Ili River flow through the northern side of this desert, bringing a touch of greenery to the edge of the desert.
However, due to climate change and anthropogenic factors, the runoff of the Ili River is decreasing, which makes the expansion of the Saryesik Atyrau Desert even more unscrupulous.
The expansion of the desert not only threatens the ecological environment of the Ili River Delta, but also has a profound impact on the ecological balance of Lake Balkhash.
The Ili River Delta, once a wetland rich in water and grass, is now shrinking. The construction of the Capchagai reservoir and the increase in water for agricultural irrigation led to a sharp decrease in the volume of water in the Ili River, which flows into Lake Balkhash.
As a result, the tidal flats in the delta are not adequately moistened, the land is gradually salinized, the vegetation is withered, and the ecosystem is crumbling. Once-thriving fishing and agriculture have also declined, and the lives of local residents have been severely affected.
Lake Balkhash, a huge lake that straddles southeastern Kazakhstan, is also suffering from the decline in the volume of the Ili River. Lake Balkhash is a peculiar lake, it is half salt water and half fresh water, forming a peculiar landscape of "one lake and two waters".
The inflow of fresh water from the Ili River is key to maintaining the ecological balance of the western freshwater area of Lake Balkhash.
However, with the reduction of runoff from the Ili River, the saltwater area of Lake Balkhash is expanding, and the area of freshwater is shrinking day by day, and the lake's ecosystem is facing a great threat.
The Kapchagai Reservoir, a large-scale water conservancy project in the middle reaches of the Ili River, has provided water for irrigation in cities and agriculture such as Almaty, but it has also had an irreversible impact on the ecological environment of the lower reaches of the Ili River.
The construction of the reservoir has changed the natural hydrological cycle of the Ili River, reduced the amount of runoff downstream, and exacerbated the ecological problems of the delta and Lake Balkhash.
This is a typical case of "pressing the gourd to float the scoop", which solves the water problem in some areas in the short term, but brings greater ecological risks.
4. A treasure trove of resources: Kazakhstan, an undervalued potential stock
Despite the serious ecological challenges, we cannot ignore the enormous development potential of Kazakhstan. The country's rich mineral resources, strong industrial base, and unique agricultural conditions are powerful engines for its future development.
Kazakhstan is a veritable "treasure trove of resources". Its oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, uranium ore, manganese ore, chrome ore, gold and other mineral reserves are very rich, especially the oil resources in the Caspian Sea region.
It has also made Kazakhstan an important member of the global energy map. These rich mineral resources provide a solid material foundation for Kazakhstan's economic development.
Kazakhstan has also inherited a relatively well-developed industrial system from the former Soviet Union. In metallurgy, machinery manufacturing, food processing, automobile manufacturing and other fields, Kazakhstan has a certain industrial base.
In 2023, industrial and manufacturing output accounted for 27% of Kazakhstan's GDP, indicating that industry remains an important pillar of Kazakhstan's economy.
In addition to minerals and industry, Kazakhstan's agriculture also has considerable advantages. The vast arable land, suitable climatic conditions, and important agricultural regions such as the Ili Valley provide favorable conditions for agricultural development in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan is the largest grain producer in Central Asia, which is enough to prove its agricultural strength.
V. Crossroads of the Future: The Ili River, Kazakhstan's Choice
The Ili River, the mother river that feeds Kazakhstan, is facing unprecedented challenges. It is both the lifeline of Kazakhstan and the "Achilles heel" of the country.
How to balance economic development and ecological protection, how to cope with the challenges brought about by climate change, and how to make the resources of the Ili River better serve the sustainable development of Kazakhstan are all issues that the Kazakh government and people must seriously consider.
Kazakhstan has abundant resources and great development potential, but if the ecological problems of the Ili River basin are not effectively solved, then these potentials may be lost.
Kazakhstan must realize that the ecological environment is the foundation of economic development, and the protection of the Ili River is the protection of Kazakhstan's future. Only by taking the road of sustainable development can the "pearl" of the Ili River continue to shine and make the future of Kazakhstan brighter.
Kazakhstan's choice is not only related to the fate of the country itself, but also to the ecological security and sustainable development of the entire Central Asian region.
In these times of challenges and opportunities, Kazakhstan needs to make wise choices and embark on a development path of harmonious coexistence between man and nature.