The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in northern Kazakhstan was once the main nuclear test site during the Soviet era. Between 1949 and 1989, more than 450 nuclear tests were conducted here, laying the groundwork for the Soviet Union and later Russia's vast arsenal of nuclear weapons. However, the test also cast a nuclear shadow on the former Soviet republic, and nuclear energy has become a political taboo in the country. Today, Kazakhstan is facing energy shortages, and the Kazakh government has obtained permission to build a nuclear power plant through a referendum. It's just that for this Central Asian country, this is just the beginning. Standing at the crossroads of Central Asia, the construction of large-scale projects is bound to change the geopolitical situation facing Astana.
Central Asian countries with energy shortages
Kazakhstan is currently facing a serious energy shortage. The country has an existing power gap of 1,500 megawatts, which the Ministry of Energy expects could increase to 6.2 gigawatts by 2030. By 2035, electricity consumption is expected to rise to 152.4 billion kWh, compared to 135 billion kWh from existing power plants. Coal-fired power plants in many countries are old and in need of extensive repairs and modernization, but these projects are costly and unlikely to fully address the growing energy demand. Kazakhstan's electricity production relies on 222 power plants, mainly coal-fired power generation, supplemented by some hydroelectric power plants and a growing renewable energy sector. The majority of renewable energy facilities are wind power plants (59 facilities with a total capacity of 1.409 GW) and solar power plants (46 facilities with a total capacity of 1.222 GW).
One possible solution is the construction of nuclear power plants. On October 6, more than 71% of Kazakhstan citizens supported the development of nuclear energy in the country. Nuclear energy will not only bridge the energy gap, but also help Kazakhstan meet its carbon neutrality commitments. The country has the world's largest uranium reserves and has a solid scientific and technological base in nuclear technology, which is well positioned for the development of nuclear energy. Kazakhstan is a vast country with the potential for a massive expansion of wind and solar energy. However, given the country's growing energy needs, nuclear energy appears to be the most viable option to ensure a stable power supply. A nuclear reactor is capable of producing significantly more energy than most renewable energy sources.
In 2023, the Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy announced four main contenders for nuclear power plant projects: China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), Korea Power Commune (KHNP), France Electric Power Company (EDF) and Russia China Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom). While it is unclear which company will lead the construction, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev · suggested that the most appropriate option would be for a consortium of international developers to jointly undertake the project. He stressed that in-depth analysis and negotiation must be carried out before a final decision can be made.
Kazakhstan is expected to make a decision on suppliers and project partners for nuclear power plants in 2025. According to the First Deputy Prime Minister of ·Kazakhstan, Roman Sklyar, the feasibility study and the development of technical documentation for the project will take about two and a half years, after which construction will begin. Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan has pursued a policy of so-called "pluralistic diplomacy" – building and balancing relations with a number of global powers. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that the construction of Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant should be entrusted to "an international consortium", indicating that he was still balancing the interests of various external powers.
The historical trauma of nuclear energy
In Central Asia, the use of nuclear materials has always been a rather sensitive issue. During Soviet times, Kazakhstan was the site of hundreds of nuclear weapons tests. This has left large tracts of land uninhabitable and affected the health of thousands of people. While most of the global perception of radiation comes from acute radiation events such as Hiroshima and Chernobyl, the inhabitants of the Semipalatinsk region have been exposed to lower doses of radiation for a longer period of time, and the effects of this radiation are more insidious. Researchers in Kazakhstan have been studying the health effects experienced by generations experiencing these explosions, and the results show an increased risk of cancer and even signs that cardiovascular problems may be passed down from generation to generation.
Despite some discoveries, fear and uncertainty continue to spread in the region. Local residents often blame nuclear testing for various health problems, although these links are not always backed by science. Valentina Nikonchik, a survivor ·of the 1953 hydrogen bomb test, recalls the moment when the explosion knocked her to the ground. Later, she developed heart disease and thyroid disease, which she believed were related to radiation.
The Soviet authorities' indifference to the spread of radioactive fallout allowed nuclear testing to be carried out for years without regard to the risks to local communities. After Kazakhstan became independent in 1991, some medical records were destroyed or sent back to Moscow, leaving today's researchers with incomplete data to study the long-term effects. However, the country's health archives remain an important tool for understanding the impact of nuclear testing, which records the health of more than 350,000 people affected by radiation. For many residents of Semeh, this dark history is a heavy burden. In Semey, the legacy of the test site is not as obvious as the dilapidated infrastructure, but the scars are still deep, especially for children born with disabilities that can be caused by radiation. Children like Artur and Maria, who live in local orphanages, have become symbolic of the intergenerational impact of nuclear testing.
Kazakhstan's history of nuclear testing, especially the legacy of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, continues to affect public sentiment, with many citizens wary of the potential risks of nuclear energy. There is also significant opposition among environmentalists and civil society groups, who are concerned about possible environmental risks. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev acknowledged these concerns, but stressed that Kazakhstan needs its own nuclear power generation capacity, but must also ensure the highest safety standards.
Geopolitical factors of nuclear power plants
Nevertheless, proponents of the project argue that the development of nuclear energy in Kazakhstan, as one of the world's largest uranium producers, is a logical choice. Although the country has 12% of the world's uranium reserves, most of the uranium is still exported, not used domestically. In addition, despite its abundance of natural resources, Kazakhstan often imports electricity from Russia. James ·Walker, CEO and head of reactor development at NANO Nuclear Energy, believes that generating electricity from nuclear energy Kazakhstan reduce reliance on external energy sources and become more resilient to regional and global energy challenges.
For Kazakhstan, nuclear power issues almost always revolve around "how" rather than "if". In fact, since 1997, when Energy Minister Vladimir · Shukonik proposed the construction of a nuclear power plant, successive national energy strategies have formalized this goal. The real obstacle to the government's previous plans for the development of nuclear power projects was more a lack of funding and unfavourable conditions for the transfer of intellectual property. The real challenge is balancing technical considerations with commercial interests, as well as the geopolitical nuances of supply.
The opposition fears that Russia could impose a civilian nuclear deal that would leave Kazakhstan's energy sector in long-term financial, technological and supply dependence. Russia has used opaque influence in the past to protect its interests in the field of Kazakhstan nuclear weapons, as exemplified by the arrest in 2009 of Mukh·tar Dzhakishev, the former head of the Kazakhstan state nuclear company Kazatomprom. Russia's state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom has been the default partner in Kazakhstan's nuclear program, still controlling most of the country's uranium reserves. However, even if Russia technology is chosen, it does not necessarily lead to dependence. Rosatom's nuclear export program is flexible and diverse, ranging from "build-own-operate" to design-and-manufacture nuclear components only. The degree of dependence depends on the terms of the negotiation of the supply.
But nuclear power development should not be described solely as a financial and geopolitical trap for Russia. In fact, Kazakhstan today has more autonomy than ever before. After all, the countries involved in the project depend on Kazakhstan's uranium resources. With France technology transfer and Chinese investment, Kazakhstan can now produce PWR fuel assemblies suitable for France and Chinese designs. By opting for France or Chinese technology, Kazakhstan could essentially avoid the supply vulnerabilities Europe faces when operating Russian-made VVER reactors.
新闻来源:Carnegie Politika、Bloomberg、Forbes、Astana Times,部分图片来自网络
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