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△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Beijing Express, October 16, the traditional 24 solar terms have arrived. On the national weather stage this week (14th-20th), in the opinion of experts, both cold and warm air are active; In addition, due to the continuous eastward movement of the upper-air trough, three rounds of precipitation will follow from the 14th to the 15th, the 16th to the 18th, and the 19th to the 20th. Among them, the cold air from the 14th to the 15th mainly affected the Northeast; The cold air from the 18th to the 19th will affect most areas north of the Yangtze River; Moreover, on the 20th, due to precipitation and the return of the east wind, the temperature in many places in the central and eastern parts will be low, and a new low after the "beginning of autumn" solar term.
△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that monitoring data showed that from last night (15th) to today (16th), some meteorological observation stations in Yunnan, Hainan, Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Anhui experienced heavy rain and short-term heavy rainfall. During this period, 86.3 mm in Qujing in Yunnan, 82.7 mm in Malong, 69.9 mm in Haikou, 69.9 mm in Haikou, 68.8 mm in Dapu, Guangdong, and 62.2 mm in Xundian, Yunnan, ranking among the top five in the national precipitation list; among them, Qujing broke the local single-day precipitation record in October; and from 17 o'clock to 18 o'clock, there was also a short-term heavy rainfall of 31.2 mm in a single hour. This also indicates that the warm and humid air currents are strong and the rainfall is somewhat similar to that of summer.
△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, according to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, the warm and humid airflow will continue to strengthen northward in the future; Moreover, the hypothetical equivalent potential temperature of 340K (*summer monsoon front) can go north to Jiangsu; At the same time, there was cold air southward on the 18th. Similar to the water vapor in summer, the cold air in autumn and winter; Such a mismatch will result in a rare rainfall and convection intensity at the same time. Therefore, in parts of Guizhou, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong, heavy rain-heavy rain may occur; In addition, it may be accompanied by strong convective weather such as short-term heavy rainfall.
△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
It is worth noting that industry insiders emphasized that it is not difficult to find that it is not difficult to find that as experts say, from the current forecast, after this round of precipitation, from the 19th to the 21st, because of the influence of another cold air moving eastward, the eastern part of the northwest region, the eastern part of the southwest region, Jianghan, Huanghuai, the western and northern parts of Jiangnan, there is also light to moderate rain (snow), locally heavy to heavy rain. In addition, due to the influence of the cold vortex in northern Xinjiang, heavy snow-blizzard may occur in the high-altitude areas of the Tianshan Mountains in the next 2 days, and there may even be heavy snowstorms locally. The current numerical forecast gives that on the morning of the 19th, the local snow cover in the Tianshan Mountains and Altai Mountains in Xinjiang may exceed 20 cm. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
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