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△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Beijing Express, October 16, the traditional 24 solar terms have arrived. On the national weather stage this week (14th-20th), in the opinion of experts, both cold and warm air are active; In addition, due to the continuous eastward movement of the upper-air trough, three rounds of precipitation will follow from the 14th to the 15th, the 16th to the 18th, and the 19th to the 20th. Among them, the cold air from the 14th to the 15th mainly affected the Northeast; The cold air from the 18th to the 19th will affect most areas north of the Yangtze River; Moreover, on the 20th, due to precipitation and the return of the east wind, the temperature in many places in the central and eastern parts will be low, and a new low after the "beginning of autumn" solar term.
△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that according to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, in the next three days, the precipitation on the mainland will increase and intensify; During this period, heavy rainfall will occur from the eastern part of the southwest region to the Huanghuai region; There will also be snowfall in northwestern Xinjiang, eastern Tibet, and central and southern Qinghai. Among them, the rain and snow will expand and intensify tomorrow, and this is the strongest period of rain and snow. Although there are differences between the numerical models of multiple meteorological agencies, the forecasted precipitation areas are still different. But for the Huanghuai area, the intensity is rare in the same period.
△ National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, taking the Beijing area as an example, there will be continuous rain from the 17th to the 18th. However, the timing of the start is less certain; It is expected that from the night of the 16th to the morning of the 17th, there will already be some southerly winds at low altitude to transport water vapor and have the power to lift it; However, the lift height is lower. The numerical model forecast is biased towards rainfall from the afternoon of the 17th, and the water vapor and dynamic conditions deteriorate significantly by the afternoon of the 18th. Therefore, the rain will gradually end after 14 o'clock on the 18th.
△ Regional precipitation extreme index EFI numerical model forecast (European Meteorological Centre EC/Fa)
It is worth noting that industry insiders emphasized that it is not difficult to find that it is not difficult to find that as experts say, from the current forecast, from the evening of the 18th to the morning of the 19th, the dry and cold air made the dew condensation temperature in Beijing plummet from around 14 °C to around minus 14 °C; As a result, there will be a big difference between the temperature and the relative humidity of the air from more than 80% to less than 20%. Beijing on the 19th was sunny and dry; However, from the afternoon to the evening of the 20th, there may still be precipitation in Beijing; And there may be snow in the mountains of the northwest. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
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