Red Star Capital Bureau reported on October 18 that today, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic operation data for the first three quarters. Wang Wei, former director and second-level researcher of the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, Zhang Jianping, vice chairman of the China Society for Social and Economic System Analysis, Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and other experts analyzed some new characteristics and changes behind the data at the economic situation analysis meeting of the third quarter of 2024 by China News Service.
Consumption increment is in innovation
Experts recommend strengthening policy support for employment in the service sector
According to the statistics bureau, in the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 353564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, the retail sales of urban consumer goods 305869 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods were 4,769.5 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent. Rural markets are faster than urban markets.
"Overall, now consumption is stable in the aggregate, the increment is in innovation, and some more important structural adjustments have been realized, which is a change in the consumption situation this year." Wang Wei, former director of the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council and a second-level researcher, said.
In the first three quarters, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment of units above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of automobiles, home appliances, office supplies, household appliances and other products involving the trade-in policy were more obvious in September. In September, retail sales of automobiles increased by 0.4%, which was a positive result in August after several months of decline. Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 20.5% in September, a sharp acceleration of 17.1 percentage points from August. The retail sales of furniture in September also turned from negative to positive.
Wang Wei pointed out that consumption upgrading, especially with the support of the trade-in policy, the sales of household appliances for the old for the new have seen a rapid growth, and the policy effect is more obvious and has begun to appear. She expects the effects to be even more evident after the holiday.
Wang Wei mentioned that since the beginning of this year, some new products, new brands, new consumption scenarios, new service models and new creative consumption have been emerging. For example, the number of first stores introduced in five international consumption center cities this year is also continuing to increase, including international brands and a large number of online brand innovations that have landed in the real economy. Like new energy vehicles, parent-child participation, clothing and apparel, these new brands are relatively many. New demand is accelerating the emergence of new tracks, accelerating the growth of manufacturing, consumer goods and services. "The proportion of new consumption in the overall consumption may not be very high, but this continuous promotion is very noteworthy."
Wang Wei mentioned that there is a lot of innovation in the field of service consumption, which is more associated with the experience and creativity of residents, and the main leading role of service consumption is catering and travel, especially during holidays.
A phenomenon that is more noteworthy is that in the creation of consumption scenes, it is also a consumption content, and the creation of consumption scenes and new scenes, including some new ideas, has a huge impact on the upgrading of traditional consumption.
At the same time, she believes that more attention needs to be paid to the employment of the service industry, especially now that the service industry, including digital, education and technical services, etc., are more pursued by young people, and it is very important to strengthen policy support for employment in the service industry.
"In recent years, China has still had a lot of sustainable policies in cultivating international consumption center cities, building some key business districts, and supporting the development of new business formats. We feel that in the next 5 to 10 years, these will be a relatively big positive to support China's economic growth, especially the growth of consumer demand. ”
Foreign trade has created "two firsts"
Experts believe that their own competitiveness is still the key to stabilizing foreign trade
According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the total import and export of goods 323252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 9.4 percent, accounting for 55.0 percent of the total import and export.
Zhang Jianping, vice chairman of the China Society for Socio-economic System Analysis, believes that China's overall foreign trade situation in the first three quarters exceeded expectations. "The total import and export value in the first three quarters was 32.33 trillion yuan, which is the first time that the scale of trade in goods exceeded 32 trillion yuan in the same period in the history of the mainland's reform and opening up, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, and this data is also better than the GDP growth rate in the third quarter."
Zhang Jianping mentioned that the total import and export volume in the first, second and third quarters is rising, and the total import and export value of foreign trade for three consecutive quarters is above 10 trillion yuan, which is also the first time in history, which fully shows that China is now the world's manufacturing center, the largest manufacturing center, and the added value of the manufacturing industry now accounts for about one-third of the world's total.
The performance of private enterprises in exports is also very impressive. According to customs data, the import and export of private enterprises in the first three quarters reached 17.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, much higher than the growth rate of the entire foreign trade, and the contribution to the overall foreign trade growth also reached 93.8%.
Zhang Jianping believes that the "new three" performance of foreign trade this year is still very good, especially new energy vehicles. Although we are currently facing some trade frictions, we have our own brands and original technologies, as well as the scale effect and agglomeration effect of the industry, which can enable us to win the initiative in the global market with cost performance in the process of global competition.
According to the latest forecast of the WTO, the growth rate of global foreign trade will reach 2.6% this year. Zhang Jianping believes that if the growth rate of foreign trade predicted by the WTO can be achieved as scheduled this year, it also indicates that even in the face of the challenges of anti-globalization and the pressure and challenges from some countries' so-called de-risking, friendly outsourcing, and near-shore outsourcing, China will still be able to rely on a very good manufacturing foundation and large-scale production and export, and continuously improve its competitiveness and make foreign trade grow steadily.
"We can't go back in the current conditions." Zhang Jianping stressed that from this point of view, China also firmly supports the multilateral trading system, WTO rules, supports WTO reform, and also accelerates the implementation of the free trade zone promotion strategy, in this process its own trade and investment liberalization and facilitation continue to improve, and then rely on the advantages of China's whole industrial system, relying on scale and brand building, and finally be able to control the cost performance to the best and optimal. In this way, even in the face of complex and volatile international markets and uncertainties, China can rely on its own competitiveness and make new contributions to stabilizing foreign trade and growth.
The growth rate of investment in high-tech manufacturing is obvious
Experts list effective investment directions
In terms of promoting the transformation of old and new kinetic energy and the steady development of new quality productivity, Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, summarized three key words, namely: "climbing high", "moving towards the new" and "transforming to green".
"Climbing to the top" refers to higher added value and higher quality. According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the added value of high-tech manufacturing in the first three quarters increased by 9.1 percent, 1.7 and 3.3 percentage points faster than that of all industries above designated size, respectively. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.0 percent year-on-year. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, the investment in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, and electronic and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 34.1 percent and 10.3 percent respectively;
Guo Liyan pointed out that like the typical fields of new quality productivity, commercial aerospace and aerospace, whether it is the growth rate of investment, the growth rate of production and sales revenue, including the profits of enterprises above the scale from January to August, the profits of aerospace-related enterprises have improved very significantly. Relevant provinces and cities are also providing supporting upstream and downstream industrial chains for the development of the entire aerospace industry according to local conditions, and will provide special launch stations for the launch of private rockets and commercial aerospace within this year.
"At the same time, there are also many vivid cases in various places such as low-altitude economy and biomanufacturing. It should be said that not only high-tech manufacturing, but also investment in high-tech service industries and information technology service industries have remained in a high prosperity range since the beginning of this year, and the support of high-tech service industries for the development of high-tech industries is accelerating the generation of new quality productive forces. ”
"Moving towards the new" focuses on trade-in. In September, the growth rate of household appliances and audio-visual equipment of units above the designated size exceeded 20%, and the matching automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings are the current large-scale consumer goods trade-in key subsidy support direction, Guo Liyan believes that this also shows that the effect of measures such as "two new" is being accelerated.
In terms of "green transformation", Guo Liyan pointed out that the current development of green and low-carbon related high-tech fields, and the service industry related to new energy and energy-saving products and technologies have maintained a high growth rate in terms of investment and revenue.
"The structural adjustment, optimization and upgrading, and qualitative improvement of our domestic demand are a characteristic of the current economic operation. Of course, there is also insufficient effective demand in China's economy, and there is still potential that needs to be further stimulated. Guo Liyan believes that there are quite a few measures in the package of incremental policies aimed at promoting effective investment.
"The direction of effective investment support, as well as focusing on people's livelihood, such as the transformation of old communities, municipal pipe network renovation and other fields, especially in the process of accelerating the promotion of new urbanization, there is still a lot of potential space for investment in the accelerated release, so in the process of investment issuance, we should pay more attention to promoting and supporting the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, people's livelihood and well-being, new urbanization and other aspects."
The decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing narrowed
Experts stressed the need to strengthen the reform of the market-oriented system
According to the Bureau of Statistics, real estate development investment fell by 10.1% in the first three quarters. The sales area of newly built commercial buildings nationwide was 702.84 million square meters, down 17.1% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 1.9 and 0.9 percentage points narrower than that in the first half of the year and from January to August, respectively.
Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the adjustment of the real estate market in the past three years has been a fluctuating downward adjustment.
Ni Pengfei believes that the property market has some conditions for the macro economy to stop falling and stabilize, and the next key is to speed up the reform of the system to make the macroeconomic improvement sustainable.
"I want to emphasize a point of view, the macro economy is not real estate itself, real estate is only a part of the macro economy, real estate and the macro economy there is a dual cycle relationship, the logical starting point of the double cycle is not real estate, is the macro economy, only the macro economy to maintain sustained growth, it may lead to an increase in housing demand, can lead to an increase in housing supply, can lead to real estate to make an important contribution to the macro economy."
Ni Pengfei believes that there is a particularly important factor that affects income and expectations, and affects the development of economic enterprises, that is, the reform of the market-oriented system, especially the protection of property rights and the business environment, which leads to the sustainable development of real enterprises, "only by doing this can we ensure the growth of income and employment, so I think the next step is to make the macro economy can support or promote the stabilization of the property market, or to speed up the reform of the market-oriented orientation." ”
He said that the recent package of real estate policies is theoretically enough to achieve the release of potential and expected changes, but the implementation of policies is the next top priority, and how to ensure that these policies are implemented as soon as possible is very critical.
Red Star News reporter Wang Tian
Edited by Xiao Shiqing
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