Since the beginning of the year, the pig market has been in a downturn, mainly due to the rapid recovery of production capacity, pork production from January to June was 27.15 million tons, coupled with imported frozen pork, which has exceeded the normal demand of previous years, which also indicates that the market has overcapacity.
However, while the production capacity is restored, the demand for pork consumption is not too high, although the price of pork has declined, but many people have developed unique consumption habits, pork consumption demand is only 80% of the past, so that pig prices are naturally difficult to rebound.
In June, the pig price bottomed out at a new low of 12.72 yuan / kg, but soon the pig price ushered in a big rise, rebounding to 17.41 yuan / kg, but after this pig price once again entered a long period of downturn. And now, although it has entered the summer season, consumer demand has ushered in a wave of rise, but due to the early price of the sale, the number of large pigs has increased, especially in the northern region, the number of cattle and pigs is large, so that the price of pigs has not risen, is the next price increase far away?
From today's pig price point of view, the average price of live pigs is 14.43 yuan / kg, compared with the previous day is down 0.11 yuan, down 61.6% year-on-year, and this price has also fallen to the lowest point since July, but also "3 consecutive falls", for pig farmers, today's feed costs rose sharply, breeding costs reached about 8.5 yuan, a pig loss of four or five hundred yuan.
From the monitoring data, the northeast region fell by 0.2-0.3 yuan, the mainstream price was 13.4-13.5 yuan / kg, of which Jiji and Liao fell by 0.2 yuan each; the north China market was stable and fell, the market was 13.4-14.3 yuan / kg, of which Inner Mongolia fell 0.2 yuan, Shanxi fell 0.35 yuan, fell below the 7 yuan mark. In the northwest region, the market is stable, the mainstream price is 12.4-14.2 yuan / kg, and Shaanxi fell by 0.2 yuan. Overall, the price of pigs in many parts of the north has fallen to the 6 yuan mark, and the losses of pig farmers have further increased.
East China fell by 0.1-0.3 yuan, the market was 14.4-15.6 yuan / kg, of which Zhejiang fell 0.3 yuan, Shanghai Shandong fell 0.2 yuan; Central China fell 0.1-0.2 yuan, the mainstream price was 14.2-14.8 yuan / kg, of which Henan fell 0.2 yuan; the southwest fell 0.05-0.2 yuan, the mainstream price was 13.3-14.5 yuan / kg, Sichuan fell 0.2 yuan; South China was generally stable, the mainstream price was 15.4-18.8 yuan / kg.
At present, the north has gradually fallen to the 6 yuan era, while the south except for Hainan, the others are in the 7 yuan mark, it can be seen that the pig price decline is more obvious, the market continues to bottom out, and the loss of pigs has increased. As for why pig prices have fallen deeply, it is also due to the increase in the willingness of pig farmers to go out of the pen, and the procurement of slaughtering enterprises is stable. According to the feedback of some pig farmers, pig diseases have increased again in many places in the folk, and this is the case in the author's hometown, where there are many deaths of large pigs, and pig farmers panic selling, which is also the main reason for the recent decline in pig prices.
Since March, pig farmers have been looking forward to a wave of pig prices, but did not want pig prices to fall to today, which makes pig farmers feel sad, many people are even broken cans, the sows in their hands are eliminated, and the piglets are sold at a low price.
At the end of June, the sow inventory recovered to 102% at the end of 2017, but the July inventory fell by 0.5% month-on-month, which shows that the sow elimination rate has increased, many pig farmers have chosen to eliminate inefficient sows, and some people have completely bid farewell to the pig industry.
Today's piglet price has fallen to about 200 yuan, this price to sell, pig breeders also have to lose money, it is reasonable to say that the price of piglets is low, even if the cost of purchasing breeding is only about 7.5 yuan, by the end of the year should be able to sell a good price, but there are still not many people to bottom out.
In everyone's view, there is no room for growth in the second half of the year, even if the piglet falls from 1500 yuan to 200 yuan, everyone still dare not breed, after all, the cost of feed is high, veterinary drugs, epidemic prevention costs are increasing, it is expected that the amount of output will return to normal levels after the end of the year, so everyone is afraid that the pig price will fall to about 6 yuan, that busy half a year can be in vain.
However, July-August is the traditional consumption off-season, the decline in market consumer demand is nothing, and September will usher in the traditional peak season, coupled with students attending classes, agricultural busy start, Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling, pig prices can not rebound? The industry said that there are 3 good news next.
Now that the three-volt day has moved away, the temperature has begun to fall, and the temperature will continue to be low in September, affected by the "sticking autumn fat", the demand for pork at the terminal is expected to rise. And students attend classes, will also lead to an increase in consumer demand, coupled with the approaching of the double festival, the market's demand for stockpiling will increase, will inevitably increase consumer demand.
The sow elimination rate accelerated significantly in July, and the rebound of pig disease in some areas in August once again accelerated the selling speed of pig farmers, which also meant that the next pig production capacity was reduced. At the same time, pig farmers have also accelerated the elimination of cattle and pigs, and sold them in time, when the supply of standard pigs is tight, it will naturally lead to a stable rebound in pig prices.
In July, 350,000 tons of pork were imported, down 18.6% year-on-year, which shows that pork imports have gradually decreased, which indicates that the impact of imported meat on the fresh meat market has decreased, and there is not much resistance to the rise in fresh pork prices.
In general, the next pig price can still be optimistic, although it can not rise sharply, but it is expected to rise to 9-10 yuan / catty, so that pig farmers turn losses into profits, everyone is happy. But then, pig farmers still have to control costs and reduce losses, so that they can get out of the downturn.