(Image from social media)
Over the weekend, overnight, dozens of road signs erected on the road side of the southeastern Kent border in England were all painted from "Welcome to England Gardens Kent" to "England Toilets". After police announced an investigation, an anti-Brexit protesters group claimed responsibility.
As the UK draws to an end to its Brexit transition by the end of this year, there are fears that customs checks at the border from 1 January next year will cause huge disruption if the UK leaves the EU's trade and customs territories without a trade deal with the EU. When the port of Dover conducted border control tests last week, cars lined up for five miles on the road connecting the ferries to France and the Eurotunnel train, with disgruntled people even hanging bags containing excrement on roadside branches.
The EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, was forced into quarantine after members of the negotiating team tested positive for COVID-19, and was not allowed to leave for London until the evening of November 27, when face-to-face negotiations resumed on the 28th.
This latest round of dialogue between the UK and the EU is considered likely to be the last negotiation. EU leaders are scheduled for a summit on December 10 and a special session of the European Parliament on 28 December to vote on a negotiated agreement, but if the two sides cannot reach an agreement on Wednesday, it will be difficult to complete the review and paperwork by the end of this year.
On 30 November, Josh Hardie, deputy director general of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), representing some 190,000 manufacturing companies, urged politicians to bridge the divide, saying that the COVID-19 pandemic had deprived businesses of the flexibility to survive, that the prospect of a Brexit transition period had been tarnished and that the business community was now in dire need of the stability provided by a Brexit deal.
As the negotiating parties want to force the other side to make concessions beyond their actual ability or willingness, the Brexit negotiations have been stuck on a few issues for a year and have been deadlocked.
British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on the 29th that the negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union have now entered the final week, and people hope that a breakthrough can be made by friday. But the Prime Minister's Office warned that Britain's chances of leaving the EU without a deal were "underestimated".
The negotiations remain entangled in two disagreements that existed at the outset: the level of access of European fishing fleets in British waters, which involves only a fishing business with a total annual revenue of more than 600 million euros, but is a focus of mutual disagreement; and the fair competition clause, which the EU wants to ensure that neither side can lower its standards or over-subsidize to give its companies an advantage in the market competition.
On the issue of fisheries access, Barnier offered the latest concession that the EU could accept to cut its share of fishing rights in UK waters by 15%-18% from current levels, equivalent to 120 million euros in revenue, but British officials immediately rejected the proposal, calling the so-called concession "ridiculous" and the EU side should be fully aware that the British side will never accept this figure.
As for the second question, in the tug-of-war between the two sides, the UK has agreed not to turn its back on the EU's environmental, social and labour standards at the end of the transition period, but the EU wants more and hopes that in the future, as Brussels gradually raises the relevant standards, the UK can continue to follow.
But the British don't want to be bound by the rules of Brussels after Brexit. The British negotiating team has repeatedly stressed that it will not "sell" British sovereignty to reach a deal, demanding that the EU side must adopt a new thinking.
And France's Minister for European Affairs and President Macron's close ally Clément Beaune called out to his compatriot Barnier, saying that the EU side must remain firm and "must not be intimidated by [the British]", and that the negotiations, despite their difficulties, must bear in mind that "there are more British than we need".
However, the expectation of European Commission President von der Leyen for Barnier was to try to mediate a deal, and von der Leyen sent one of her senior officials, Stephanie Riso, to help Barnier break the deadlock.
British negotiator Lord Frost said he believed there was still a chance to reach an agreement despite the lateness and he vowed to continue the dialogue until it was clear that the two sides could not reach an agreement, which presupposed that the EU "must fully respect British sovereignty".
The Johnson administration has once again stressed that if the EU does not budge, the UK is prepared to end the Brexit transition period without a deal.
In this protracted and little-advancing negotiation, the British government's position has become increasingly tough, but the British business community is not in tune with the government.
Hardy complained that the arrival of the Brexit transition deadline has caused the business community more damage beyond the blow of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a reduction in corporate cash reserves. The threat of supply chain disruptions from day one next year hangs over all cross-border sales companies, regardless of size.
Automakers, including Volkswagen and Honda, are now busy stockpiling auto parts stockpiles and trying to move some more cars and parts during the deadline before the end of the Brexit transition period to ensure that companies don't take a sudden tariff hit if britain and the EU fail to reach a trade deal.
Trade between the UK and the EU will be subject to the new trade rules from 1 January next year, and it is not optimistic to say that if tariffs are finally imposed under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, the price of cars imported in the UK will immediately rise by 10%.
The British Association of Motor Manufacturers and Traders notes that 60% of member companies are spending a lot of money hoarding inventory, and more than 50% of member companies hire customs agents to prepare new customs clearance paperwork.
The association expects the UK car industry alone to spend more than £235 million on Brexit preparations in 2020. However, this fee pales in comparison to the imposition of tariffs.
The tariffs would immediately add £1,900/the average cost of imported cars, so some car dealerships are also busy importing more car stocks from Europe by the deadline.
Michael Woodward, head of the UK automotive sector at consultancy Deloitte, pointed out that the challenge for companies is to predict what is the right inventory, and that mistakes in inventory reserves can be costly, while the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior and the impact on car sales has made it increasingly difficult to predict short-term market demand.
The outlook is also worrying for London's financial sector, which is suffering a huge blow from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Paris-based EU regulatory securities and markets regulator has made it clear that after the UK's complete Departure, European banks operating in the UK will continue to be regulated by EU regulations when operating financial derivatives businesses. This would directly threaten the City of London's financial derivatives business, which is worth €50 trillion a year.
Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said last week that without a trade deal with the EU, the UK economy would first suffer a direct 2 per cent blow, GDP losses would persist and the government would need an additional £10 billion to borrow to cover the hole. Obr said the pain of Brexit will hit different sectors of the British economy hard, roughly equivalent to the losses caused by the new crown pandemic in the long run.
After Brexit, how will ordinary people vote with their feet? The UK Home Office's recent figures were somewhat unexpected.
EU citizens living in the UK are required to apply for the right to continue living and working in the UK by 30 June next year.
Official demographics for June 2019 show that 3.4 million EU, EEA and Swiss citizens live in the UK.
Interestingly, the latest statistics released by the Home Office show that as of October 31 this year, the total number of applications received from EU citizens to stay in the UK was 4.26 million, which was nearly 1 million more than originally expected.
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