Tiger @ Chief (4:00 Beijing time on Monday)
At the beginning of the new year, the two sides fought for four hours in Cincinnati, in a fairy offensive battle, the Chiefs pulled the point difference countless times, the Tigers could quickly recover with only one move, and finally won the game - Jamal Chase was received 11 times in 12 passes, and the single game of team history and rookie history of the league was 266 yards! Three touchdowns! Chase blasted down 6.05 yards per gear! The quarterback rating that passed to him was 158.3 out of 158! Five times five-five open catches to compete for four of the goals. The Tigers relied on this victory to lock in the North and pull the chief from the top spot in the League.
Let's take a look at the Chieftain offense vs Tigers defense, tigers main strong guard von Bell has 42.8% of the time in the box this season, the team has 27.6% of the time to use people to stare at people, defensive coordinator Anarumo prefers to use single/double high, stare/area mixed, with a richer defense mode to confuse the opponent's offense, but the opposite Andy Reed and Mahomes are grandmasters who observe defensive changes in tactics, and even the American League Division Cyrud deliberately forced to use different modes. Sneak attacks from different directions on the road to tease Bill's defense. The Chiefs' regular season road cover win rate and PFF score were third and fourth in the league, respectively, and the Chiefs' road EPA reached +0.327 in the 17th week of the two-week showdown, plus Edwards Hilaire, who is good at the first time, and Jereik McKinnon, who receives the ball, is afraid that the road sneak attack alone will make the Tigers overwhelmed.
The Best Thing the Tigers did in week 17 was to limit Cheetah Hill, and Chitob Awuzi, who was selected for the second team of the PFF League, used a long-range strategy to prevent Hill from carrying out vertical bombardment, and the short pass could be quickly picked up, and before half-time, von Bell also completed a key long pass to Hill to destroy the pass. The Tigers also used stalking to deal with Kelsey in a way that made it difficult for him to get rid of, even if it was foul. Even though the Tigers pressed Hill and Kelsey at the same time, but pressed the gourd and scooped up, Byron Pringle, DeMarcus Robinson and Mikol Hardman all had long-passing performances that broke out at the right time, and I don't think the American League Final Tigers can hold the two at the same time again, and even then the Chiefs don't care.
Mahoms' recent state of heat only need to see two playoff games are clear, the 17th week of the Tiger Mahomes pass EPA also has +0.34, a variety of piercing defense bombardment is not to mention, his game form is to hold the ball for a long time to find the best target, easy to say, but this is based on the historical level of evasion and the ability to run out of the pocket can continue to observe the ball, two playoff games he has deliberately avoided dangerous passes, which makes his playoffs so far without a single potential miss pass, It is also impossible for the Tigers to try to replicate the three interceptions of the divisional game to reverse the decline.
The Tigers themselves have a midstream-level road cover win rate and PFF rating, as well as professional bowl running back Joe Mixon, but in the 17th week of the showdown, the Chiefs used a lot of security guard-supported single-high defense (although it led to losing a lot of long passes) to deal with the Tigers' rush, and star defensive interceptor Chris Jones had multiple key defensive tackles, making the Tigers rush EPA only -0.228, whether the third gear lost a long pass or not, the Chieftain defense well prevented the Tigers from creating an easy three-gear conversion opportunity.
In addition to Chase's nuclear explosion in the 17th week of the showdown, in fact, Ty Higgins, CJ Yuzoma and Taylor Boyd also had timely help, the Chief's limited cornerback resources are staring at people, there are many holes in the regional defense, the division chiefs did go all out to pinch Steven Diggers, but also sent Gabriel Davis to the altar, the same story will definitely happen in the American League finals, the huge advantage of the receiving team is the only part of the Tigers can wrench their wrists with the Chiefs.
However, the Tigers attack the front line weakly, not like some teams have one or two weak rings will be attacked by the opponent focus, but each point is very weak, PFF analysis articles think that their right guard and right interceptor are bad, but I think the five points on the front line are weak and may be focused on the opponent, and the Chieftain's multiple rushing pass indicators are in the middle of the league, although the last two playoffs The Chiefs' rush passing data is difficult to see, but this is related to the unique playing style of Big Ben and Josh Allen, in the 17th week of that showdown chief made 35.6% The pressure rate will be uncomfortable for a typical pocket quarterback like Joe Burrow.
When the tiger's pass protection problems were exposed at the end of the season, Boro showed great psychological maturity, especially in the last two playoff games, when the opponent rushed to give Boro enough time to observe, Boro would solve it with fast passes and short passes. Burrow is a natural key gentleman, this season Burrow in a large range of points within a large range of PFF pass ratings 85.8 league third, fourth quarter and overtime PFF pass score of 82.4 league fourth, winning the National Championship, born big heart also let Burrow not be afraid of the first American League final of his career.
Week 17 was a special game that made the game play until the last second, and the actual scene chief dominated the game with a crushing advantage, and Chase "Heavenly Gods" could not repeat it again and again. In terms of game experience, the vast majority of the Chiefs will have played the American League Finals for the fourth consecutive year, regarding it as a regular season, while the Tigers, except for the saints' veteran Hendrickson and von Bell, who have played in the National League Finals for 18 years, the other players do not have any experience in such high-level games, and are likely to be overwhelmed by the huge noise in front of the Arrow. In my opinion, although the game has reached the final four, this battle may be the biggest difference in the playoffs this year.
Win-loss prediction: The Chiefs won more than two touchdowns
49 people @ Rams (Monday 7:30)
The nine-man battle against the Rams is the second time since 2013 that the Grand Final of the National League of Nations has been achieved.
The previous two regular season division wars: the first nine of the 10th week only had 3 wins and 5 losses, and under extremely unfavorable circumstances, the nine won 31-10 against the Rams on Monday night, reversing the decline of the season. And in the final week of the regular season, when the Saints beat the Falcons without suspense, the nine had to take the Rams away from home to qualify, at this time the Rams led 17-0 in the second quarter, Sean McVeigh excitedly rushed into the end zone to celebrate with the players, but at this moment, the nine tenaciously broke out of the small universe not only to erase the point difference, but also hit the free kick in overtime and lock the playoff place with a copy. The nine-man double kill, whoever wins one less game, simply cannot enter the playoffs, and it can also be said that the Rams "took the initiative" to choose the opponent of the National League final.
Speaking of the offensive and defensive duels, the two games of the nine-man road total of 291 yards and 2 touchdowns seem to be good, but the road EPA and positive score rate are not qualified, Shanahan Jr. has a clear idea, with a large number of road attacks to create easy three-stop passing opportunities, even if the efficiency is not high, it is better than letting Garropolo pass the ball. In addition, the two games in the regular season nine people have 23 minutes and 26 seconds more possession time than the Rams, limiting the appearance time of the Rams offensive group, which is largely related to the use of 75 road attacks in the two games.
In fact, the nine-man revolution began with a game against the Rams in the tenth week, with Dibo Samuel playing a new role of "half-runback and half-receiver", seamlessly connecting the nine-man's passing and rushing, plus a running back Elija Mitchell who is good at counter-shearing, an all-back Yuszczek who can open the way and receive short passes like a near-end, a near-end forward George Kittel who can open the way but also has a vertical attack, and a bunch of "rare animals" enrich the nine-man's offensive routines. More routine offense also reduced the use of Gallopolo's direct retreat pass.
Rams season anti-run EPA-0.116 (sixth), The second half of the season EPA-0.189 (second), and is a large number of kick-off before the double high form of the completion, because Gallo pollo's last two playoffs are very general, I can imagine that the nine people in the National League final will continue to unswervingly hit the road, but when I see the divisional match against the Packers are not strong defensive run, poor thoughts to twice with Trent Williams motion after the outside open road, but the effect is still very bad, and compared to the Rams League's first-class defensive strength, I think the nine will usher in a low-efficiency road performance, it is difficult to create an easy three-stop conversion opportunity.
In the start line showdown, the Rams have the first in the league with the rush pass win rate and the PFF rush pass score, the nine-man pass protection indicator is the middle and upper reaches, the two regular season duels the Rams created a pressure rate of 35% and 28% respectively, although the data is average, they know how to focus on the weak ring attack, compared to the league's first left interceptor Trent Williams, right interceptor Tom Compton released the most 4 times of pressure on the team when he was a packer, von Miller has a chance to abuse the dish will not be missed?
And the match on the catch end, the Rams pressed Ayyuk in the tenth week, but Dibo and Kitter broke out; the 18th week limited Kittel, and out of nowhere came a Javoen Jennings. Although the Rams have the top singles such as Jaylen Ramsey, Darius Williams and David Lang's personal ability is not bad, but the Rams security guard is facing the main injury, and the nine-man receiver group is too resourceful, and the complex running position coordination and smart quick turn, coupled with the Gallobolo fast gunners, but rarely long passes of the attack style, the Rams' double high area defense is indeed impossible to start, and even the 18th week by Dibo passed a touchdown.
Gallopolo has been great against the Rams in the regular season (passing EPA 0.707 and 0.138), but the last two playoff games have been in poor shape (0.057 and -0.330), so what version of the big pineapple will we get in the National League Finals? While the two sets of stats are very different, the only thing these four games have in common, and one that I have repeatedly mentioned in the Playoff Divisional Replay, is that Gallopolo is a quarterback who is completely unable to play outside of the established tactics, and luck does not help in the playoffs, so he throws two interceptions, and I think That Gallopolo's personal ability limits the ceiling of nine people, especially when facing three long yards, it is unrealistic to expect him to solve problems in a row.
Look at the Rams offense vs. nine-man defense. The Nines have invested too much of their strength and attention in the past two playoff games, so the efficiency of the defense can only be said to be so-so; and the Rams' two playoff games have completely failed to play the road efficiency of the end of the regular season, and the injured Cam-Ex divisional two drops almost let the Rams out, but considering that the Rams have the fifth highest initial pass rate in the regular season league 57.1%, once the efficiency is not good, McVeigh will reduce the initial rush and punish the nine with false running real passes.
In the two playoff games, the nine-man cowboy with the second-highest PFF protection score and the seventh-placed packer brushed a total of 43.0% of the terror pressure rate, although the nine-man tight guard helped the rushing pass, but the rushing passers such as Bosa Jr., Armsted and Omenihu were in excellent condition, even if the forty-year-old interceptor Whitworth returned from injury and the Rams' five front-line PFF scores were in the top 20 of their respective positions, facing the red-hot nine-man rush, I am afraid it is difficult to protect Stafford a clean pocket. That's one of the few reasons I think the Nine were able to hold off the Rams offense.
The Receivers Rams have top weapons like Cooper Karp, Bey Andre and Higby, while the nine-man defensive backcourt's most famous player is jimmy Ward, and it looks like the Rams have a great advantage, but aren't the Cowboys and Packers' receivers in the last two playoff games strong? The nine-man defensive group uses very few people to stare at people to cover up the disadvantage of talent, a large number of soft area defenses allow the opposing receiver to easily enter the backcourt, the core of the defensive group with a very good overall view, Fred Warner, can chase the receiver like a security guard, the team's tight coordination, adaptation route, rotation position make the quarterback unable to shoot, and then use the rushing pass to intercept the offense, this move is invincible in the second half of the season and playoffs. But I still think the Rams offense has some slight advantages, why?
Contrary to the big pineapple, the regular season Stafford made a series of mistakes, and nine people in the two games also angrily sent four interceptions. But at the end of the season, Stafford's state warmed up, entering the playoffs of the two games of passing EPA +0.516 and +0.436, only two potential missteps of the pass, no interception, Stafford's hot state is staggering, especially in the middle and long range attacks, the last four Stafford long passes 13 passes 8, mid-range 20 passes 15, the nearly astronomical hit rate shows the stafford and offensive weapons of the cooperation proficiency, Cap from the slot after the vertical route, there are also a variety of inside and outside twists, post and corner The little bay can attack in a straight line from the flank or turn inside; Sigbi can physically defeat the single-defense attack seam area of various line guards and security guards, and the use of rich and diversified offensive weapons is probably difficult to overcome in the nine-man area defense.
In addition, McVeigh's attacking focus against different opponents is very different, with the Nineers desperately attacking the two winged cornerbacks and the weak rings that the security guards can't take care of in the 18th week, while in the two playoff games facing the Cardinals and Pirates who value raids, the Rams constantly attack the middle of the court with fake running passes. Compared with the two attacking masters in the National League final, Shanahan Jr.'s strength is to play all his strengths and routines to defeat the opponent, then McVeigh is better at finding the opponent's weakness and making key attacks. I am afraid that McVeigh will still look for weaknesses in the nine-man defense based on what has been presented in the past playoffs.
In case the Nine killed the Rams three times in a single season to dominate the League, it was also a gift from apprentice McVeigh to Master Shanahan Jr. throughout the season. Of course, the Rams can't imagine that as the fourth seed of the National League, if they reach the Super Bowl, then there will be three home advantages in the four playoffs. That's right, while it's the lightning's turn to host the Super Bowl this year, the lightning and the Rams share soFi stadiums, and the Rams have a chance to replicate the pirates' huge advantages in fighting at home.
Before the wild card battle and the Cardinals, I saw some fans say why the Rams schedule is so "devilish", but in fact, in the face of the recognized strength of the powerful Cardinals and pirates, the Rams are unreasonable to step over the opponent, the game presents a one-sided crushing game, I think it is the Rams, these experienced veterans are still focused on the regular season, but when the playoffs erupt in full combat, the Real Combat Strength of the Rams is like their paper strength to destroy the strong enemy with the momentum of destruction and decay. On the other hand, the nine people, against the packers in the first half of the game before the snow has shown a lack of staying power, not to mention after the snow, and the past two games Fred Warner, Little Bossa, Silverback and Dibo have experienced injuries in the game, and the nine people have somewhat exhausted their essence after defeating strong opponents in consecutive games. At the end of the crossbow, ya can not wear lu, in the face of the morale of the ram, it seems that there is not much possibility of really achieving three kills in a single season.
Win-loss prediction: The Rams have a small win with a touch-up advantage