Jiwei Network News Looking back at this week, the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has spread to many industries around the world. After Apple officially announced that it would stop selling products in Russia, the smartphone market was also affected to a certain extent. This is also another "black swan" event in the market after the new crown epidemic.
The changes in the terminal industry are also closely related to the parts and components; the current display panel technology change is at the crossroads of industry development, LCD, OLED, MiniLED and other technologies are fiercely competing and competing in their respective tracks and product areas. Next, where will the development of the display panel industry go?
Different from the consumer electronics market that continues to be "low air pressure", the new energy vehicle market with high heat is still highly concerned by the industry, especially under the core appeal of the efficiency of new energy vehicles to extend the endurance and enhance the energy replenishment link, GaN power devices are also expected to usher in the inflection point of market application.
How far is the popularity of automotive GaN devices?
According to Yole's projections, the total market opportunity for gallium nitride chips in electric vehicles will exceed $2.5 billion/year in 2025. Although there is great potential in the automotive market, automotive GaN power devices are still plagued by reliability, product model, production mode, and design process. These are the hurdles that GaN devices have to cross when they break through in the automotive market.
In terms of reliability, Zha Yingjie, vice president and general manager of Nanomicro Semiconductor in China, emphasized: "The testing of GaN devices is very important, because gallium nitride, as a safety device, is the most important thing in reliability. We have accumulated a lot of reliability data over the past few years, and this piece has our patents protecting some of our tested methods. Our process development risks are self-defined, ensuring that we differ from other vendors on a common platform. ”
In addition, in the field of small adapters, GaN mainly exists in the mode of chips, but in medium and high power, such as electric vehicles, charging piles, etc. in medium and high power applications, GaN should be transformed from chips to modules. In the design of the module, a lot of energy consumption comes from the energy consumption of the package, which is critical to the reliability, stability and cost of the module.
This paradigm shift has also changed the production model of GaN.
Industry insiders pointed out that "from the perspective of the chip itself, most manufacturers are using a fabless working mode." We do the design, hand it over to the foundry for tape-out and lithography, etc., and then do the packaging, we will put some of the most core technologies, including the process, chip design and application parts, in our own hands, this is the traditional fabless-level model. But to do high-power products, especially in the face of China's future development, we have taken a very open approach, including through joint ventures, some strategic cooperation, and in the production of modules, we will also carry out some exploration. ”
In addition to the application mode, production and other levels, the current main products of gallium nitride are 650V devices, measured will be much higher than 650V, and now the current application scenarios are in the 650V file. The main advantage of silicon carbide is the ultra-high voltage scene, in the high-speed rail, in the car in the ultra-high voltage part of the components are the main market of silicon carbide.
In this regard, industry insiders pointed out that "the two have a clear definition of the application field, and at present, 1200V is a hurdle." The process of gallium nitride needs to be continuously improved, and the voltage must be raised. ”
Zhu Hangou, senior analyst of Jiwei Consulting, said: "In the automotive specification power device market, many domestic companies have launched corresponding products and have begun to verify on the car, but due to the long verification cycle, it is expected that domestic enterprises will begin to have practical applications in the second half of 2022. In general, the number of enterprises continues to increase, the production line accelerates construction, the supply chain begins to gradually take shape, and the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain is enhanced. ”
A number of mobile phone manufacturers lowered their sales forecasts
How prosperous the development of the new energy automobile industry is, how sluggish the smartphone market is. The four words "one after another" are undoubtedly the true portrayal of the contrast between the two.
In early February this year, the consulting agency TrendForce announced the situation of the global mobile phone market in 2022 before the war between Russia and Ukraine began, estimating that the production of smartphones in 2022 will be about 1.39 billion units. However, only half a month later, the situation has changed dramatically.
As the industry knows, not long ago Apple issued a statement to stop selling related products in Russia. Not only that, a first-line brand supplier told Jiwei Network when talking about the order demand of end customers in the first half of the year: "From the current situation, the entire mobile phone market in the first half of this year is very weak; especially after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we have seen that all customers' forecasts have been adjusted." ”
Another analyst also pointed out to Jiwei Network: "The sales forecast of this year's mobile phone market will be lowered, but the situation in Europe is complex and changeable, so now everyone has not yet bottomed out, and I don't know how much is appropriate." It is certain that the demand will not be good, but it is difficult to say how bad it will be, mainly depending on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the degree to which the sanctions imposed on Russia by several countries will develop. ”
In response to Apple's statement, the analyst added: "Due to the setback in Huawei's consumer business, Apple's share of the Russian mobile phone market should be able to rank in the top three, but it is only 3 or 4 million, so it can be judged that the overall demand will not be too large." Even the demand for mobile phones in the Markets of Russia and Ukraine is estimated to be between 40 and 45 million units a year. In 2022, even if the shipment volume of the global mobile phone market declines as a result, the overall impact range is expected to be around 3%. ”
Although the Russian domestic market may have a greater impact, the industrial chain and analysts interviewed by Jiwei Network agree that if the conflict can be ended in a short period of time, the impact on the mobile phone market is very limited; if the conflict situation continues to ferment and deteriorate, the ensuing exchange rate and inflation problems will have a greater impact on the global economy and the entire mobile phone industry chain.
International research institute Strategy Analytics also mentioned in the report that in the worst case, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will trigger a global energy crisis and a global recession. Global smartphone manufacturing and supply chains will also be disrupted on a massive scale. By 2022, the global smartphone market will shrink significantly, affecting suppliers in all regions of the world.
Multi-technology coexistence of the display panel industry
Although the demand on the market side is unpredictable, it does not hinder the development and upgrading of products and technology. Some insiders told Jiwei Network, "In the next 10 years, the display industry will have a situation where multiple technologies coexist." ”
First of all, in the field of large-size TV panels, although the supply and demand situation in the industry has reversed, the "price increase tide" of LCD TV panels that has lasted for about a year has ended, but domestic panel manufacturers may continue to expand their production capacity.
Dong Min, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Video Industry Association, told Aijiwei, "In July 2021, the inventory of terminal manufacturers was very high, and some head brands almost reached a record high. Due to the prediction that the LCD TV panel will fall in price, the head brand has also carried out inventory cleanup. However, the National Day and double 11 stockpiling, resulting in the current library is still at a high level. However, with the recovery of end market demand, panel prices may stabilize and rise after the second quarter of this year. ”
Similar to the price trend of LCD TV panels, the epidemic has pushed up the economic demand for home, and the price of OLED panels for large-size TVs rose for the first time in 3 years since Q2 2021, but Q3 turned down again (down about 3%), and the Q4 decline expanded to 5%, and the price has fallen by 20% in the past two years.
In terms of the popular Mini LED TV, with the entry of large manufacturers, the industry has high expectations for the Mini LED TV market in 2021. However, due to the high cost of the Mini LED backlight module, the cost of the Mini LED TV has increased, resulting in the higher price of the Mini LED TV being snubbed by the market, and the sales volume is not as good as expected.
However, with the decline in the cost of Mini LED, the competitiveness of the product is also expected to strengthen. Dong Min said that the current upstream and downstream manufacturers in the industry to the Mini LED field to invest a lot of resources, this year and next year Mini LED will become the mainstream of new technology for TV products, Mini LED TV fierce market competition will continue for about three years.
In the field of small and medium-sized size, with the change of technology and the transformation of market demand, domestic panel manufacturers have also accelerated the strategic layout of medium size, for example, TCL Huaxing has shifted part of the production capacity of the T3 production line to medium-sized product development, and plans to expand a monthly processing of 45,000 glass panels of the 6th generation LTPS LCD display panel production line (t5) and oxide semiconductor display production line (t9), the production of vehicles, laptops, flat panels, VR display panels and other small and medium-sized high-end display products.
In terms of screen technology, the OLED market has gradually expanded and the penetration rate has increased. OLED products shipped about 160,000 units in the third quarter, and the penetration rate in the Chinese market reached 1.7%. This year's OLED products are widely available, the overall price of products is down, the market is further expanding downwards, and the brand side Lenovo Asus and so on have a lot of OLED products. Panel manufacturers are also actively producing, OLED folding screen will be concentrated in mass production next year, it is expected that OLED products will reach a new height this year.
In terms of Mini LED technology, in 2021, Apple's two new laptops equipped with Mini LED screens came out, which detonated the market heat, but the cost of Mini LED is relatively high, plus the supply cycle is unstable, and the subsequent growth of Mini LED products led by Apple will slow down, and the main theme of market development is still on OLED.
From the perspective of the technology trend of small and medium-sized panels, OLED panels have basically occupied the market share of high-end mobile phones, and gradually penetrated into the low-end field. The LTPS LCD panel has lost momentum in the field of mobile phones, which is bound to seize more market share in IT, automotive and other markets. (Proofreading/Lee)
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