Leaping royal market: oil prices continue to rise, is the plug-in market a short-term outbreak or a long-term positive?

The continuous rise in oil prices has led to a further increase in the cost of fuel vehicles, and has also made more and more prospective car owners hesitate to switch to new energy vehicles. However, under the influence of factors such as the rapid rise in raw material prices and the decline in subsidies, the production cost of electric vehicles is also facing great pressure.

In this context, plug-in hybrid vehicles, which have the dual advantages of pure electricity and traditional fuel vehicles, have become the object of consumer pursuit. However, the policy dividend of plug-in hybrid vehicles is gradually fading. By 2023, plug-in hybrid vehicles will no longer be able to obtain Shanghai's "green card", and some large and medium-sized cities may also land such policies in the future. The outstanding performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the market is only a flash in the pan under the influence of policy, or has it ushered in a new spring when the time is ripe?

Last Thursday (March 17), domestic refined oil prices ushered in "six consecutive rises". Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively, setting the largest increase since the new version of the pricing mechanism in 2013.

Equivalent to the price increase, the price of No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 diesel fuel increased by 0.59 yuan and 0.62 yuan per liter, respectively. Taking an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters as an example, filling a tank of fuel will cost 29.5 yuan more than before.

Prior to this, the domestic refined oil price has been raised for five consecutive times, and the cumulative price of gasoline and diesel has increased by 1265 yuan and 1220 yuan per ton respectively.

The continuous rise in oil prices has led to a further increase in the cost of fuel vehicles, and has also made more and more prospective car owners hesitate to switch to new energy vehicles. However, under the influence of factors such as the rapid rise in raw material prices and the decline in subsidies, the production cost of electric vehicles is also facing great pressure. Since the beginning of this year, nearly 20 car companies, including Tesla, have raised the price of their products.

In this context, plug-in hybrid vehicles, which have the dual advantages of pure electricity and traditional fuel vehicles, have become the object of consumer pursuit. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 368,000 units and 334,000 units, respectively, an increase of 2 times and 1.8 times year-on-year, respectively; From January to February, production and sales totaled 820,000 units and 765,000 units, up 1.6 times and 1.5 times year-on-year, respectively, with a market share of 17.9%.

Among them, in the first two months, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles was significantly higher than that of pure electric vehicles, with production and sales of 168,000 units and 160,000 units respectively, an increase of 2.8 times and 2.5 times year-on-year, respectively.

"With the gradual decline of new energy subsidies and the rise in raw material costs for pure electric vehicle models, the cost advantages of hybrid models have been reflected. In addition, some car owners still have certain concerns about long-distance travel of pure electric vehicles, and hybrid models solve this problem very well. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said frankly, "Plug-in hybrid is a transitional product between fuel and pure electric vehicles, which is an ideal solution in the short term, but it has not performed well in the domestic market before." ”

When combing through the sales of domestic new energy passenger cars in recent years, the reporter found that the sales trend of plug-in hybrid vehicles is indeed very unstable, with large fluctuations up and down; In 2019 and 2020, its sales have declined for two consecutive years.

In 2021, plug-in hybrid vehicles ushered in a strong rebound, and their year-on-year sales growth rate not only exceeded the average level of new energy passenger cars, but also exceeded pure electric models. The data shows that in 2021, the retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year; Retail sales of electric models increased by 168.6% year-on-year to 2.444 million units. Sales of plug-in hybrid models, including range extenders, reached 545,000 units, up 171.2% year-on-year.

In this regard, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said, "This is inseparable from the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, and some car companies have done a lot of work in expanding the market and guiding consumers, and launched products that meet consumer needs." "Statistics show that in 2021, a total of 19 new plug-in hybrid products will be put into the market.

In addition to the stimulation of new models, "the rapid increase in sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles has largely benefited from favorable policies", some insiders said bluntly. The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" released in October 2020 proposes that new energy vehicles are the development direction of the transformation and upgrading of the global automotive industry. At present, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are two types that have been industrially promoted, and they are also the key to new energy vehicles gradually becoming the mainstream of automotive products in the next 10-15 years.

However, the policy dividend of plug-in hybrid vehicles is gradually fading. Previously, Beijing has been excluding plug-in hybrid vehicles from the "green card" policy; According to Shanghai's latest policy, plug-in hybrids will no longer be able to obtain a "green card" by 2023. It is also understood that some large and medium-sized cities may also implement such policies in the future.

So, the outstanding performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the market is only a flash in the pan under the influence of policy, or has it ushered in a new spring when the time is ripe? In this regard, some insiders analyzed that in the past, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles could only be concentrated in cities with limited licenses and limited purchases. The opening of the new sales area provides another new channel for plug-in hybrid vehicles that are gradually declining in the policy dividend.

At the same time, many car companies have significantly increased their efforts to launch new cars in the plug-in hybrid car market, providing consumers with more diversified product choices while also promoting the sales pattern of this segment. According to Xu Haidong, "in the next decade, the hybrid market will have a lot of room for growth to make up for the lack of pure electric vehicle mileage anxiety, lack of charging convenience, and decline in winter endurance." (China Economic Network reporter Wang Yueyue)