Ideal in 2024, sales are likely to surpass BBA?

Text: Rogie

In November, Li Auto delivered more than 41,000 vehicles, and the cumulative delivery of nearly 325,700 vehicles for the whole year, has exceeded the annual target of 300,000 vehicles.

I brushed up on a message before, saying that for 2024, the sales forecast for its supply chain companies is 800,000 units. This rumored ideal aspect has not been confirmed, but it expresses the goal of ideal preparation to challenge for the first place of luxury brands in 2024.

800,000 units look like a clumsy title party at first glance, after all, it has more than doubled compared to this year, and even if NIO and Xpeng are merged, it may not be achieved.

But on the basis of understanding the ideal, I don't think 800,000 vehicles, even if it is 1 million, it is not too far.

After all, in November, Li Auto delivered 41,030 new cars, with a total of 325,677 vehicles delivered throughout the year, and it will soar to 800,000 next year.

However, if you have a deep enough understanding of the ideal status quo and know the product plan that follows it, you will know that 800,000 units, even if it is 1 million units, it will not be too far away.

To change the statistical standard, the ideal is already the first

When it comes to Audi A3 and BMW X1, which are about 200,000 yuan, more rigorous car critics will try to avoid using the title of "luxury car", and will emphasize the entry-level identity of luxury brands. Although there is no unified standard in the industry, a model with a price of less than 300,000 yuan should be more appropriately called a "luxury brand model".

We know that since the birth of the ideal brand, the price has been set at more than 300,000 yuan, and then the L9 has increased the core price range to about 450,000 yuan.

In terms of single models, the L7 with the highest sales in October was the L7, with more than 15,000 units under insurance, while the Audi A6L and BMW 5 Series, which had the highest sales volume in BBA, had 14,000 and 13,000 units respectively in October. With a price of more than 300,000 yuan, Ideal has won the sales championship of a single model, and it is the first in sales in all categories without adding any limited prefix.

At this time, the question arises, if we exclude the low-cost models with BBA below 300,000 yuan, and only look at the price of more than 300,000 yuan, what is the current market pattern?

As shown in the above table, we only count the models with a BBA guide price of more than 300,000 yuan, and the ideal is still lower than the three traditional luxury brands, but the gap has narrowed a lot and has completely reached the same volume.

More importantly, BBA currently has a very large terminal discount for all products, such as BMW 3 series, Mercedes-Benz C-class, Audi A4L and other models, although the starting price is more than 300,000 yuan, but the preferential range is generally as high as 6, 70,000 yuan, and the terminal price of the actual main sales model does not exceed 300,000.

If the actual price of less than 300,000 yuan of sales is excluded, BBA will lose at least 10,000 units of sales, of which the BMW brand in addition to the 3 series and i3 two sedans, the actual main sales price of iX3 is also between 25~280,000 yuan, if they are excluded, the total sales of BMW at the price of more than 300,000 yuan, may be less than 40,000 units.

In other words, in the real luxury market of more than 300,000 yuan, the ideal is already the uncrowned king.

The total amount exceeds BBA, and the ideal is only one step away

First of all, let me ask you a question: which is easier for Ideal to achieve annual sales of more than 800,000 units or to become China's largest luxury brand?

Mercedes-Benz (including Maybach), BMW, and Audi (note that they are brands, not car companies) will have annual sales of 747,000, 770,000 and 643,000 respectively, the first two are close to 800,000, and it seems that they will not reach about 800,000, and it is difficult to surpass Double B.

The ideal current best monthly results, is known as the Golden Nine Silver Ten in October (November on the amount of insurance not out), the first time to exceed 40,000 vehicles, assuming that the ideal can reach this level every month, then the sales of 12 months a year, barely able to reach 500,000 units, and 800,000 units are still far behind.

In fact, compared with the monthly sales in October, the gap between Ideal and BMW, which has the highest sales volume in BBA, is also nearly 4%. To make up for this gap, the ideal must be added next year on the premise that the existing models do not decline, and add a hot model that sells 10,000 units in two months, or a super popular model with an average of more than 20,000 units a month.

You know, over the years, the three brands of BBA have only 3 models that can sell more than 10,000 models per month, and now the ideal needs to add 20,000 new products a year in the luxury market, which is equivalent to rebuilding a peak of NIO, which is so difficult that it is indeed difficult to believe that it can do it.

However, this is only a basic level of analyzing the ideal potential, and in order to accurately predict the ideal future, we need a richer perspective.

The ideal outburst has just begun?

At present, the ideal has been released, but the model that has not yet been listed, only the large pure electric MPV positioning MEGA, its pre-sale price has gone to 600,000 yuan, far exceeding the current highest price L9.

Although the momentum of the current three models of Ideal is very strong, the transformation of MEGA from extended range to pure electric and the leap in pricing from 400,000+ to 600,000 make it difficult for us to make overly optimistic predictions prematurely. Coupled with the price of 600,000 yuan, the current total market size is also quite limited, GLE, Q7, X5 and other 600,000 or so various models added together, monthly sales are basically not more than 20,000 units.

In other words, even if MEGA can win half of the market share at its price as soon as it is listed, it will be difficult for its monthly sales to exceed 10,000. Of course, as a new category with unique positioning, there is also the possibility that MEGA can detonate a large number of high-end demand, but based on rational reasoning, MEGA's stable monthly sales can reach 5,000 units, bringing an increase of about 60,000 units a year, which is already considered a very successful success.

In this way, if you rely on MEGA alone, it will be difficult for the ideal annual sales to exceed 600,000 units next year, so does it have any other growth momentum? Yes, and the potential may be greater than the L series on sale, even if the mid-size SUV that Boss Li once mentioned - L6.

As early as more than a year ago, Li Xiang has disclosed the positioning of the four models of the L series, of which the L6 will not only enter the mid-size level for the first time, but will also become the first model with a price of 300,000 yuan.

Ideal L6 road test spy photos were circulated on the Internet

Judging from the current style of the L series, the styling of the L6 is likely to be a smaller version of the L7, and there should be no major changes in the appearance and interior.

If the L6 can be launched as early as possible next year and sales can reach more than 15,000 units, then it and the MEGA together may provide an increase of more than 200,000 units a year. In this process, if the L7/8/9 models can continue to be in their current state (with an average monthly sales of 40,000 units, a total of 480,000 units a year), then the sales of the five ideal models may approach 700,000 units.

Although there is still a gap with 800,000 units, the volume of the luxury market is limited, and while the ideal grows sharply, BBA will inevitably be impacted, and if the total sales of the ideal can reach 700,000 units, BBA's respective sales are likely to fall to less than 700,000 units. If this happens, the ideal of becoming the No. 1 luxury brand in the country next year is indeed expected to be realized.

However, this is not all the cards of the ideal, in the recent earnings call, Li Xiang revealed that the new car that the ideal plan to release in 2024 is not only planned to be delivered in the first half of the year, but also in the second half of the year, there are 3 pure electric models that are planned to be delivered in the second half of the year. Although they will all be delivered close to the end of the year, it is not impossible that the three models together will contribute 100,000 units to the sales of the ideal by the end of the year.

Taking all these plans into account, the ideal of selling more than 800,000 units next year is not a blind and arrogant fantasy. If these plans go well, the total sales volume of the ideal next year is indeed expected to exceed 800,000 units, even if the effect of some links in the implementation process is discounted, the probability of the ideal annual breakthrough of 700,000 units is also very large.

As mentioned above, if the ideal annual sales exceed 700,000 units, the ideal is still likely to officially surpass BBA next year and become the No. 1 luxury brand in domestic sales.

summary

Of course, back to the present, the total sales of the ideal so far this year have just exceeded 320,000 units, less than half of the Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the same period.

However, an important lesson that the domestic auto market has taught us in recent years is not to laugh at the rhetoric of any Chinese brand, and there are things that we did not dare to imagine before, or that could not happen so soon at all levels and categories in the auto market.

Since January this year, the sales volume of Li Auto has risen month-on-month, and the three L series models have exceeded 10,000 since then, and now all of them have exceeded 10,000 steadily, and L7 has exceeded 15,000 units.

I don't know who will stand at the top of the luxury market after entering a stable period, but it would be ideal to surpass BBA first and become the No. 1 Chinese brand in the domestic luxury market.

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