Abstract:Recently, the Chinese herbal medicine market has shown some unusual characteristics. Although the traditional off-season usually occurs after May Day, this year's market has been unusual, with prices continuing to rise. According to statistics, as of June 13, the comprehensive 200 market price index of Chinese herbal medicines has risen to 3537.85 points, a monthly increase of 12.07%, a record high.
1. Recently, the Chinese herbal medicine market has attracted much attention from capital
In the market, the price of some specific varieties has risen significantly. For example, the prices of Angelica sinensis and Codonopsis increased by 36.97% and 37.48%, respectively, while the monthly increases of Panax notoginseng and Atractylodes macrocephalus exceeded 60%. In addition, the price of rare Chinese herbal medicines such as natural bezoar has also risen sharply, jumping from 500,000 yuan/kg to 600,000 yuan/kg to 1.2 million yuan/kg.
This phenomenon of "off-season" in the market is mainly affected by factors such as weather and capital speculation. Entering June, external funds continued to intervene to find breakthroughs in new low- and medium-priced varieties, and pharmacists still purchased in bulk for some popular bulk varieties, which pushed up market prices.
In addition, the prices of spice Chinese herbal medicine varieties have risen almost across the board, and the strong force of pepper, kaempfera and other varieties has driven the rise of the entire seasoning market. The price increase of spice Chinese herbal medicines is mainly due to the injection of a large amount of funds, including funds in the field of spices, investment and purchase by merchants dealing in Chinese herbal medicines, and a lot of external capital.
In the context of monetary easing policy, the Chinese herbal medicine industry has accumulated a certain scale of funds, which are returned when the market is hot and the market is high, and the market is raised again. This makes it difficult to predict and grasp the price trend of Chinese herbal medicines, because the continuous support of capital makes the simple supply and demand relationship no longer enough to determine the future market of a variety.
To sum up, the recent performance of the Chinese herbal medicine market is abnormal, and the trend of rising prices is reflected in many varieties, and the inflow of funds and speculation in the market are one of the main driving factors.
2. Why can the Chinese herbal medicine market get rid of the seasonal pattern of previous years after May Day?
Reasons for the change in the seasonal pattern of the Chinese herbal medicine market
The seasonality of the Chinese herbal medicine market is usually determined by changes in the relationship between supply and demand. In the past, the Chinese herbal medicine market tended to experience a significant seasonal fluctuation, with spring and autumn being the peak seasons for purchases and sales, and summer being the off-season. This phenomenon is mainly due to the fact that spring and autumn are the growth and harvest seasons for many Chinese herbal medicines, and the supply is larger, while in summer because of high temperature and rain, which is not conducive to the growth and storage of some Chinese herbal medicines, resulting in a decrease in supply.
However, in recent years, the Chinese herbal medicine market seems to have somewhat moved away from this traditional seasonal pattern. This could be due to several reasons:
1. Climate change: Global warming may lead to changes in the growth cycle of Chinese herbal medicines, so that some Chinese herbal medicines can also be grown and harvested in non-traditional seasons, thus affecting the seasonal supply pattern of the market.
2. Scientific and technological progress: The development of modern agricultural technology, such as greenhouse cultivation, irrigation systems, etc., has made the production of Chinese medicinal materials more controllable and no longer completely dependent on natural conditions, which also helps to break the traditional seasonal supply model.
3. Changes in market demand: With the improvement of people's living standards and the enhancement of health awareness, the consumer demand for Chinese herbal medicines is becoming increasingly diversified and personalized, which may lead to the market demand for certain Chinese herbal medicines to remain stable throughout the year, rather than seasonal fluctuations.
4. Supply chain optimization: The development of modern logistics and warehousing technology, as well as the rise of e-commerce platforms, make the circulation of Chinese herbal medicines more convenient and efficient, which can quickly respond to changes in market demand and reduce the impact of seasonal supply fluctuations.
To sum up, the reason why the Chinese herbal medicine market can get rid of the seasonal pattern of previous years to a certain extent is the result of the combined action of many factors. These factors include climate change, technological advancements, changes in market demand, and supply chain optimization.
3. What factors have led to the abnormal performance of the Chinese herbal medicine market in recent years?
The recent abnormal performance of the Chinese herbal medicine market is mainly affected by the following factors:
1. Contradiction between supply and demand: The price fluctuation of Chinese herbal medicines is directly affected by the relationship between supply and demand in the market. In recent years, due to natural disasters and rising planting costs, the production of some Chinese herbal medicines has decreased, while the market demand has increased, resulting in a situation where supply exceeds demand, thus pushing up prices.
2. Capital speculation: The intervention of the capital market is also an important factor leading to the abnormal rise in the price of Chinese herbal medicines. Some investors are optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese herbal medicine market, and speculate by hoarding and inflating prices, which has exacerbated market volatility.
3. Impact of the epidemic: The outbreak of the new crown epidemic has changed people's living habits and health concepts, and has had a positive impact on the demand for Chinese herbal medicines. At the same time, some farmers were unable to grow normally during the epidemic, resulting in a decrease in supply, which further pushed up prices.
4. Imbalance in industrial structure: The structural imbalance within the traditional Chinese medicine industry is also one of the reasons for abnormal prices. The overproduction or underproduction of some varieties of Chinese herbal medicines has led to large fluctuations in market prices.
5. Rising costs: With the rise in labor costs and material prices, the production costs of Chinese herbal medicines have also increased, which directly pushes up the prices of Chinese herbal medicines.
6. Market speculation: Some operators are bullish on the Chinese herbal medicine market, and the reluctance to sell is enhanced, which is also one of the reasons for the increase in the price of some Chinese herbal medicines.
7. Inventory digestion and cost pressure highlighted: The digestion of Chinese herbal medicine inventory and the prominence of cost pressure have led to a significant decline in the gross profit margin of listed Chinese medicine companies, which has further exacerbated the uncertainty of the market.
The interaction of these factors has led to the abnormal performance of the Chinese herbal medicine market recently.
4. Which varieties of Chinese herbal medicine market have the most obvious price fluctuations?
At present, the price of Chinese herbal medicines fluctuates significantly
According to the latest information, the varieties with obvious price fluctuations in the Chinese herbal medicine market include:
1. Chicken bone grass: the annual increase of individual varieties reaches 400%~900%.
2. Licorice: Before the price increase last year, the price of one kilogram of licorice was about 20 yuan, and now the price of licorice of the same weight has risen to forty or fifty yuan.
3. Cat's claw: This year's output is expected to increase by 2 times, but the price has not yet bottomed out, as a niche species, there is still room for price decline in the future.
4. Cordyceps: The average price per kilogram has increased by more than 40,000 yuan this year, and the average price is now.
5. Tangerine peel: The price varies depending on the age of the medicine, and varies between 260 yuan/kg ~ 1400 yuan/kg.
The price fluctuations of these varieties may be affected by a variety of factors, including supply and demand, planting costs, market speculation, and policy regulation. The sharp fluctuation of prices has had a certain impact on both the Chinese medicine industry and consumers, and it is necessary to pay attention to and take measures to stabilize market prices both inside and outside the industry.
Source: Farmers' Gang