Media commentator: Putin's visit to the DPRK hit a sore point in NATO

Straight news

2024-06-18 19:17Published on the official account of Guangdong Shenzhen Satellite TV

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Straight News: What kind of strategic considerations did Russian President Vladimir Putin have for visiting North Korea at this juncture?

Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, we know that Russia and the DPRK are not only neighbors separated by a strip of water, but also that the Soviet Union and the DPRK were once allies. Even so, Putin has not set foot in North Korea for 24 years. Therefore, Putin's official state visit to the DPRK this time is obviously "going to the Three Treasures Hall for nothing." And the "thing" here refers to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, or to put it more bluntly, because Russia has encountered some problems in the Russia-Ukraine war, and needs to leverage and solve these problems through the lever of Russia-North Korea relations.

In my personal opinion, there are two main problems that Russia has encountered in the Russia-Ukraine war.

First of all, in essence, the current troubles that Russia has encountered in the Russian-Ukrainian war do not come from Ukraine, but from NATO, especially from NATO's military assistance to Ukraine, and with the upgrading of the quality and quantity of NATO's weapons assistance to Ukraine, especially as a considerable number of countries have relaxed restrictions to allow Ukraine to attack Russia with the weapons it assists, this problem is becoming more and more serious. It can be expected that if this problem is not resolved, or if this momentum is not curbed, the future prospects for Russia will face relatively difficult prospects. It is in this context that President Putin has made harsh remarks, saying that if NATO continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, then Russia will provide military assistance to NATO's hostile countries. Therefore, we can say that Putin's visit to the DPRK this time is to fulfill his promise with concrete actions and to deter Western countries.

Secondly, we know that although all the current difficulties facing Russia are caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine, to be honest, the biggest and most difficult dilemma facing Russia is not on the military battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, but on the political, economic and diplomatic battlefield. In other words, it is because Western countries led by the United States have imposed unprecedented political, economic and diplomatic blockades and sanctions on Russia. And what is particularly difficult is that in the not-so-distant future, the Russian-Ukrainian war will always end one day, but the all-round blockade and sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia are very likely to continue for a long time. To break this deadlock, the best strategy for Putin at the moment is undoubtedly to attack the "east" and "west", that is, to "look east" and finally force Western countries to abandon the encirclement and sanctions against Russia. I think that's why Putin recently visited China, followed by North Korea and Vietnam in Asia.

In my opinion, further strengthening Russian-DPRK relations through a visit to the DPRK is undoubtedly the best and most effective tool and lever that Putin can find in his hands to attack the "east" and "west". On the one hand, this is because, over the past 70 years, the blockade and sanctions imposed by Western countries led by the United States on the DPRK have mainly focused on the three major areas of high-end military technology, food and energy, and these three major areas are precisely Russia's greatest advantages. If Russia fully loosens the restrictions on the DPRK in these three aspects, then the blockade and sanctions imposed by Western countries on the DPRK over the past 70 years will be completely broken. On the other hand, it is because in the past, the international community's sanctions on North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile tests were mainly carried out through the United Nations Security Council, and Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and has a veto power. If Russia wants to raise the bar with the United States and the West, then the Security Council's counter-action against North Korea will be completely paralyzed. Under these circumstances, Russia believes that if Western countries want to get Russia's cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue, they must relax sanctions against Russia.

Therefore, I think that by throwing out the card of Russian-DPRK relations, Putin has indeed hit the pain point of NATO. This is also the reason why the United States, Japan, and South Korea will feel highly nervous in the face of Putin's visit to the DPRK.

Straight News: According to the Korean Central News Agency, Putin's visit to the DPRK will raise the relations between Russia and the DPRK to a higher level. How high do you think this higher level will be?

Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have noted that in 1961 the DPRK and the former Soviet Union signed the DPRK-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which stipulates that when either side of Russia and the DPRK is in a state of war, the other side should immediately do its utmost to provide military and other assistance. Therefore, the South Korean side is very worried that during Putin's current visit to the DPRK, Russia and the DPRK will sign a new security treaty so that the relations between the two countries will return to the old state of alliance between the DPRK and the Soviet Union. My view is that the possibility of an open and formal alliance between Russia and North Korea is largely non-existent, but that Russia and North Korea will establish a special close relationship in the form of a new security cooperation agreement. The reason behind this is that since the war between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, once a formal military alliance treaty is signed, it means that North Korea will have to send troops to intervene in the war between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, in the event of a war on the peninsula, Russia will also be forced to get involved. It will undoubtedly kill the Russian-DPRK relations, which is something that neither Russia nor the DPRK wants to see. On the contrary, the establishment of a special close relationship will not only allow the two sides to maintain strategic freedom of advance and retreat, but this ambiguous strategy can also have a greater deterrent effect on the United States, Japan, and South Korea. From this point of view, Putin's visit to the DPRK will undoubtedly have an extremely far-reaching impact and change in the geopolitical pattern of Northeast Asia.

In my opinion, due to the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and the DPRK are facing a golden opportunity to build a special close relationship.

First of all, we know that since the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc in the 90s of the last century, the DPRK has actually been standing alone at the forefront of the "post-Cold War era", facing the encirclement and suppression of the Western world in a broad sense led by the United States, Japan, and South Korea on its own, and has always hoped to find a broad shoulder to support in the region. Speaking from facts, if it were not for the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia would have been completely blockaded and encircled by NATO, and Russia, which is bent on "looking westward", would not have placed Russian-DPRK relations in such a prominent position. From this point of view, the sudden proximity of DPRK-Russia relations is actually the result of the strong squeeze of the United States and the West.

Second, in an article published today in the DPRK's Rodong Sinmun, Putin said that not only was the DPRK and still is a "staunch and like-minded partner" of Moscow, but that Russia and the DPRK will move towards closer cooperation and can consolidate the sovereignty of the two countries. This is actually telling the DPRK that the encirclement and sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on the DPRK over the past 70 years are ultimately aimed at subverting the political system and regime of the DPRK, and the ultimate purpose of NATO's military aid to Ukraine this time is also aimed at the Russian regime. This gives the DPRK and Russia a common ideological basis for cooperation. I think Putin should be clear that this should be the most willing thing for North Korea to hear and the outcome to see.

Third, the current approach between the DPRK and Russia is still based on solid practical interests. In recent years, the DPRK has always had a huge demand for high-end military technology, food, and energy, while Russia, which has a vast land and resources and is known as the world's second military power, does not have much actual demand for the DPRK and is in a state of being rigid without desire. However, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war has made Russia also begin to ask North Korea in some aspects, so the DPRK and Russia have become a mutually beneficial relationship of mutual demand, which undoubtedly adds a set of insurance to the construction of a special close relationship between the DPRK and Russia.

Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".

Editor丨Liu Liping, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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