Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea and Vietnam from June 18 to 20 and signed a number of cooperation agreements with the two countries. Today, we will take this opportunity to talk about the relations between countries.
No matter how close a country is, it is all smiling in front of the face and holding a knife behind the back, both ancient and modern, Chinese and foreign.
So when we look at the interaction between countries, we must have a normal mind, and we can't just take one or two things and get emotional, you look at it comprehensively, spread it out, and you feel funny after reading it.
First of all, Putin's visit to the DPRK, Russia and the DPRK are traditional allies, and Russia is now in urgent need of support, and it is not ruled out that there is the idea of fanning the flames on the Korean Peninsula. As for North Korea, it is also in urgent need of military technology, food and energy. These two goods go in both directions, so it is normal to visit the DPRK and strengthen various cooperation.
For China, there is good news about the Tumen River estuary, but this can only be regarded as a sign of good news, and even the Russian satellite news agency reports on this are ambiguous. There is a limit to how good it is.
However, there is no doubt that Putin's visit to the DPRK has certainly aggravated the tension on the peninsula. Therefore, Putin's visit to the DPRK will do more harm than good to China on the whole, and it is better not to come.
In this regard, a hedging news appeared.
On June 18, 2024, the Chinese delegation went to Seoul to hold the first China-ROK 2+2 Dialogue on Diplomatic Security at the Vice Ministerial Level with the ROK.
Pay attention to the wording of the official text: first conversation. Not before, this is the first time.
Now the question is, since it's the first time, why did you set it for June 18th? You must know that June 18 is the day when Putin originally scheduled to visit North Korea.
It's the first time again, and it's June 18, isn't this just for Putin's visit to North Korea? If you want to say that these two things are not related, you will be foolish.
The Chinese side stressed that maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is in the common interests of all parties, including China and the ROK, and that the context and crux of the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula are clear.
You see, these official words are everywhere aimed at the Russian-North Korean alliance.
One more thing, Polish President Duda is going to visit China. Is Poland on good terms with China? Not necessarily.
Could it be that Poland has good relations with Russia? It's even funnier.
In this world, the country that most wants Russia to die, Poland is in second place, then no one is in first place.
Inviting the head of state of a country that hates Russia the most to visit China, what would you think if you were a Russian?
Some people may ask: Does your example mean that the relationship between China and Russia is about to collapse?
Then you think too much, it's impossible, and it's not the same thing at all.
I give this example because now our Internet is full of anthropomorphism for inter-state relations, and there are always people who substitute their personal preferences into inter-state relations, and every move of China's neighboring countries is not good for China, and they are immediately emotional, just like a child.
I think this kind of perception is very bad and naïve, and you should not believe this kind of remarks.
China's move still wants to force Russia back to the negotiating table, put a little pressure on Russia, and let the Russian-Ukrainian war develop in the direction of peace talks.
During Putin's visit to China in May, the two sides issued a joint communiqué, and when I was traveling in Tibet, I stopped to do a program and analyzed the part of the joint statement on the Russia-Ukraine war, that is, the Russian side welcomed the constructive propositions set out in the document "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis".
China's "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" document was released more than a year ago, and Russia did not agree with it at that time, because the first point of China's position is to respect the sovereignty of all countries, and the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries should be effectively guaranteed. The second important thing is to stress the need for a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities and the initiation of peace talks.
Russia's non-committal attitude more than a year ago to today's welcome actually means that Russia is willing to start resolving the Russian-Ukrainian war in a Chinese way and under the leadership of China.
So in that case, you have already made a statement, why are you visiting North Korea? This is clearly not in China's plans!
Then I will have a security dialogue with South Korea, and I invite Poland to visit China.
I don't care if you have any communication with North Korea or not, and what you need to complement each other, but if you want to stir up something on the peninsula, then I would rather cooperate with South Korea than block your attempt. In the meantime, Poland to the west, I'll give you some more eye drops. Hope you can understand what's going on.
Then there is Putin's visit to Vietnam, and there is a lot of debate on the Internet about the energy cooperation between the two sides, some say that Russia helped Vietnam steal oil in the South China Sea, and some say that it helped Vietnam build a nuclear power plant, and the nuclear power plant may be built near the Sino-Vietnamese border.
My advice to these messages is not to focus on these specific details, but to summarize them further up and sort out the essential things.
Vietnam is essentially the kind of country that forgets its life for the sake of small profits and spares its own life for doing big things, and it has always been unable to distinguish between strategy and tactics. I'll give you an example:
In March 2020, at a critical moment when we were fighting the epidemic in a national stagnation, Vietnam Customs announced that from 0:00 on the 24th, all kinds of rice products would be prohibited from being exported in any form.
You can't understand what Vietnam thinks, is it possible that without your little rice, China will be in chaos?
Then, even more funny, China has vigorously brought the epidemic under control, and Vietnam announced on April 10 that it would lift the ban on rice exports. With this brain circuit, you can't accept it.
Geographically, Vietnam's greatest reliance is on the strength of its control and influence over Laos and Cambodia. I'll talk about a fact that many Chinese don't know much about.
In fact, before 2010, Laos could be said to be part of Vietnam. Vietnam is in Laos, just like its own country, and Laos has to seek Vietnam's advice and permission to even appoint officials and formulate policies.
Although Cambodia is not as exaggerated as Laos, Vietnam's influence is greater than that of China, and the legendary Indochinese Federation has existed in real times, not just legends.
And now, Laos and Cambodia have been taken over by China, and China recently wants to help Cambodia build a canal, so that the Mekong River has an outlet to the sea in Cambodia, cutting off one of the most important economic ties between Cambodia and Vietnam, and making the Vietnamese angry. If you were Vietnamese, what would you think?
As a matter of fact, Vietnam's reception of Putin's visit to China this time is also under tremendous pressure.
Vietnam's demand for the West is far greater than its demand for Russia, and the United States has made a bloody effort to support Vietnam over the years, and Putin's visit is indifferent to China, and for the United States, it is more uncomfortable than slapping a big mouth. The statement of the US Embassy in Vietnam was almost a curse.
There is nothing wrong with Vietnam jumping left and right from one power to the next to fight for what it considers to be the greatest interests, and at the very least, it shows that Vietnam's national leaders have not degenerated into puppets of other countries. The three major powers of China, the United States, and Russia are all courting Vietnam, but in fact, it is the most beneficial to China, because Vietnam is the closest to China.
We say all this not to reveal that there are still many contradictions between China and its neighbors, but to illustrate:
We must not substitute our personal perspective, especially our emotions, into inter-state relations. That's not the same thing at all.
Don't stare at China's foreign relations, the top countries in the world are actually about the same.
For example, the United States and Canada, this should be the best relationship in the world, the border is not defended, even the army is shared, basically the same as the same country. That's it, and they are calculating with each other.
There is an oil pipeline in Canada called Keystone, the fourth phase of which was played back and forth by the United States, just started, was stopped by the Obama administration, and then the Trump era began to be built again, and on the first day of Biden's administration, it was rejected again. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was so angry that he said that he would sanction the United States.
There is also India running to Canada to kill people, but the United States is eye-to-eyeing with India, if you use the perspective of personal emotions, Canada will not hate the United States to death, in fact, this is not the case.
To sum up, when Putin visited the DPRK, China has blocked it back with practical actions. In addition to the China-ROK Diplomatic and Security Dialogue, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference on June 19 to state China's position:
Maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is in the common interests of all parties, including China and the ROK. Note the "common interests of all parties", which include not only Russia and North Korea, but also China and South Korea, and of course, the United States and Japan. The meaning is clear, needless to say.
In fact, the biggest effect of Putin's visit to Vietnam is to drive a wedge between Vietnam and the United States and the West. Everything else is a minor issue.
Vietnam is not going to say that it is getting closer and closer to Russia in one visit, and Vietnam is not so stupid. It doesn't matter if you get closer, in history, Vietnam has been closer to the former Soviet Union, and it should be beaten or beaten, and Vietnam will not be so forgetful.
As for the stealing of oil in the South China Sea, it has been going on for decades, and it didn't start with Russia.
It's not that China doesn't want to take care of it, but for the sake of ASEAN's stability, it has to focus on the big and let go of the small. This time, too, it will not be cared for, it has nothing to do with Putin's visit.
As for the nuclear power plant, that's just an intention, and to be honest, if China doesn't want to build it, there are many ways. For example, if the price of electricity delivered to Vietnam is reduced by one dime and eight cents, the nuclear power plant itself will not be built, and it will not be enough to pay compensation.
Small countries do not want face so much, and the Chinese are used to self-reliance, always thinking that other countries will also be self-reliant, but in fact this is not the case. In this world, 90 percent of countries are able to get by, and if Vietnam had China's determination to be self-reliant and self-reliant, it would not have been unable to even run a business with its military.
Individuals may stick a knife in both sides for the sake of friends, but a country sticks a knife in both sides for another country, which really makes people laugh to death. There is a saying that the country has no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only interests.
In fact, this sentence is only half true.
It is right that there are no permanent enemies of the country, and that yesterday's enemies can become today's close comrades-in-arms. But the saying that the country has no permanent friends is not entirely true.
It should be said that the state not only does not have permanent friends, but even for a second there are no real friends. No matter how close your comrades-in-arms are on the surface, you have to guard against it.
In view of the fact that there are many trolls on the Internet, I would like to make one final point clear: if anyone thinks that my article is trying to stir up relations between China, Russia, China, North Korea, and China and Vietnam, then you really think too much. Whoever sits at the child's table doesn't have this kind of cognition.
The relationship between the two countries will always be determined by common interests, and for the time being, the differences outweigh the differences.
If online rhetoric had been useful, Japan would have been wiped out three times ago.