400 billion fell to 98 billion! Small scattered pick-up, big guy ashore

Big Cat True Detective Agency

2024-06-26 19:55Creators in the field of finance and economics

Author | Cat brother

Source | Big Cat Finance Pro

The future is undecided, you and I are dark horses.

Many people enter the stock market with such a mentality, dreaming of getting rich, can the stock market give birth to super-rich?

You can see if you look at the rich list, the vast majority of people still successfully achieve financial freedom through entrepreneurship, such as Zhang Yiming of Bytes, Huang Zheng of Pinduoduo, and some people are entrepreneurship and investment, such as Huang Zheng's teacher Duan Yongping, who successfully started a business and made a lot more money than entrepreneurship, in fact, on the rich list, 7% of people do become super-rich through investment.

It's just that once the success is done, many retail investors who hold the "dark horse dream" have long since become fragmented, and there is not much scattered silver left that they have finally saved.

Where did the lost money go?

Today, let's take a look at a story of someone else making money and see where the mystery is.

In the current environment, a company's operating income increases by more than 20% every year, and its net profit increases by more than 30%, which is very good, right?

But it is such a company, the stock price has fallen by 75% silently, and the market value has fallen from 400 billion at the peak to 98 billion.

Why is it so tragic?

are paying for the previous 13-fold increase.

This company is called Aier Ophthalmology, known as "eye Mao", can be called "Mao", are big leaders, look at the name you know, the company's main business is a variety of ophthalmology services, such as myopia, cataract surgery, etc., but in the face of eye problems, people generally go to public hospitals, so in the past, although Aier Ophthalmology was very profitable, but the market share is really small.

Since their listing in 2009, their stock price has not risen much, and the costs, profits, and revenues of 19 hospitals are small and transparent, not too conspicuous.

In 2014, the company felt that it was too difficult to accumulate a little bit on its own, and it needed to expand its scale quickly, which required a large acquisition.

Where does the money come from?

I took it from the stock market, so I made some fixed increase plans to acquire eye hospitals, and the revenue and profits of these hospitals were very good, which immediately made the financial statements look much better, so in the next three years, the stock price tripled.

This performance is very good, and Aier Ophthalmology has gradually been taken by some bigwigs.

In 2017, Hillhouse Capital appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of Aier Ophthalmology, and Zhang Lei, the boss of Hillhouse, attacked everywhere at that time, which was extremely high-profile, and it was difficult for Aier Ophthalmology to be low-key.

Zhang Lei's style has always been to help the horse to give a ride, the reason why he became a shareholder must be optimistic about the model of Aier Ophthalmology, what he wants to do is to speed up Aier Ophthalmology.

Then Aier Ophthalmology opened, and in the next four years, it rose 13 times.

How?

It is also a two-wheel drive model of "PE + acquisition of listed companies".

What does PE mean?

It is to set up an industrial M&A fund, Aier Ophthalmology will contribute a part, and other wealthy people will contribute a part, and then find a target for investment across the country.

If the invested hospital develops well, Aier Ophthalmology will take the money to acquire and hold these companies, and if they are combined, won't the income and profits go up?

At that time, the market was very optimistic about their model, but there was a big problem in this, that is, the price of acquiring these hospitals was not low.

For example, last year they took over a hospital in Shaoxing, which made a profit of 310,000 yuan in the first three quarters, and lost 880,000 yuan in 2021, and the company's net assets were only 1.48 million. 57.27 million.

For another example, in August 2021, they want to collect a hospital in Heyuan, the price is 33.67 million, but the net assets of this hospital are 89,500, a premium of more than 500 times.

Of course, shareholders have opinions, saying that it is the transfer of interests.

The exchange asked the company, is this a related party transaction? Is there a conveyance of benefits?

The company will definitely deny it, and the matter will be over.

However, many of the hospitals they acquired were bought from Tianjin Aisin, and this Tianjin Aisin has a partner, named Zhang Lei, but there are too many people called Zhang Lei in China.

It is an obvious fact that these industrial funds can make a lot of money.

In fact, if you are the boss of a listed company, you are also happy to do this, a lot of the money for the acquisition comes from the stock market, you don't have to take it from your own pocket, the price is high, the transaction will be much smoother, and many people can also get real money, which is much better than the false name of "worth".

In this way, the performance of listed companies must be good, so the stock price will click up, and then the operation you know, some people in the founding team will start to sell stocks, and some will sell out of stocks, and simply quit work and resign.

In September 2020, his book "Value" was published, which focused on long-termism and value creation.

This book is actually a bit verbose, but there are many people who can't stand the hype, so it quickly became a bestseller, and a bunch of people preach about this book every day, thinking it is a masterpiece.

Aier Ophthalmology's share price also took off, rising 88% in the following months.

However, there is a fatal door that cannot be overcome in high-premium acquisitions, that is, if the performance cannot keep up, the listed company has to do goodwill impairment, admit that the price it paid is too high, and buy a loss.

This is a time bomb, so Aier Ophthalmology has made a lot of acquisition announcements on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has done a lot of goodwill impairment, which has been close to 1.4 billion in a few years, and now there are more than 6 billion hanging there, I don't know what will happen.

It is said that if you always have a knife hanging over your head, the stock price will be under pressure.

At this time, Aier Ophthalmology has risen more than ten times, but everyone is buying more and more, basically brainless, what is the belief that supports them?

The first is the money-making model of "PE + acquisition of listed companies";

The second is Zhang Lei and the long-termism he promotes.

The big guy is still there, what are you afraid of?

Then, "Value" became popular for less than a year, and in the third quarter of 2021, everyone found that Zhang Lei had long been absent from the top ten shareholders, and they had already run away.

Long-termism is about 4 years, but his selling point is really powerful, basically it is sold at the highest point, and he escaped from the top accurately, so this order didn't take much effort, and he earned more than a billion, did the industrial fund make money? How much money did you earn? It's not so clear.

The retail investors who took the order at the high point were dumbfounded.

But they were not alone, and at this time a large number of people rushed in to accompany them.

It turned out that Miss Lan, the goddess of medicine, rushed in at this time, and she has been buying, buying, buying, and becoming a heavy stock in the fund she manages, and she has to make a long-term investment, and she has not made a significant reduction until not long ago, but the stock price has fallen by 75%.

This belongs to the shareholders and the people.

So you see that in this cycle of big ups and downs, the biggest winner must be Zhang Lei, followed by those who sell stocks on the way up, and then fund managers who take management fees, which are all making money.

If you buy or hold the Goddess's fund at a high level, it happens that you are still a fan of the book "Value", and it is too difficult to pursue long-termism and not lose money.

Aier Ophthalmology is still running on this road, and it still spends a lot of money to buy a lot of hospitals every year. But it's not easy to pull up the stock price.

First of all, the issue of premium and goodwill has been questioned;

Secondly, if you look at his income, it mainly comes from the first and second-tier big cities, but the eye hospital is not a convenience store, these cities are basically saturated, and you can only sink if you buy it, but the third- and fourth-tier hospitals have a lot of poor earning ability, and the risk is still very high.

Therefore, in recent years, there have been a lot of things in Aier Ophthalmology, such as the dispute with Dr. Ai Fen, such as the rebate issue that circulated before, etc., and it is indeed a bit difficult for the market value to return to the high point.

It can only be said that this kind of ten-fold bull stock may not be prepared for retail investors.

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