[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.6.27
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively low, and then showed a trend of shock adjustment, the two cities fell more and rose less, more than 4,300 stocks were green, and the half-day turnover was 386.8 billion, 65.5 billion more than the previous trading day.
Yesterday's market, as we talked about before, did become a turning point, in the morning, the market was still gloomy, the index fell again, but in the afternoon, the situation began to reverse, the market ushered in a wave of rebound. The most eye-catching thing is that this wave of rebound is provoked by the technology field, which is a positive signal. However, the fly in the ointment is that the trading volume has not kept up, which makes the future market more uncertain.
Speaking of today, we have to keep an eye on it, to see if this rebound can be sustained, now the short-term challenge facing the market is the 5-day moving average and the 3000 point mark, if the technology stocks can continue to exert force, not only their own rush, but also pull the entire index to break through 3000 points, then it can basically be said that the previous adjustment is almost in place, the bottom may be stable here, but if the momentum of yesterday's technology stocks is extinguished today, then the market has to continue to explore the bottom, looking for real support.
In the days to come, the index may fluctuate a bit, up and down, but our focus will still have to be on the technology sector, especially those promising areas, such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, semiconductor technology, etc. These industries not only represent the trend of future development, but also the vane of market vitality.
For us ordinary investors, we can be more flexible in strategy, first of all, don't rush to enter the full position, after all, the market has not completely stabilized, you can consider building positions in batches, especially focusing on those technology stocks whose valuations appear more reasonable after the pullback. At the same time, be patient and observe the changes in volume, if the volume can be effectively amplified, it will be a strong signal that market confidence is restored. It's also important to diversify your investments and don't put your eggs in one basket. In addition to technology stocks, it is also possible to pay attention to other sectors with potential, which can not only diversify risks, but also capture growth opportunities in different areas.
From the perspective of sectors, consumer electronics, smart wearables, and large state-owned banks led the gains today; Home appliance parts, auto services, and automotive thermal management sectors led the decline today.
From the perspective of capital, consumer electronics, smart wearables, and 5G are the main net inflows; Huawei, China Special Valuation, and emerging industries have net outflows.
From the index point of view, consumer electronics, China Securities Bank, and electronics were among the top gainers in 50 days; Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical, Hong Kong Dollar, Hang Seng Healthcare, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Day Gainers were the least.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week moving average, dead fork, 10-week moving average; The MACD indicator is dead, the green column is expanding, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axis; The KDJ indicator death fork spreads downward, and the J value bottoms out; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the middle band.
Analysis: In the medium term, the index is downward, falling below the support of multiple moving averages, and has fallen to a more critical position in the medium term, near the 30-day moving average, if it falls below this moving average, the medium-term technical downward trend will also open.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving averages are dead forks; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the green column is expanding, and the indicator line is running above the 0 axis; The KDJ indicator death fork spreads downward, and the J value bottoms out; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the lower band.
Analysis: In the short term, the downward channel of the index is officially opened, and the subsequent recovery may greatly increase the resistance, but there is no need to be too sad, I personally think that the limit of the downward trend is 2900 points.
【Fundamentals & News】
The price of cylindrical lithium batteries has increased by about 10%, and the industry's profitability is expected to continue to increase. (Battery)
Guangdong promotes hydrogen energy high-speed demonstration projects, and the hydrogen price does not exceed 35 yuan per kilogram. (New Energy Vehicles)
· Precedence expects the global AI chip market to grow at a CAGR of 29.72% from 2024 to 2026. (Chip)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.19, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.82, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 26.11, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 44.98, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.81, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.29, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 21.54, normal valuation.
【Plate Analysis】
Gold: The Fed's movement is quite eye-catching, and Governor Bowman said that there may not be any interest rate cuts this year, and they have postponed the expectation of this matter until after next year. As soon as this news came out, the stock market and the gold market were quite calm, and they didn't seem to take it too seriously.
We all know that under normal circumstances, if the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds goes up, the price of gold tends to fall, because investors may find bonds more attractive, but Bank of America has such a point of view, saying that it may be such a script at the beginning, but in the long run, as soon as the market is stable, funds will flow back to gold. After all, gold has always been a good place to avoid risk.
Let's talk about those central mothers who hold a lot of money, their interest in gold has not decreased, and the position of the dollar in their foreign exchange basket has loosened a little, and many central mothers have begun to think about buying more gold to diversify and diversify risks. Last year, the central mothers of various countries did not start less, and the total added up to 1,000 tons, which is second only to the historical high of the previous year, which is shocking enough.
Based on these circumstances, for us ordinary investors, there may be some ways to ponder. First, while changes in U.S. Treasury yields may make gold prices fluctuate in the short term, gold's role as a safe haven is stable in the long run. Especially if the global economy is in turmoil, gold is often the preferred refuge for funds.
Secondly, the "golden fever" of central mothers in various countries is also worth noting. Their buying spree reflects the fact that gold's position in the global monetary system remains strong. This is a reminder for our individual investors, allocating some gold, whether it is physical gold, gold ETFs or other gold-related financial products, can be regarded as adding a layer of insurance to their portfolios.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: Kechuang 50, 500 quality, infrastructure engineering, the Belt and Road, China Securities Insurance, China General Internet, Vietnam market.
Ready to get off: None.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.