Can A-shares "turn over" in July? How to lay out the market outlook? The agency says so

CBN

2024-06-28 15:52CBN official account

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01 Institutions are generally optimistic that the A-share market is expected to start rising in July, focusing on the fields of going overseas, scientific and technological innovation, and new energy.

02In the A-share market trend in June, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.74%.

03 Due to the impact of capital, valuation and policy, Huatai Securities believes that the "seven turnover" market can still be expected.

04 CITIC Securities expects that A-shares will usher in the starting point of the annual upward market, especially after the policy signals, price signals and external signals have been verified in the third quarter.

05 China Merchants Securities said that it entered the performance forecast disclosure period in July, and the weight of the impact of performance on style increased, supporting the performance of leading styles.

Technical support is provided by Tencent Hybrid Model

On the last trading day of June, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and moved higher in early trading, and then retreated after being suppressed by the 10-day moving average. The electric reform sector dominated by the UHV sector has risen again after a full pullback.

Looking forward to July, institutions believe that the market is expected to start an upward trend, and are generally optimistic about going overseas, scientific and technological innovation, new energy and other fields.

The three major stock indexes all fell more than 3% in June

Looking back at the trend of the A-share market in June, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for 6 of the 19 trading days of this month, during which the overall decline was 3.87%.

The Shenzhen Component Index rose for 10 days, during which it fell 5.51% as a whole;

The GEM index fell by 6.74% as a whole during the period.

According to Wind data, in terms of sectors, high-frequency PCB (monthly increase of 17.89%), ETC (monthly increase of 15.85%), and transportation equipment (monthly increase of 8.43%) were among the top gainers this month; Pharmaceutical business (down 21.47% this month), central real estate (down 18.50% month), and ST sector (down 17.54% this month) were among the top decliners.

In terms of individual stocks, after excluding the new stocks listed this month, Yihao New Materials (monthly increase of 90%), Mankun Technology (monthly increase of 84%), and Genvict Technology (monthly increase of 71%) were among the top gainers;

The top three decliners were the delisted Garden City (monthly decline of 96%), the delisting of Carbon Yuan (monthly decline of 85%), and the delisting of Tongda (monthly decline of 79%).

There is a high probability that it will rise in July

Looking ahead, Huatai Securities believes that under the guidance of capital, valuation and policy, the "seven turnaround" market may still be expected. CITIC Securities also believes that with the convening of important meetings in July, the market is expected to usher in further clarification of policy expectations, which will support market risk appetite, and it is expected that A-shares will usher in the starting point of the annual rise, especially when policy signals, price signals and external signals are verified in the third quarter, the market is expected to directly start the rising market.

Cinda Securities said that after July, A-shares may start to rise, and the main catalyst may come from the impact of interim reports, economic data and real estate policies. In terms of short-term style disturbances, it is mainly the strong stocks (dividends) in the later stage of the market adjustment to make up for the decline, and the high and low cuts (science and technology) at the level of some capital transactions, the time of style disturbance is likely to be no more than 1 month, and the market dominated by upstream cyclical stocks has not ended.

China Merchants Securities believes that the impact of performance on style will increase in July, and ETFs are expected to continue to contribute incremental funds to A-shares to support the performance of leading styles. In addition, the main line of reform at the Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in July and the key support direction of the Politburo meeting at the end of the month may affect the market style, and the high ROE and high FCF leading style based on the DCF pricing model is expected to be relatively dominant.

"Although the recovery market since February has faced twists and turns, the most pessimistic period of this year's expectations may be over." CICC said that the overall valuation of the A-share market has returned to the historical bottom level, and the increase in the steady growth policy in the second half of the year combined with the continuous improvement of the system under the current capital market policy dividends will help continue to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence again, and continue to pay more attention to phased and structural opportunities in the second half of the year.

Institutions are optimistic about this layout

For the direction in which the market outlook may be dominant, institutions are generally optimistic about going overseas, scientific and technological innovation, new energy and other fields.

Cinda Securities believes that the follow-up may be the strongest in the upstream cycle and going overseas. The disturbance of the short-term style is mainly the strong stocks (dividends) in the later stage of the market adjustment, and the high and low cut (science and technology) at the level of some capital transactions, and the time of the style disturbance is likely to be no more than 1 month. The market for upstream cyclical stocks is not over. It is recommended to configure the upstream cycle> overseas (automobile, auto parts, home appliances), >finance> real estate AI, pharmaceuticals & >semiconductors& new energy, consumption.

Ping An Securities said that the medium-term market structural opportunities in the equity market are increasing, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental signals and policy directions.

First, the direction of new qualitative productivity driven by policy support and industrial trends;

the second is the overseas sector of enterprises that are globally competitive and benefit from foreign demand;

the third is the price increase chain that is more affected by supply constraints and is expected to continue;

Fourth, we will continue to allocate a stable dividend strategy, focusing on the diffusion opportunities of high dividend allocation and the transformation of earnings expectations.

CICC pointed out that the Lujiazui Forum released a positive signal of capital market reform to support the development of new productive forces, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 8 measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Under the background of strong external demand, there are still opportunities for the allocation of export chain industries and global pricing resources; Although the dividend assets have been adjusted recently, the medium and long-term logic has not changed; Green sectors such as new energy focus on marginal changes in recent industrial policies.

(This article is from Yicai)

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