In yesterday's World Preliminary Round 18 draw ceremony, the Chinese men's football team was finally divided into Group C with Japan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Bahrain and Indonesia, while the other two groups were:
Group A: Iran, Qatar, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan, North Korea
Group B: Republic of Korea, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Palestine, Kuwait
Many people believe that the Chinese men's football team has entered the group of death, because Japan, Australia, and Saudi Arabia have all participated in the 2022 World Cup!
However, in fact, in the top 12 of the 2022 World Preliminaries, the Chinese men's football team has already been with these 3 teams!
The top 12 of the 2022 World Preliminary Tournament is divided into 2 groups, and the Chinese men's football team is in a group with Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Oman, and also has the top three in Asia.
At that time, the rules were: the top 2 teams in 2 groups, a total of 4 teams directly entered the World Cup, and the 3rd place in 2 groups competed for a place in the intercontinental play-offs. In the end, the Chinese men's football team ranked 5th in the group and was out of the tournament ahead of schedule.
This time the rules are a little looser:
There are 6 teams in each group, and the home and away double round-robin system will be played, and the top 2 teams in the group will directly qualify for the World Cup, occupying a total of 6 places. The 3-4 teams from each group advance to the second stage, for a total of 6 teams.
The 6 teams are divided into 2 groups for a single round-robin group stage, with 3 teams in each group, and the 1st of the 2 groups will also qualify directly for the World Cup, while the 2nd of the 2 groups will compete for 1 chance to participate in the intercontinental play-offs.
In other words, in the first stage of the group stage, the Chinese men's football team must finish at least 4th in the group in order to continue to retain the hope of qualifying for the World Cup.
From the point of view of strength, the Chinese men's football team is in the fifth gear, and the normal performance can only be ranked 5th in the group, or the fate of going out in advance, plus encountering Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia 3 teams, it is simply the group of death, in all fairness, in terms of the strength and fighting spirit of the Chinese men's football team, qualifying for the World Cup is "utopia", and it is difficult to even compete for the 4th place in the group.
The Chinese men's football team has a total of 10 matches, and the schedule is as follows (the home team is in front):
First round: September 5, 2024 Japan vs China
Second round: September 10, 2024 China vs Saudi Arabia
Third round: October 10, 2024 Australia vs China
Fourth round: October 15, 2024 China vs Indonesia
Fifth round: November 14, 2024 Bahrain vs China
Sixth round: November 19, 2024 China vs Japan
Round 7: March 20, 2025 Saudi Arabia vs China
Round 8: March 25, 2025 China vs Australia
Round 9: June 5, 2025 Indonesia vs China
Round 10: June 10, 2025 China vs Bahrain
First of all, the Chinese men's football team will definitely not be able to get the top 2 in the group! Therefore, there is not much difference between the 3rd and 4th places in the group, and the 4th is the most ideal and possible goal of the Chinese men's football team in these 10 games.
In the last World Preliminary Tournament, the Chinese men's football team was 0-1 Japan at home and 0-2 Japan away, with 0 points in 2 games and 3 goals lost.
The Chinese men's football team is 0-3 Australia away and 1-1 Australia at home, with 1 point in 2 games and 3 goals lost.
The Chinese men's football team is 2-3 Saudi Arabia away and 1-1 Saudi Arabia at home, with 1 point in 2 games and 1 goal lost.
Due to the small number of promotion places in the last session, this result is definitely no play. And there are many places in this session, if it is this result, as long as Bahrain and Indonesia are suppressed, they can still get the 4th place in the group, and there is still hope.
In the face of the top 3, the Chinese men's football team still has to get at least 2 points, which is to prevent Bahrain and Indonesia from accidentally getting points. Then against Indonesia and Bahrain, the Chinese men's football team must win at least 1 and draw 1 to ensure that they finish 4th in the group.
This is what the Chinese men's football team is most likely to do:
1 win and 1 draw against Bahrain, 1 win and 1 draw against Indonesia, and 2-3 points can be obtained in 6 matches against the top 3.
This is a total of 10-11 points, because the top 3 have to compete for the top 2, the competition is fierce, so it is difficult for them to upset Bahrain and Indonesia, so this result is enough to ensure that the Chinese men's football team enters the second stage of the group stage.
As for the second group stage, it's a matter of luck.