Contest & Time:
Euro 2024, 1/8 Finals (Match 2)
2024.06.30 03:00, Germany vs Denmark
Score prediction: Germany 2:0, 2:1, 3:0 Denmark (draw, win)
Judging from the probability of promotion & starting prediction, Germany will win but it will not be easy, and Denmark may be eliminated but it will not be a big defeat
ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILITIES OF GERMANY AND DENMARK AS PUBLISHED BY FOOTBALL MEDIA OUTLETS SCORE 90 AND LIVE SCORE, THE HOST GERMAN TEAM IS UNDOUBTEDLY THE BIGGEST WINNER OF THIS MATCH. After all, the probability of predicting that the German tank can advance is at least around 7 percent, while Denmark is only around 3 percent.
Therefore, this situation has actually set the tone for this 1/8 final - the German team will still take the initiative to attack, to take the lead and continue to expand the advantage; Denmark, on the other hand, will rely on tenacity to defend, constantly pushing back the time when the team is likely to fall behind and waiting for an opportunity to counterattack.
Therefore, whether Phil Krueger starts or not may be an important premise for determining the process of the German team in this game. After all, Denmark, who are bound to move their defence back, can actually leave the Germans with less and less space to possess the ball and pass through the depths of their advance, and the only way to solve this problem is to bomb from high altitudes or form a two-penalty opportunity in the box through the fulcrum of the high striker to threaten the goal.
Then, the problem in front of the German team and the Danish team is actually the same, how to do a good job of passing (defense) in the area of 30-35 meters in front of the penalty area, how to do a good job of the straight plug (interception) in front of the penalty area, and how to do a good job of the bottom cross (air defense) on the side!
Germany
The problems of the German tank, which have already begun to present themselves in the group stage, will inevitably need to change their formation to solve the current dilemma and problems
In the 2-0 win over Hungary, Germany's problems with the ball in the midfield began to be exposed, because Hungary found a way to stifle the German team's attacking organization - Kroos. Therefore, such a discovery is not only copied by the Swiss team, but also by Denmark;
In the 1-1 draw with Switzerland, Germany's dribbling in front of the field began to be greatly restricted, and the opponent also found a shortcoming - as long as the offensive pass was slightly accelerated and a pass was made, then Neuer would definitely be tested and there would be a lot of noise in front of goal.
Therefore, this game against Denmark, perhaps the use of Wirtz and Phil Kruger will be a major attraction in determining the game.
With Musiala's brilliant performance so far, Wirtz may have been suppressed to a certain extent. Therefore, whether to consider dropping back the position and assisting Kroos with some playmaking and attacking advancement may be able to free up a greater role for the players in the game;
Judging by the opinion polls, Phil Kruger's replacement of Kai Havertz is already highly anticipated. After all, if you fall behind in the knockout round, you may not be able to equalize in the 92nd minute. So, if Germany needs to be the first to build an advantage, they might as well go back to the most traditional attacking methods.
Denmark
Needless to say, the strategy of deep defense is needless to say, but Hojlen and Eriksen's harassment of Kroos is actually just as significant
When Denmark are likely to shrink their defence to cope with Germany's high possession rate and high pass success rate, they will certainly have a big constraint on the hosts' passing lanes and personnel movement. After all, compressing the space must be one of the more effective ways to defend at the moment.
However, in situations where deep contraction is not entirely guaranteed, it may be that the frontcourt interception and man-to-man tactics from the forward line and the midfielder are actually an effective means to reduce the pressure on the defensive line and increase the attacking threat.
Although Hojlen has yet to score in the European Championships, he can still show his role against strong teams that like to possess the ball.
First, tireless running can build the first line of defense of your side and constantly harass the opponent's organizational core;
second, it can put some pressure on the opponent's defensive line, because pulling and scrambling back and forth will inevitably affect the opponent's ball control rhythm and transmission line;
Thirdly, the most important point is that only if you can maintain a good distance from Eriksen and form a linkage, as long as there is an opportunity to counterattack, the through ball in the midfield can actually create space for Hojlen to sprint and a chance to shoot a single ball. Moreover, Denmark, who are good at long-range shooting, can actually reflect the ability of their midfielders outside the penalty area through Hojlen's fulcrum role.
Will Denmark's 1992 European Championship miracle be played out on this occasion?
Germany and Denmark have met three times at the European Championships, the most recent of which was in the third round of the group stage of Euro 2012, when Germany won 2-1. The farthest was at the 1988 European Championship, when the German tank, then called West Germany, won 2-0. But the most famous matchup was undoubtedly the 1992 final, which won Denmark with a score of 2:0.
But looking back at the meetings between the two sides in recent years, in fact, the gap is really not as big as imagined - the German team's record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses is actually evenly matched. Moreover, in the meeting between the two sides, there has never been a team that has scored three goals, and even half of the games have been between one goal.
Therefore, whether it is from the history of the confrontation or the current form, it is actually very difficult for the two sides to contribute a big score game, but in the current situation of the German team, in fact, the possibility of Denmark wanting to cause an upset does not exist.
Therefore, the German team fighting at home should finally advance to the next 1/4 finals with a stable score!