The main content of this exchange with friends is about NVIDIA's weekly performance.
Nvidia has seen a sharp decline recently. Nvidia's stock price has continued to climb since the split, but in 30 days, it has pulled back as much as 16%, with one trading day falling nearly 6%.
Nvidia stock price fluctuations and market impacts
The fall in Nvidia's share price has given rise to two analyses.
In the first half of this year, several U.S. high-tech stocks, represented by Nvidia, almost single-handedly supported all the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes.
Currently, 60%-70% of stocks have failed to reach the rising levels of these two indices, while a third of them have even fallen below average.
If we look at these two indices as a group of ten stocks, then it is three stocks that dominate the vast majority of gains.
Originally, the market was worried that once a stock like Nvidia corrected sharply, it could trigger a major correction in the current bull market in the U.S. stock market, or even turn into a bear market.
Nvidia shares have fallen by double digits in the past few days, with a maximum decline of 16%, but since Nvidia is not a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow Jones has hardly reacted to it.
At the same time, the Dow Jones index has not seen a major correction, which indicates that the overall bull market situation in the US stock market is still in place.
The fluctuation of Nvidia's stock price has a significant impact on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes. Although Nvidia has fallen by more than double digits, the decline in both indices has not been large, ranging from about 2%-3%.
This shows that the bull market in the US stock market is not completely over, and investors' funds have not been massively withdrawn because of Nvidia's large decline.
For those investors who didn't buy when the stock price was high, this could be an opportunity to buy the dip. Of course, it's often hard to get the timing right. And we can't buy or sell Nvidia shares directly.
The hotly debated topic in the overseas financial media in recent days involves one of Son's bold investment decisions.
Mr. Son, who was one of Nvidia's major shareholders, invested about $700 million at the time to acquire a 4.5 percent stake in the company.
After holding them for a while, Son sold the shares in order to realize the profitability of his Vision Fund. The $700 million he spent on buying grew to $3.3 billion when he sold, making a profit of nearly 500%. At the time, it was a very successful investment.
After Nvidia's stock price skyrocketed, Nvidia's market capitalization once reached $3.3 trillion, surpassing Apple and Microsoft to become the largest publicly traded company in human history.
Son lamented that if he had held it back then, he would have made a profit of up to $150 billion.
Therefore, the stock is always full of regrets, people can never predict its future, and the story of the subsequent second and third seasons cannot be predicted.
Masayoshi Son is known to be a big winner on Alibaba, but he hasn't always been a big winner. Stock investing is always full of unknowns, and even Warren Buffett has had times when he sold too early or made a mistake in judgment.
When Nvidia's stock price falls, does that mean there is still a chance for AI? Is America's high-tech story over? Has the U.S. stock market started to shift?
Or is it at the moment of transition from a bull market to a bear market? This is a test of judgment for every investor.
Personally, I would like to share that when Nvidia's stock price fell, I bought a public fund with a large proportion of Nvidia shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
Then I found out that there is a fund company that offers a cross-border QDII product that can buy 500 RMB shares per day. Recently, the company only accepts regular investments and no longer allows single purchases.
At present, the channels for buying more Nvidia shares have basically been closed. Buying the S&P 500 and Nasdaq cross-border ETFs, both of which currently have premiums, can only be avoided for now.
I recommend turning to the fund trading platform on the bank side to buy these two products, because among the NVIDIA-related products that can be purchased in China, Nvidia has a relatively large share of these two index cross-border ETFs.
This is the only way to do this at the moment. So my strategy is to start buying gradually and adding to your position whenever the Nvidia stock price goes down and the two stock markets are down at the same time.
Are Saudi ETFs an investment opportunity or a challenge?
Recently, two mutual fund companies launched an advertisement for the issuance of an ETF in Saudi Arabia. Why should we invest in this Saudi ETF? Some data is provided here.
First of all, in the global stock market, the combined market capitalization of China A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is about $12 trillion, ranking second in the world.
It is followed by Japan with a total market capitalization of about $6.34 trillion, the United Kingdom in fourth place with a total market capitalization of $3.33 trillion, France in fifth place with a total market capitalization of $3.25 trillion, and Saudi Arabia in sixth place with a total market capitalization of $2.6 trillion, surpassing Germany to make it one of the top 10 stock markets in the world.
It is also a market to watch when fund companies launch cross-border ETFs in the A-share markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Another point worth noting is that if I want to invest in this market, I will look for strong stocks in that market.
For example, in the ranking of total market capitalization in Europe, Novo Nordisk is currently in first place, ASML in the Netherlands is in second place, and Louis Vuitton in France is in third place.
If you are in the United States, you need to look for companies with high market capitalization, that is, to see which companies have the potential to enter the $1 trillion club.
Among the companies currently listed in the United States, there are about a few companies that are close to this market capitalization figure: TSMC, which is traded in the United States in the form of ADR in mainland Taiwan; Warren Buffett's company; One of the largest pharmaceutical companies in human history on the U.S. stock market, Eli Lilly & Company.
They are currently the three potential candidates closest to a $1 trillion market capitalization in the United States.
If you want to choose individual stocks to outperform the index, in fact, from the beginning of last year to the present, large-cap stocks have generally outperformed the index, and these are the so-called famous white horse stocks.
This has been proven in practice, and of course there are always surprises. From a global perspective, among the 10 largest stocks in the world by market capitalization, Saudi Aramco of Saudi Arabia is the largest listed oil company, and its total market capitalization can probably rank sixth or seventh among the top 10 stocks in the world.
Therefore, investing in a cross-border ETF in Saudi Arabia is basically investing in the largest listed oil company by market capitalization. From a stock perspective, you're also investing in companies with the highest market capitalization.
Before the cross-border ETF in Saudi Arabia was issued in our A-share market, it had been trading in the form of a Saudi ETF in Hong Kong dollars in the mainland Hong Kong market for about two or three months.
Looking at the performance in these months, the ETF has risen by more than 14% from its peak price after launch. Therefore, for investors with a more diversified asset allocation, it is advisable to consider buying a Saudi ETF after trading on the exchange, and if there is a premium, it is recommended that you do not buy it.
If there is a discount, you can buy it gradually. Practice has shown that newly issued public funds, including cross-border ETFs, are not always winners.
Funds are different from new stocks, the myth of undefeated new stocks has long been broken, and similarly, the myth of undefeated new funds is no longer true.
If you don't think there is much more room for imagination in Saudi ETFs or the Saudi stock market, and if you have limited assets, then you should pay attention to the ETFs in the US market that we can buy in RMB, including the two Nasdaq ETFs and the S&P 500 ETF.
But be careful, don't buy premium products.
Author: Li Guangyi
Editor: Zhang Tianyi
Producer: Wang Junji
This article is the exclusive content of the WeChat public account of "CBN Broadcasting", please contact the background for authorization before reprinting. The individual stocks involved in this article are for reference only, and are not recommended for trading and are not responsible for personal income.