Pig market: June is coming to an end, from the market feedback, this month's pig prices show a trend of "rising first and then falling and then rising"! Among them, in mid-June, the short-term pig price rose by 18.9 yuan, and the average price in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang rose by 20 yuan/kg, but after late June, the pig price bottomed out at 17.35 yuan/kg, and the market price fell by nearly 8.2% in the month. However, in recent days, pig prices have increased slightly, and the price has shown a "tail" performance!
According to institutional analysis, after the Dragon Boat Festival, pig prices fell sharply for a short time. First, due to the lack of post-holiday consumption support, the purchase and sales of white strips were bleak; Second, the breeding end of the early entry of the pen and the secondary fattening of the weight of pigs slaughtered increased; Third, the group's pig enterprises have the operation of increasing the amount of pigs! This briefly supported pig prices lower!
However, in recent days, pig prices have shown a trend of rebounding, and market support has gradually strengthened, as follows:
On the one hand, due to the acceleration of the sow inventory in July ~ September last year, the supply of standard pigs in June ~ July this year was "broken", the pressure on the breeding end of the slaughter was reduced, and the market was bullish on the market outlook.
On the other hand, due to the fall of the center of gravity of pig prices, the price of standard pigs fell back to the price expected by the psychology of Eryu, the north and south regions, the enthusiasm of Eryu rebounded again, and the mentality of buying standard pigs in many places became stronger, which further boosted market sentiment!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, under the guidance of emotion, pig prices show a short-term strong trend! According to data analysis, on June 30, the pig price rose by 0.22 yuan, and the price of pigs rose to 17.85 yuan/kg! In the short term, at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the pace of the group's pig enterprises slowed down, and the pig price may maintain a strong trend, but due to the obvious pressure of consumption constraints, the rebound space may be limited, and the market will pay attention to the changes in market purchase and sales sentiment!
At the same time, in the gasoline and diesel market, domestic oil prices have "risen upside down". On the 14th of this month, No. 92 gasoline briefly fell into the "7 yuan era", and in just about half a month, the oil price rose back to the "8 yuan era!" ”
According to the analysis of market feedback during the year, after deducting the rise and fall of gasoline and diesel prices in 2024, gasoline will rise by 590 yuan and diesel will rise by 570 yuan. Among them, in Beijing, No. 92 gasoline rose to 8.02 yuan/liter, up 0.48 yuan from the beginning of the year, and in Shandong, No. 92 gasoline rose to 7.98 yuan/liter, up 0.47 yuan from the beginning of the year......
Now, in the first half of 2024, the oil price adjustment will be fully implemented, according to the refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the next oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on July 11, 2024, and this time it will also be the "beginning" of the third quarter, and there is still a risk of further rise in oil prices!
According to the analysis of institutional data, the 14th refined oil price adjustment in 2024, on the first working day of this round of pricing cycle, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 84.07 US dollars / barrel, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to increase by as much as 80 yuan / ton, and the oil price is in the range of a slight increase, and it is estimated that 92/95 gasoline will rise by about 6~7 cents per liter.
At the moment, the oil market is bullish as well as bearish!
On the one hand, the U.S. Energy Administration announced a 3.7 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories in the new period, which increased market concerns about weak demand in the U.S. energy season; On the other hand, the U.S. dollar index is stronger, the cost of funds for enterprises is higher, the U.S. manufacturing activity has fallen for two consecutive weeks, and the market's concerns about the prospects for the U.S. economic recovery have become stronger, which may suppress demand expectations in the crude oil market!
Positive factors: on the one hand, the summer crude oil consumption season is coming, although the market is worried about weak demand, but North America is about to usher in the tourist season, the United States Independence Day is coming, and residents' demand for driving tourism consumption may increase significantly;
On the other hand, the crude oil supply pattern is tight, the organization of oil producing countries maintains the plan of voluntary production cuts, superimposed, recently, the concern of geopolitical risk spillover has become stronger, the conflict between Israel and Lebanese Allah has intensified, and the market is worried about crude oil supply!
Therefore, in the crude oil market, the stage of the market or will maintain the trend of rising and falling narrow ranges, at the beginning of the current round of pricing cycle, the domestic crude oil rate of change or will be positive, and with the gradual realization of energy demand, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, and international oil prices still have the momentum to break through!
From a rational point of view, on July 11, 2024, the trend of domestic oil prices rising may be determined, and the author will continue to pay attention to the development of the market and update the latest oil price adjustment news in a timely manner!
Attached: The price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations around the country on June 30, 2024!
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