Soybean meal market: June is coming to an end, in terms of domestic soybean meal spot, from the agency data, in Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin and Guangdong, coastal oil mills 43% protein, soybean meal spot price at 3200 ~ 3280 yuan / ton, spot price to maintain a weak and strong trend, some oil mill quotation rose 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton!
Recently, the U.S. bean market is under pressure, due to South America, soybeans have entered the concentrated export stage, U.S. bean exports have been inhibited, superimposed, precipitation in U.S. bean producing areas may alleviate soil moisture, which is conducive to the growth of soybean crops, the market is expected to increase the production of U.S. beans, CBOT soybean quotations are under pressure, among them, the November contract quotation is about 1100 cents / bu, lower than the cost of U.S. beans planting 1195 cents, the market is at a stage low, in the short term, subject to weather speculation and cost pressure, The U.S. bean market may have an opportunity to stop falling and rebound!
In the domestic spot market, spot soybean meal will continue to be under pressure, the agency estimates that 125 sample oil mills in July, soybean port scale in 9.78 million tons, August is estimated at 10.5 million tons, as imported soybeans are still in the stage of concentrated arrival, port inventory increases, oil mill raw material inventory surges, soybean meal weekly average crushing is generally around 2 million tons, soybean meal into the stage of accelerating accumulation!
As of the 25th week of the year, the soybean inventory of domestic oil mills was 5.4643 million tons, an increase of 26.6% year-on-year. Soybean meal inventory in the million ton level, with the increase in the pressure of enterprise expansion, some oil mills passively reduce the operating rate, soybean meal accumulation rhythm slowed down, however, the inventory pressure is still high, many oil mills have obvious urging phenomenon!
At the same time, the domestic demand follow-up is relatively limited, the breeding end of the market performance in general, although, the price of pigs and eggs is higher, breeding profits have improved, however, the rhythm of pig production capacity, the hot weather has suppressed the sentiment of the market bar, feed and breeding industry demand is cautious, superimposed, soybean meal storage difficulty increases, mainstream enterprises are mainly just need to purchase!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, from a rational point of view, spot soybean meal will continue to be under pressure, although the cost support decline space or will be limited, but, due to the supply pressure, the market lacks the opportunity to rebound!
At the same time, in terms of domestic refined oil, a few days ago, the 13th oil price of the year rose, and No. 92 gasoline generally rose by 1.6~1.7 gross / liter, the cost of residents' travel increased significantly, and the market was looking forward to the decline of sentiment!
However, in the third quarter, domestic oil prices may enter a cycle of seasonal rises! It is understood that since the domestic oil price is based on the international crude oil price reference, every 10 working days, based on the change level of crude oil in the three places, the domestic oil price will be adjusted at the right time! According to the oil price adjustment plan, the oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on July 11!
From the market feedback, due to this Thursday, international oil prices rose sharply, WTI crude oil rose to $81.74, Brent crude oil rose to $86.39, crude oil comprehensive quotation at $84.07, the first working day after the end of this round of pricing cycle, oil prices rose 1.65%, gasoline and diesel prices rose to 80 yuan / ton, and the conversion price of No. 92 gasoline rose by about 6~7 points!
Now, oil prices are starting to rise, however, there is still uncertainty in the market as there are still 9 working days until the price adjustment!
In the international crude oil market, although the bullish sentiment of oil prices is strong, after all, under the situation of international geopolitical tensions, Eastern Europe and the Middle East are in turmoil, and there is a risk of interruption in energy supply. With the arrival of the peak season of summer energy consumption demand, the market is more optimistic about the peak driving expectations in North America, which supports the trend of strong oil prices!
However, in the short term, due to the Fed's "hawkish" remarks and the sharp rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, which suppressed the market's expectations for crude oil demand, international oil prices still have downward pressure!
Therefore, based on the international market long and short game, this cycle, the lack of a clear direction of adjustment of oil prices, the author will continue to pay attention to the development of the market, hope, in this round of the cycle of international oil prices more falling, domestic oil prices can rise less, the price adjustment time is July 11, in this regard, what do you think, what is the prospect of this round of oil prices?
Attached: On June 30, the price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations in all provinces and cities across the country!
End of this article, thanks for reading! Feel free to like, give a follow, follow, follow.