This morning, in "Important Highlights of A-shares Next Week: How to Fight the Turnaround Battle in July?" Two types of stocks will be the first to fight back! In the article, Jing Yang talked about the main opportunities and risks of the A-share market next week. According to Jingyang's analysis, although the market stopped falling on the 5-day line, there are signs of rekindling the electric fan market this week. Considering the current stock capital game pattern, if there is no new strong hot spot, I am afraid that the next operation will not be easy.
However, even in the electric fan market, we can still find several hot sectors with relatively large elasticity in the short term, such as semiconductors, Internet of Vehicles, and low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace that run through the main line throughout the year. In addition, after entering July, there is a topic that cannot be avoided in the market, that is, the performance wave of the report!
So, in this article, Jingyang will talk to you about how to catch this year's mid-term performance wave? How to find some stocks with high performance in advance?
First, the disclosure time of the Shanghai semi-annual report has been set, and some companies will submit the papers in advance!
This week, the latest news from the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that the 2024 semi-annual report of listed companies in Shanghai has been released, and Kangxin New Materials will release its semi-annual report on July 17, kicking off the disclosure of semi-annual reports of listed companies in Shanghai. The first semi-annual report of the company on the STAR Market will be released by Zhimingda on July 25. In a few days, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will also release the disclosure time of the semi-annual report, most of which will be around mid-July. And next week is the first week of July, there are still 2 trading weeks from mid-July, these two weeks will be the warm-up period of the market, some of the main performance of the newspaper is high, and the stock price in the first half of the year does not fluctuate too much, there is hope to become the focus of market attention.
For example, the first shot of Kangxin New Materials in Shanghai, the company's previous quarterly report shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the company will achieve a total operating income of 52.5059 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.35%; The net profit loss attributable to the parent company was 33.6483 million yuan. However, despite this, Kangxin New Materials also had a large limit on Friday! In the case of the growth of operating income in the first quarter but the loss of profits, the stock price of Kangxin New Materials is up and down, which mostly indicates that some funds have been informed in advance of the information that the company's reported performance may improve, so they will take advantage of the time difference to enter the market in advance. And Zhimingda, the first semi-annual report of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, also rose by 7.9% on Friday!
But that's not the highlight of this round of the market! According to Jingyang, a total of 33 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have taken the lead in disclosing the 2024 interim report forecast, and among these 33 companies, there are 11 listed companies with a net profit growth rate of more than 100%! Among the 11 companies that have reported a doubling of their performance, Kaizhong Precision has reported a net profit growth rate of about 10-14 times, and it has stepped out of the triple board this week! BIWIN's estimated net profit is between 280 million and 330 million, an increase of about 2 times, and this week it also bucked the trend to create a new high in the past 4 months! Nuotai Biological, the company expects the growth rate of reported net profit to be between 318% and 481%, and this week it has continued to rise against the trend, hitting a record high!
The stock prices of the above companies have changed significantly before and after the disclosure of the interim report, which shows that this year's interim market has begun to be restless in advance when everyone has not noticed! At present, the number of listed companies that have disclosed the interim report is only 33, which is less than 1% of all listed companies. From this, it can be judged that the big dishes of this year's mid-year market have not yet been served!
Let's look back at the first quarter of this year, the big leader is Zhengdan shares in chemical products, with a net profit of 58.99 million in the first quarter, an increase of 412% over the same period last year! Zhengdan shares are also the largest demon stocks in the A-share market in the first half of this year, and the stock price has risen by as much as 10 times in two or three months!
Since Zhengdan shares have given a sample of this year's performance wave, we have reason to believe that this year's interim market will not be weak!
Second, the basic investment logic of the performance wave!
When it comes to performance waves, the vast majority of investors will think that high performance is generally good, and the stock price can rise if it is good! But in Jingyang's view, this is only the most superficial cognition! In everyone's inherent impression, in the A-share market, the stock price of listed companies has little direct relationship with performance. For example, bank stocks with very good performance have maintained growth every year and have high net profits, but the stock price has never been able to rise.
The fundamental reason for the weak correlation between stock price and performance is the short-sighted investment strategy of domestic institutions. Especially after 2021, when a large number of junk stocks are listed in a centralized manner, domestic institutions are more inclined to speculate on the subject matter, and have no patience to stick to it in the white horse stocks. Because of this, after 2021, the value investment system of the A-share market will exist in name only!
But this does not mean that the performance of listed companies has nothing to do with stock price fluctuations, otherwise the above companies will not strengthen their stock prices because of their good performance!
So what is the relationship between the performance of listed companies and their stock prices? Jingyang reminds everyone that in the context of short-sighted institutional operations, the growth rate of net profit is positively correlated with the stock price, rather than the level of net profit! It is precisely because of this that many high-growth technology stocks in recent years have been the main hot spot of the market. Some slow-growing consumer sectors cannot arouse the interest of the main force!
After figuring out the most basic relationship between performance and stock price, Jingyang will talk to you about the 4 financial reports of listed companies: the first quarterly report, the interim report, the third quarterly report and the annual report! How should these 4 financial performance waves be treated?
Perhaps the vast majority of investors will think that among the four financial reports of listed companies, the most important thing should be the annual report of the current year. Because the annual report reflects the business situation of the year, it is a summary of the annual performance! But what Jingyang wants to tell you is that although the annual report covers the largest amount of information, it lacks one of the most critical things, that is, expectations! Because of the high increase in the annual report, it can only show that this company has done well in the past year, and it does not mean that it will still make a lot of money in the coming year! Therefore, many times, if a company with high performance performs well in the year, but after the annual report is disclosed, it will not rise but fall! On the surface, this is a good thing to do. But in fact, this is the market judgment, after the company's performance this year is high, due to the substantial increase in the performance base, then the growth rate will slow down next year!
In Jingyang's view, the stock price of many companies has fallen after disclosing their annual reports and high financial reports, which is also one of the main reasons why the market believes that the stock price of listed companies is not correlated with performance!
So who is the most important of these four financial reports? Without a doubt, the most important thing is a quarterly report! Because companies with high performance in the first quarter can often lay the foundation for high growth in annual performance, the stock price will benefit from the expectation of rapid growth in annual performance during the year, and has the potential to strengthen in the medium term. In addition to the first quarterly report, the second is the interim report, and what the interim report has to do is to screen some fish that have slipped through the net with high performance in the first quarter, but the stock price has not yet made a force! The annual report market, grasp the logic is similar to the interim report, you can only look for stocks with high performance, but the stock price has not started! In contrast, the lowest level of market attention is the third quarterly report!
Third, how to find high-growth stocks in advance with high performance?
After Jingyang briefly introduced the hype logic of the performance wave, he would like to share with you an important dry goods technique, how to lock in high-performance stocks in advance before the announcement of the interim report?
Speculating in stocks, speculating is expected, and it is also poor information! If you can't predict the performance of a company in advance, and wait for its financial report to land before chasing it, I'm afraid it will be difficult to catch up. First, before the financial report forecast lands, some prescient funds will lurk in advance; The second is that even if there is no capital lurking in advance, on the day of the disclosure of the excellent financial report, it will be strongly pulled by the capital, and will not give us ordinary retail investors any chance to get on the bus! Because of this, we need to dig out the high-growth stocks in advance in order to be able to lurk synchronously with the main force, or even ambush ahead of the main force!
Therefore, the investment skills to be shared below are important dry content, which you can record and keep, and you can use them when speculating on performance waves in the future!
First of all, we must know that listed companies have 4 financial reports every year. But in addition to these 4 financial reports, a preview will be released in advance a month before the financial report is disclosed! This teaser is the crux of the matter!
Under normal circumstances, the most difficult to judge the performance growth rate in advance is the quarterly report, when looking for a quarterly report performance high increase stocks, you can only borrow the quarterly report forecast of the listed company! In other words, after the disclosure of the first quarterly report, we will know which companies' quarterly reports have high growth expectations! However, in addition to the first quarterly report, the vast majority of listed companies can lock in the high growth target in advance before the next financial report forecast is disclosed! So how does it work, take this year's mid-year market as an example:
The first step is to find stocks with high profits in the first quarter! Since the quarterly report has been fully disclosed at the end of April this year, the quarterly report performance of all listed companies is now in a clear state, which is public information and is easy to find! Jingyang usually uses Dongcai to check the performance growth ranking, and it is very simple to see who is the company with the highest net profit growth rate of listed companies in the first quarter of this year?
The second step is to predict whether the interim performance can continue to increase through the quarterly report data of listed companies! Friends who have been paying attention to Jingyang know that Jingyang has been tracking memory chips recently, so let's take Longsys as an example to tell you about the skills. The software uses a straight flush, put F10 to open the basic information of Longsys, click on financial analysis, and then just look at a few sets of data!
The first group is net profit and non-net profit, and the non-net profit is the main performance, which we need to pay attention to, many companies have a high net profit, but the non-net profit is very low, indicating that the high performance is investment income or other one-time income, which is more difficult to sustain. Only companies that deduct non-net profit and net profit are about the same can be selected. The second group of net profit data for last year and this year, Longsys' net profit in the first quarter of this year was 384 million, the loss in the first quarter of last year was 281 million, the loss was 596 million in the middle of last year, and the annual performance loss was 828 million! Obviously, in the first quarter of this year, Longsys' performance has turned around significantly compared with last year, and because the memory chip industry has been continuing, then Longsys' interim performance must be higher than that of the first quarter! It is easy to come to a conclusion: Longsys not only reported a high turnaround in the first quarter, but also did not lose money in this year's interim report, third quarterly report and even annual report! I don't know if Jingyang has made it clear, you can also use this method to see the individual stocks in your hands and what is the performance of the report?
The third step is to combine stock price performance with performance expectations to find a target! There are many factors that affect the stock price of listed companies, including news, fundamentals, capital and technology. Therefore, we can't just rely on the earnings report to increase the number of stocks, but still have to combine the technical form and trading volume, and even the nature of the sector to do the final screening! In terms of technical form, the stocks in the unilateral downward channel have no bottoming signal, even if the performance is high, do not touch it; In terms of capital, the easiest thing is to look at the trading volume, and if the trading volume is too low, keep a wait-and-see position; In terms of plate attributes, Jingyang has talked to you many times before, high growth and strong cycle are the most preferred plates of the main force, such as Zhengdan shares, the leader of the first quarterly report, which is a strong cyclical plate! The more factors that are analyzed and considered, the greater the probability of finding the big bull stocks in advance!
Fourth, the list of high performance in the first quarter of 2024!
According to the above analysis, the first quarterly report is the basis for the high growth of the interim report. Therefore, Jingyang has compiled a list of stocks with the highest year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates in the first quarterly report, and you can follow the method taught by Jingyang above to further screen the list of potential high-growth stocks in the report. Then compare the industry attributes and stock price performance, and lay out the performance wave in advance!