If Germany had won the Battle of Kursk, would it have been able to turn the tide of the war if it had won the kind of Kiev siege?

‬在1943年7月份，德军在库尔斯克地区与苏军爆发了一场大规模会战，这一战是德军在东线发动的最后一场大规模进攻行动，本来希特勒希望通过一场基辅围歼战那样的胜利来彻底扭转战局，但是事与愿违，德国非但没有成功围歼苏军重兵集团，反而自身伤亡惨重，并且丢失了奥廖尔和哈尔科夫地区。 But if Germany had won the Battle of Kursk and successfully encircled and annihilated a Soviet front, would Germany have been able to turn the tide of the war?

‬1943年，苏军最危险的时候

Marshal Zhukov of the Soviet Union had already mentioned when he communicated with US General Eisenhower after the war that Zhukov believed that the most dangerous time for the Soviet Union was before and after the Battle of Kharkov. Marshal Manstein's Battle of Kharkov was the pinnacle of military operations from any point of view.

Manstein's backhand blow directly dispersed the forces that the Soviet Union had managed to gather, and the advantage gained by the Soviet army in the Battle of Stalingrad was instantly offset by the German army. Stalin was already red-eyed by this time, and he believed that as long as the Soviet army continued to advance, it was very likely that the German army would be driven out of the Soviet Union in 1943.

Since the Anglo-American military aid had not yet arrived on a large scale, everything in the rear of the Soviet Union was tightening its belts to support the front at this time, and in the words of the farmers of the collective farms at that time, every straw was used to support the front. It can be said that the Soviet Union survived 1941 and 1942 on its own.

‬如果德军成功了

If the Germans could really encircle and annihilate a large number of Soviet troops in the Battle of Kursk in 1943, then Germany really had hope of turning the tide of the war. Historically, Manstein had long planned to use a pincer offensive in the Kursk region to encircle and annihilate the Soviet army, after all, the Kursk salient was too suitable for encirclement and annihilation.

Historically, however, Manstein had planned to start the Battle of Kursk in April-May 1943, but Hitler refused to allow him, and he insisted on mass production of Tiger and Leopard tanks in the rear before launching Operation Bastion. This wasted the Germans' most valuable time, while giving the Soviets more time to build a defensive line.

But imagine that if Manstein really was allowed to attack while the Soviet army had not yet completed the defensive line, it would still be more promising to eat one of the Soviet fronts. At that time, the Soviet army invested 1.9 million Soviet troops during the Battle of Kursk, and these 1.9 million people were really the last elite of the Soviet army, many of whom were veterans from the Battle of Stalingrad, and the Soviet Union could not get elite troops in a short period of time.

Of course, even if Germany won the Battle of Kursk, Germany could only win the war, at that time Germany had not yet started the general mobilization, although the Soviet Union was able to explode troops faster than Germany, but Germany still had the possibility of obtaining a time lag for the Soviet army to recover its strength, using this time difference to play a local advantage, and then in the general mobilization to expand the advantage, and finally win the war.

‬历史上德国的底牌应该是要比苏联要对很多的，但是德国的体制决定了他不可能有效利用他自身的优势，就关说总动员，德国在1943年已经处于不利情况了才全面开启，之前一直都在用民营经济打仗，这就与德国的政治体制有关系。 In a word, the German system was the root cause of Germany's defeat, and even if Germany had won the Battle of Kursk against the odds, it had only partially hoped for victory in the war.