#长文创作激励计划#
Match 1: Spain vs Georgia
Match analysis: After a very different group stage, Spain and Euro 2024 underdogs Georgia will play a quarter-knockout match in Cologne.
While Spain made a big stride to top Group B with a 100% record, the Georgians quietly entered the knockout stages with a shocking victory over Portugal; The unlikely pair are now battling it out for a place in the quarter-finals.
Spain won all three group stage games at the European Championships for the first time since a brief period of world football supremacy began in 2008 and were capable of making 10 changes but still managed to emerge victorious from Monday's clash with Albania.
The top spot was already secured, so Luis de la Fuente used the opportunity to rotate his talented line-up, with Ferran Torres taking just 13 minutes to push Spain to the front, giving them a lead they would never give up.
Having taught defending champions Italy lessons at the Gelsenkirchen Stadium and beating Croatia in Berlin, Spain are now in the knockout stages of a major tournament for the fifth time in a row, the seventh in eight years.
As one of the favourites for this tournament, they find themselves in what is widely considered to be a difficult semi-final stage, with the possibility of a quarter-final against hosts Germany and possibly a semi-final against France.
Under de la Fuente, Spain have reinvigorated and switched to a more direct style of play, with the Spanish team yet to concede a single goal, the last time Spain did not concede a goal in a major final was in 2012, when they had just conquered Europe.
However, before lifting the European Championship trophy again, Spain will have to improve on their performances at Qatar 2022, where they were knocked out of the round of 16 and knocked out by Morocco, where they once again face in-form newcomers Georgia.
Spain have won six of their seven matches against Georgia in all competitions so far, including in Euro Championship qualifying, with Spain winning both games by a total of eight goals – 7-1 away and 3-1 at home.
—— Why Spain will win ——
Spain scored five goals in the group stage, but only four goals were excluded from own goals. Impressively, four different players scored their other four goals. Start with Álvaro Morata. He has been one of the best players in Spain and one of their top scorers in international competitions. So far, he has scored one goal in the game, eight shots on goal and four on target. Alvaro Morata's expected goals tally will also reach 1. In addition, Fabian Ruiz, Ferran Torres and Dani Carvajal have all scored in each of those games.
Fabian Ruiz has also added assists in those games and has been excellent at pushing the pace of the game. In those games, he got 18 offensive passes and had 3 shots on target. What is more encouraging for Spain's attack should be their expected goals, which they can exploit. Spain's expected aggregate goals tally for the group stage stands at 5.5. Pedri led by 0.7 expected, but he did not score in the group stage.
Spain also defended well. Unai Simon has been outstanding in both of his bouts. He blocked five shots and saved a penalty. The player scored 2.5 expected goals against Simon in the match and conceded no goals. In front of him, Marc Kurella behaved greatly. So far, he has four interceptions, seven successful tackles and three clearances.
In fact, the heavy defeat in European Championship qualifying was the only time Georgia conceded seven goals in a national team match, but their remarkable campaign since that setback has put them in the spotlight like never before.
After narrowly qualifying for the playoffs via a penalty shootout, the dynamic team led by Willy Paniol are now in the knockout stages of Georgia's first major tournament analysis, largely thanks to an incredible victory on Wednesday night.
In the final match of Group F, Georgia took on Portugal, who had already qualified for the knockout rounds, Georgia capitalised on two defensive errors by Portugal and Kwiča Kvaratskhelia scored a shocking goal, the fastest goal of the tournament so far, while George Mikotadze will continue to work hard for the Golden Boot.
After setting the first goal for Georgia, Metz striker Mikautaze calmly converted a second-half penalty to lead his side to a stunning victory, having played a direct role in all four of Georgia's goals at Euro 2024.
Building on his excellent performance at full-time, George Mamadashvili's outstanding performance on goal played a crucial role in the night, which was also impressive in the opening defeat to Turkey and then the 1-1 draw with the Czech Republic.
Georgia has so far had the most shots on goal (71), the most shots on goal (25) and the highest of any team participating in the European Championship in Germany; But Sagnol's side won't be too worried, having already come into the spotlight by toppling the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo
Georgia's only win over Spain came in a long-forgotten 2016 friendlie, but the Georgians, who had just shocked Portugal, came to uncharted waters and may believe a quarter-final spot is not entirely in their hands.
—— Why Georgia Won ——
Georgia on the back of George Mamadashvili. He was excellent against Portugal and conceded just a few goals in the group stage. With an expected total of 7.5 goals, just one more goal could knock Georgia out of the tournament. In the match, he will block 21 of 25 shots on goal. Portugal's expected goals total was close to 2, but he kept a clean sheet and emerged victorious.
The other main player is George Mikotadze. He had three goals, including two penalties, and he converted both chances. He also has assists. In addition, his expected goals and assists total is just 2.8, but he scored four in the group stage. The team's other goal came from Kvaratskhelia, who scored a goal in the game.
Another major factor for Georgia is the counterattack. This was led by George Mamadashvili. He made 17 offensive passes in the group stage and often helped out on fast serves.
—— Forecast ——
While Spain are the most likely to win this game, Georgia's counter-attack is threatening. They are strong in defensive midfield, which leads to open chances. That's how they had so many chances against Portugal and how they scored so quickly. Portugal and Spain are similar in strength at this European Championship, so it's not impossible for Georgia to have a counter-attacking goal. Still, with Spain's quality, they can still come out on top in this one.
After a historic night at the Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Georgia could be brought back to reality by a fluent Spain side with the potential to claim Euro 2024 glory.
One of Georgia's formidable strikers may be on the scoring charts again, but Spain seem to be focused on reaching the European Championship final and opening up even the most disciplined of backlines.
Recommend:
Look for Spain to win 2-0 3-0 3-1