For people who are too professional in a single industry, no matter how well they do, they can't break the game in a downturn.
I don't know if you can understand this sentence, if you can't, then go ahead and look at it.
Before we get down to business, let's take a look at history, a history that many people who are alive today know. If you don't know, then you can check it yourself and see if what I said is true.
Let's talk about the earlier ones, the foreign ones.
Lamplighters, more than 100 years ago, in Western countries, there were lamplighters, they had to set up ladders at night to light the street lamps by lighting fires, and before sunrise, they went out again. Influenced by electric lights, lamplighters, this profession disappeared.
Elevator attendant, this still existed in our country 30 years ago, large venues, public institutions, high-end hotels, in the eighties and nineties, there are elevator attendants, as the elevator becomes more and more popular, the public has an operational cognition, this profession has disappeared.
Train ticket sales points, the hardest hit areas of queuing before the Spring Festival and long holidays, many people queue up at 2 o'clock in the morning to buy tickets, and it is also the most profitable time for scalpers in the train ticket sales industry. With the development of mobile internet and software, it is gone.
In the eighties and nineties, there were film shops all over the streets, and at that time, you had to go to the film shop to develop after taking pictures, and Kodak opened all over the streets and alleys, especially in tourist attractions, and the development of film and film sales was a lucrative existence. With the development of digital cameras, after taking pictures, the AD card is directly stored on the AD card, the card reader is directly stored on the computer hard drive, and the film processing shop is gone.
Computer desktops, Acer, Lenovo, Tongchuang, etc. are all over the streets, the popularity of Windows is to set off a nationwide computer climax, learning, games, networking, China has opened the Internet era, but with the continuous iteration of notebooks, networks, and smart phones and tablets, desktops, is withdrawing from the stage of history.
Instant noodles and takeaways, taxis and shared mopeds as well as driverless, AutoNavi Maps with Baidu Maps software and paper maps with navigation hardware. Newspapers, magazines, mobile Internet self-media, etc., etc., etc., there are too many.
It's just too much
I would like to ask, do you still use candles?
Even if the power goes out now, will you still use candles?
Where do you go to buy candles now? In popular life, can you still find out that candlesticks exist?
Aromatherapy? Birthday cake?
Got it?
was eliminated.
No matter how good your service is in the elevator, you are an excellent employee or even a store manager at the train ticket sales point, no matter how professional you are when you open a desktop repair shop or film processing shop, no matter how good the service is, no matter how you do drainage, make discounts, and work hard. No matter how hard you work to break the game, how to find cooperation, find opportunities...
Is it still useful?
You may be strong, maybe you are the leader in this industry, not because you don't work hard, not because you are not professional, but because you are too single, the more singular you are, the more difficult it is to break the game.
Yes, you are confined to it.
Speaking of Islam training
Many big names of education brands, principals of many chain campuses, and even many master operators of education and training operations have this limitation.
It's hard to say, but 95% is there, you may think it's a lot, but I'll tell you not much.
People in the education and training industry, no matter what position you do, no matter how good you are, the longer you do it, the more difficult it is to break through the education and training itself.
Unless you have a lot of money, you are very rich, you transform you to go to sea.
Otherwise, you're going to have to run all day.
Education and training have not been eliminated, especially offline education and training.
The following is the news that has just come out, Tengxin Online Classroom will be closed immediately.
Note that Tencent Classroom is mainly for adult training.
Recharge, Boost, Career, Design and much more.
Adult, to close.
Let's not analyze the specific reasons for its closure
For Tencent's system and volume, at least one thing is certain
That is: no money, no growth.
Not making money means that the continuous profit does not meet expectations or even reaches the passing grade, and the lack of growth means that this situation will not improve for a long time.
This is the underlying logic of closing
Make money now, you may not make money in the future, you don't develop, you ride a donkey and find a horse, at least you are still making money now.
If you don't make money now, you will develop in the future, you can make money, do it, borrow money to finance it, and you have to do it.
If you don't make money now, you won't make money in the future, and if you don't develop in the future, you will definitely not do it, even if you have money in your hands now, you won't do it.
This truth is said in the vernacular, do you think it is simple and easy to understand?
Online and offline, there is no conflict, in fact, they coexist.
You and I are both doing the same kind of business, and there is no conflict, but in fact, they coexist.
Non-disciplines and disciplines, the general environment of education and training is not good, and it is sluggish, why is it sluggish?
Is it eliminated in the downturn? Is there no demand for sluggishness?
Or is it like retail e-commerce squeezing retail brick-and-mortar stores, squeezed by the downturn online?
Neither.
So
Does the demand exist? Think about what you're doing, can it last? Let you live at least another 10 years?
What can replace you in this decade?
What replaces you? Conveniently replace yours? Replace you on price? Replace you in efficiency?
Replacing yours, from online? Offline?
And if it's online? Why has online education not been able to win offline for 10 years?
What replaces you offline? AI intelligent robots? Just like in science fiction films, a humanoid robot is relatively affectionate and warm and safely guides and accompanies children to learn? And even if there were, how many years would it take, and how much would it cost? How many people can be popularized? Or is it just a humanoid learning machine to send you away?
Can someone replace you? Who can replace you? Who else is more professional than you? The teacher in the school doesn't do it? Public schools are closed? Or did a large number of people go as tutors? How many people would like someone else to come to their home? My child doesn't need a tutor, I just want to learn art, play the piano, learn dance, play programming, what do I need a tutor for? Even if tutoring begins to be popular on a large scale, you can do it, and it won't replace you, after all, tutoring is a very small minority of customers, and it is not allowed to be big and violated.
Non-subject courses in public schools? Yes, but when will the school open? Absolutely not let go on holidays and weekends, after school on weekdays? It's been around for a long time, it's been a few years, has the off-campus training been eliminated because of this?
Peer competition? It is true that you don't learn to be divided, but you must have less competition, and there are fewer people in this field, and there are more people who appear, relatively speaking, your competition should be smaller.
Study room? There's a Mao relationship with your training? That's for a small group of adults and a small number of objectively existing areas and students.,Can't form a scale.,At most, it's cutting leeks.,Good subject study rooms are also secretly taught.,Who goes if you don't teach?
Adult study room? I might as well go to Douyin to learn, why don't I go to a McDonald's café and bring a noise-canceling headphones to learn.
If so, what does the product that replaced you look like now? Where does it come from?
Will express stations be affected by convenience stores? It's very likely, it has appeared a long time ago, and convenience stores are doing express delivery and delivery business in order to enter the store.
Is breakfast affected by convenience stores? Yes, Beijing and Shanghai have been there for a long time, and convenience stores have been selling steamed buns and selling porridge for breakfast, how many years.
Elimination will not come from your own industry.
It will not be new energy vehicles that will eliminate fuel vehicles
The one who eliminated Mixue Bingcheng will not be the overlord tea girl
Laptops will not be tablets
It is not a mobile phone that obsolete it
If offline education and training are eliminated, it will not be online education and training
Elimination comes from the development of science and technology, thereby driving the progress of productivity, from convenience, from lower cost and more efficient, the main demand will never change, the action and process of the main demand will only shift, and the demand will be transferred to the scene.
I need to take pictures, I just don't need to rinse.
I need to play games, I just don't need a desktop
I need to buy a ticket, but I don't need to go to a sales agency
I need to eat a big meal, but I don't need the waiter to hold the order book and wait for me to order and then record it
I need a discount, but I don't need to go to your store to get a coupon
I need data management, but I don't need to hire another employee to do it.
I need data to be recorded and archived, but I don't need to be recorded in a paper book.
I need to take a taxi, but I don't need to wait on the side of the road and then stop it
I need to buy crocs, but I don't need to buy it in a physical store, I went to the physical store to try it on, and I was satisfied and went to JD.com's self-operated brand store to buy the same model, and the price was low and delivered to my home.
There are some industries that cannot be disrupted, never will, as long as society is still made up of human beings, it is impossible.
Some things, as long as there are people, will not be subverted.
These things are extremely experiential
For you, this kind of experientiality, which is something that real world people have to participate in to solve, is enough, at least for decades without being subverted.
For example, fishing, sports, tourism, education, catering.
I believe that sooner or later, algorithm update + popularization of intelligent AI products + humanoid robot + manufacturing transformation + industrial structure upgrading + Internet
You can look at each of the above steps, how many years does it take?
Not to mention, the humanoid robot that can serve human life alone will take a long time, and it will also need mass production, verification trial and error, and the continuous iteration of materials will continue to reduce the high cost in order to apply it to the public, and then introduce it to seize the market.
AI intelligence is developing rapidly, AI learning ability and algorithms are constantly improving, but when it needs to be flexible, AI is the same, and the strongest AI in the Olympiad is only 30 points. The college entrance examination is only more than 500 points.
AI is still very early in catching up with people, and no matter how it is developed, algorithm-based AI will never be able to run algorithms.
Will massage be replaced? Yes, although there are endless massage products nowadays, it is a pity that they cannot be like people. Sooner or later, though, massage will be replaced.
But the demand for massage will never be subverted, I believe that sooner or later manual massage may be replaced by machines, after all, the massage process is basically a standard process.
It's just that it's still very early, because the force on different parts of each person is different, everyone's body shape is different, fat, thin, tall and short are different.
I need to drink milk tea, I don't want to wait, I can place an order online, but I can't drink milk tea online, how to drink it?
The demand has not changed, but the action and process of obtaining this demand have shifted.
I used to go to the store to buy it, but now I have it delivered to takeout.
The demand for drinking milk tea has not changed, it was in demand before, and it is in demand now.
In the bureau of education and training, the people in the education and training cannot break it.
Because the people in the education and training are still doing the things in the education and training, and breaking the situation and subverting it come from the outside, they don't understand the outside, they only understand the inside, no matter how strong they are, it's useless.
This sentence, remember death, this is the same as closing the country, even if you achieve the position of president in a certain country, you are the best in this country at most, and it is impossible for you to break the situation.
Therefore, the longer a single industry is done, the more difficult it is to break through.
Regardless of whether it is a discipline or a non-discipline in the education and training industry, the current breakthrough problem is not in the industry knowledge system of education and training at all, but in the business knowledge system.
That is, a higher dimension, this dimension is business, market, industrial institutions, economics, psychology, future development, strategic development, social class, related economy, industrial chain, etc
If you don't understand this, you can only go around in circles in the education and training circle.
You can only talk about drainage, operation, enrollment, and summer classes.
When it rains, you'll just hold an umbrella, and if you don't have one, you'll have to look for something else to shelter from the rain.
You don't think about the rain at all, in fact, the rain is also an opportunity.
Don't be bound by industry experience, or when the industry really encounters a crisis, you will only be left with anxiety.
There are a lot of problems that no one can solve at the moment, and anxiety is useless.
At last
The course for the personal studio has been recorded, from the preparation to set up the personal studio, all the way to the later expansion, this audio course is available, it will be on the shelves next week, and it will take a few days to review.
Live broadcast from time to time every morning, and friends who do education and training can come to the live broadcast room to chat.
