We have learned since childhood that China's population is very large and can be among the best in the world.
However, according to the latest UN World Population Prospects 2022, China's demographic situation by 2050 will be very unexpected.
Population is linked to the reset of the world's power in the coming decades, and if it is not handled well, the social structure of the world may change dramatically in the future.
At present, China is facing a critical period, the fertility rate is declining, the aging rate is accelerating, and how to deal with this situation can be said to determine the future.
In the past, China relied on a huge labor group to create a miracle of economic development, but now it has to face the reality that the demographic dividend is gradually weakening.
This prediction of the United Nations is a direct reflection of the new obstacles in our country's path forward and prompts us to think about how to respond.
How can we sustain economic growth while stimulating people's willingness to have children, and ensure that the balance of society passed on from generation to generation is not broken?
This is a problem that has to be faced, with a series of changes, the phenomenon of "cutting off children and grandchildren" can still be saved!
First, the population of the mainland began to grow negatively
In 2022, the change in the growth of Chinese's population has been unprecedentedly special, and for the first time, the number of people has been recorded in a year.
The number of new children has plummeted to 9.56 million, while the elderly population is growing.
The contrast is stark, with the country's total population 850,000 fewer than last year.
2023 will be even more terrifying, with 2.08 million fewer people.
Since 1978, China's economy has soared, while the pace of industrialization and urbanization has accelerated dramatically.
But then everyone's thinking about having children and their attitude towards life has also changed. As the days go by, education becomes more and more accessible.
In particular, girls can also get more opportunities to learn, and the idea of having children has gradually changed from "the more children the more blessings" to "quality is more important than quantity".
Now parents are more concerned about how to give their children a better education and live a better life, rather than just thinking about having a few more children.
As soon as this idea changed, the desire to have a child naturally dropped, and the plan to have a baby was very different from before.
In our original culture, getting married and having children was like a task in life, and this life would be incomplete if it could not be completed.
However, young people nowadays have a variety of ideas, and they are increasingly pursuing individuality and the quality of their own lives, and it has become common for them to marry later and have children later.
With such a developed Internet, the younger generation has a wider horizon and wants to live a wonderful life, and the concept of finding a partner and starting a family has changed.
For many young people who work hard in the city, whether to have children must be carefully considered, to see if they are willing or not, and whether the conditions allow it.
The competition for work is so fierce and the social pressure is so great, many young couples decided to put the matter of having children on the go first.
Or simply don't think about having children, focus on your career first, and live your own life.
Second, the United Nations predicts the Chinese population in 2050
According to World Population Prospects: The 2022 Revision, there is a notable statement in the report.
It is said that around 2050, the world's population will skyrocket to 9.7 billion, and by the end of this century, it will exceed the 10 billion mark.
This prediction is based on the speed and number of children that vary from country to country. Following China and India, the main force of global fertility will shift to Africa.
China's previous family planning did not make the population rise as fast.
However, as soon as many people see the recent decline in the fertility rate, they begin to shout that they will "cut off their children and grandchildren" in the future, which is a bit unnecessary.
In fact, China is slowly easing restrictions on children and finding ways to restore population growth.
On the other hand, India is now the second most populous country in the world, with more than 1.4 billion people in 2022.
The population of Africa is growing very fast, and in 2022, there were about 1.4 billion people in Africa.
The number is estimated to double to about 2.4 billion by 2050. Nigeria is an economic leader in Africa and its population is growing rapidly, reaching more than 200 million people in 2022.
While the overall population growth on the planet has slowed, it is still rising in countries like India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United States, which have more children.
Projections show that our country's population will be only about 1.3 billion by 2050.
So while it is an exaggeration to say that "children and grandchildren will be cut off", it does reflect that the population problem can no longer wait.
3. Why don't you want to give birth?
The perception of young people in China about having children is indeed unprecedented, and this is a particularly important reason behind the decline in the number of people.
This generation of young people has lived in the era of economic development and information technology since childhood, and their ideas, attitudes towards life and plans for the future are very different from those of the older generation.
These different ideas are directly reflected in their decisions about whether to have children or not, and how many to have.
As university attendance has become more common, young people have become more educated and more attentive to their work plans.
At work, everyone is desperate to study for a higher degree, accumulate experience, and want to climb up, which is also a sign of self-motivation.
In this way, having children becomes a matter that affects their future, and even makes the planned career path unstable.
Many young people are afraid that if they have to put their jobs off once they have children, they may fall behind the times, and when they return to work, they will basically not be promoted.
Therefore, they will either have children later or have fewer children, so that these things will not interrupt their career development, and they will have the opportunity to go to higher places.
Although the economy is growing rapidly, it also brings up the cost of living in all aspects, especially in the big cities.
The cost of raising a child is frighteningly high, including expensive houses, education expenses, medical expenses, and various small expenses every day, and the total is hundreds of thousands.
Many young people earn a lot of money, but they still feel that their wallets are tight when they have to raise one or several children and spend a lot.
For them, having a child is not only as simple as affection and inheritance, but also a complex arithmetic problem, and they have to find a balance between living well and wanting to have children.
Many people are worried that once they have children, their current living standards will have to drop a lot, and they will have to take out loans to enjoy playing and entertainment.
Now that the social climate is open, young people are more self-oriented.
They want to have a little more free time and space to realize their own value, and they don't want to be tied to the responsibility of supporting their families.
Having a child means that your time will be greatly reduced, your freedom will be limited, and the whole rhythm of life will change. Don't want children to have more money just to be able to live more comfortably.
These conveniences and happiness in some ways replaced the warmth and comfort given by the previous family, and everyone was not so anxious to start a family and have children.
In addition, you can see stories everywhere on the Internet about how difficult it is to raise a child, and how much it costs to raise a child.
There are also many people who have children who say that the educational environment is unfair and unfair, which makes young people more careful about whether they want to have children.
Nowadays, many young people feel that marriage should not be a task that must be done in life, but must wait until their relationship and life are stable and they really want to get married.
For them, a marriage that has no emotional foundation or a weak economic foundation is simply unacceptable.
Even if they are forced to get married on a blind date, the two people have no emotional foundation, and they both get married and have children in order to complete the task, and there will be many quarrels, and it is easy to divorce, which is not good for the children.
Fourth, the last straw that crushed the desire to have children
The combination of the above reasons has made many people not want to touch the topic of children, but there are still many people who are ready to move.
But even these people, who have a little bit of a desire to have children, have given up the last bit of thinking of having children after knowing the urgency of the next issue.
What is the problem, that is, "education involution", to put it bluntly, there are not enough educational resources, everyone can only grab it, which makes parents and children very stressed, not only have no money, but also feel tired.
There are few good schools, and everyone wants their children to squeeze in, so parents have to work hard. In this way, the financial pressure on the family is great, and it also affects the desire to have children.
Many families are thinking, if there is another one, will this fire pit of educational competition be jumped again?
There is a shortcut, that is, "school district housing", which can open the door of a good school, but this school district housing is getting more and more expensive, and ordinary families can't afford it.
Just in order for their children to go to a prestigious school, parents have to empty their pockets to buy a house in the school district, even if they have to save other expenses, they have to bear a heavy mortgage.
School district housing not only makes housing prices rise, but also divides people into three, six, nine, etc., children from rich families are more likely to go to good schools, and children from poor families have even more slim opportunities.
Young people have a headache when they see this, and raising an extra child is not only to open more mouths to eat, but also to pay more money for a better education for the child.
And revolve around the child's study all day long, and he cares too much about the score, and the family speaks with the smell of gunpowder, and the family affection is weakened.
So they came up with a brilliant solution, which was not to give birth. But this situation is not unsolvable.
Many people still like children, as long as they can solve the problems they are worried about, these people are still the main force of childbearing.
epilogue
Although the United Nations forecast is based on the population situation more than a decade ago, it is still of great reference significance for us now and even in the future.
You see that the more children a country has, the more backward the economy is, and this is the same for a family, the more children there are, the lower the quality of life.
Fortunately, now the government has also seen it, and without further ado, it has launched the "three-child policy", and there is also a set of supporting measures.
There is only one purpose, that is, to lighten the burden of supporting the family, so that everyone is more willing to have babies, and not let such a thing as "cutting off children and grandchildren" happen.
References:
Aunt Zhang2023-04-22 - How many people will be left in China by 2050? The United Nations has made bold predictions, and the answers are incredible
Co Says Finance2023-04-03 - How many people will be left in China by 2050? The United Nations has made bold predictions, and the answers are incredible
2024-01-17 - In 2023, the national population will decrease by 2.08 million, with negative growth for two consecutive years, and 9.02 million births
Li Lu's Lecture2024-06-15 - How many people will there be in China by 2050? The United Nations makes bold predictions, and the answers will surprise you