Because the former Iranian President Raisi was unfortunately killed in the previous helicopter "hard landing", Iran launched a new round of presidential election ahead of schedule. The general analysis of the outside world believes that because Raisi himself is quite capable and the cooperation between him and Khamenei can be said to complement each other, it is very likely that Raisi will continue to be re-elected as president of Iran and maintain the current overall pattern of Iran. However, Raisi's sudden death not only made Iran start a new round of presidential election campaign, but also caused a certain degree of uncertainty in Iran and even the situation in the Middle East.
Many people may know that Iran in the Middle East can actually be said to be "between the East and the West" from many angles, and in addition to the people who are more tough on the United States and the West in the traditional impression of Iran, there are actually a group of people who advocate strengthening cooperation and even reconciliation with the West, the former is represented by the famous "tough guys in the Middle East" Ahmadinejad and Raisi, while the latter is represented by Khatami and Rouhani and others. And this Iranian presidential election campaign will eventually be fought between these two forces.
On June 29, local time, the Iranian side announced that the first round of vote counting in the Iranian presidential election has ended, and the top two candidates will continue to participate in the second round of competition. These two are the current first vote-getter former Iranian Health Minister Pezeshkian (10415991 votes) and the second-largest vote-getter former Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Jalili (9473298 votes), and the two will enter the second round of voting, which means that the future Iranian president will be elected from these two people.
Jalili (left) and Pezeshkian (right)
And these two are representatives of Iranian "moderates" and "hardliners" who advocate détente with the West, so what are the two people's claims?
Let's talk about the "moderates" first, and the former Iranian health minister Pezeshkian, who is now the first to win the vote, is the representative of the Iranian "moderates". This person has several characteristics that are worth mentioning, first of all, this person is a doctor, and also served as the president of the Tabriz Medical University in Iran, and later served as the Iranian Minister of Health. In addition, this person is not a Persian, but an Iranian Azerbaijani, and his mother is a Kurd. This status has also won Pezeshkian the support of many Iranians, Azerbaijanis, Kurds, and other non-Persians.
This person has always advocated that Iran should reconcile with the West and prioritize the lifting of Western sanctions against Iran. Therefore, outside analysts believe that once this person is elected, it is very likely that Iran will actively promote the Iran nuclear deal, engage in dialogue and communication with the West, and strengthen cooperation with the West. Obviously, this will have a certain impact on the current international situation.
In addition, on Iran's own affairs, Pezeshkian's views are very different from Raisi's. Not only did he publicly say that many of the actions of the Iranian security forces were too tough, but he also said that there should be no drastic measures against "women wearing headscarves". In addition, most likely because of this person's Azerbaijani identity, he also advocates increasing the autonomy of Iran's own Kurds, Azerbaijanis, Turks.
The usually tough Jalili, on the other hand, is a completely different from Pezeshkian, a man from a military background who fought in the Iran-Iraq war and lost his right calf in the war, and now walks on a prosthetic leg. Jalili has served as Iran's deputy foreign minister and presidential adviser to former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and has always advocated being tough on the West. Someone once said: "If you compare Hamas's 'Al-Aqsa flood' operation to a man, he is Jalili". It can be seen that Jalili's hard-line style is indeed notoriously tough
Some relevant Iranian people pointed out that since the Iran-Iraq war actually took place after the United States and the West supported Iraq's initiative to attack Iran, Jalili, who had been injured by the war between the Iran-Iraq war, naturally did not have any good feelings toward the United States and the West, and as long as he held talks with representatives of the United States and Western countries, then "the experience of the war would certainly be remembered in his mind." This is very likely to make Jalili appear aggressive when he communicated with the United States and the West in the past. In fact, it is indeed because of Jalili's excellent performance in the game and negotiation with the United States and the West that he has gained considerable prestige and is deeply appreciated by Khamenei.
Jalili believes that although the Western sanctions on Iran are very severe, Iran is not incapable of overcoming these sanctions, so Iran does not need to focus on compromising or making concessions to the West in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions, but should focus on building Iran's "national capacity" to defeat and overcome the Western system in other ways, rather than hoping that the West will lift sanctions. Therefore, if Jalili is elected president of Iran, it is very likely that Iran will continue the uncompromising and unyielding line of the previous Raisi era and continue to deal with the United States and the West in a tough way.
Of course, Khamenei is still the de facto "helmsman" of Iran, but Khamenei is now very old, and Iran's future president can still play a role in the country's relations with the international community. Therefore, it is also necessary to pay attention to the process and outcome of the Iranian presidential election campaign. Although Iran's "moderates" are temporarily ahead, the results may not change in the next second round of voting, so we will wait and see.